New Hampshire may be Haley’s last chance to win the presidency
Chris Christie and the New Hampshire Electoral Race: Where are we going? Who’s going? What’s next? How Will we vote? How far can we go?
Scala: I saw a mailer that came from Trump’s super PAC on one side was Chris Christie, and it described Chris Christie as the only anti-Trump Republican in the race. The true anti- Trump Republican. The other side of the mailer stated that the woman was a Republican and called her a “MAGA Republican”. And now of course, that mailer came a little bit late. But what’s the psychology of the Chris Christie voter who’s been left at the altar, so to speak, right?
While New Hampshire certainly features a more moderate electorate than Iowa, there may be a ceiling to Haley’s potential support. New Hampshire has had surprises in the presidential election before Tuesday’s vote.
You wrote in September, “It’s exceedingly hard to build a campaign here to connect with citizens and make their presence known in communities.” Does that end up being the case in New Hampshire? How has the primary system changed over the past few decades? I know those are two questions, but just kind of wanted your take about that.
Scala: I would say, OK, since I wrote that of the campaigns out there, I think Haley was trying to make the most strides in building local organization. I did see a couple of Trump canvassers this week. I guess the difference between Haley and, say, campaigns of bygone years is building that local organization would’ve started months earlier than it did this time around.
“This race is effectively over,” he explained of the delegate math. “I mean, even if Nikki Haley can win in New Hampshire, she’ll still have a real uphill slog. She will have to win her home state of South Carolina at the end of February.
Even if winning New Hampshire weren’t a reach, Ben Ginsberg, a retired Republican attorney who is a leading expert on the nominating process, says the deck is already stacked against her.
It seems like it’s going down party lines if it’s gonna be Biden or Trump. I don’t think anyone feels very good about those choices. This is the thing we have. Maybe not.
Are You Afraid of Being Shocked in November? An NPR Analysis of the SuperPAC Ads Against New Hampshire
“Do you want to be scared in November or not?” she asks in a call and response near the end of her stump speech. “Do you want your kids to be proud in November or not? Then let’s do it.”
That is among the $31 million in ads Haley and her allied super PACs have run in New Hampshire. More than $5 million of it in the past week according to an NPR analysis of data from the tracking firm Ad Impact. Trump and his allies have spent about half as much.
He says that now is the time to reset the election for the entire country. Nikki is the only one who can defeat Donald Trump.
That is, he said, “If enough Republicans and independents get a sense of sanity back and are less interested in drama and just pettiness. We’re tired of pettiness. That’s what Haley would take away from us.
The Democratic Party did not include New Hampshire in its primary this year, because it helped propel Biden into the party’s nomination.
The former governor of South Carolina made her pitch to republican voters at Grill 603 that she was the most electable candidate in the race.
She was talking about a general election result and not the primary, but it’s not clear which poll she was referring to. There aren’t any public polls showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. At multiple daily events in the lead up to the primary, Haley has tried to connect one on one with potential supporters, including 10-year-old Hadley Craig.
“I have told you that from the beginning, I want to be strong in Iowa.” Haley snapped at reporters when they asked about her path to victory.
In 2008, it was the reverse. Hillary Clinton was answering a question when she got emotional. That gained lots of attention and may have actually turned around her fortunes in the Granite State.
The First 100 Years of Democratic Primary Elections: New Hampshire’s First-in-the-Nation Voting Status and a Case Study with a “Fruit” Muskie
“It changed people’s minds about me, what type of guy I was, at that moment in time,” Muskie said. I was weak because they were looking for a strong man.
There are a couple of examples that stand out. It included a hoax letter that actually was planted by Republican Richard Nixon’s campaign. It falsely accused a leading Democratic candidate, Edmund Muskie, of using an ethnic slur that led Muskie to (maybe) cry in a public outburst, while also defending his wife, whom a local newspaper accused of liking “to tell dirty jokes and smoke cigarettes.”
The presidential primary election will take place on the second Tuesday in March or on a date the secretary of state can choose, which will coincide with a similar election in other states.
New Hampshire has voted first in primaries for more than 100 years. The state has traditionally taken the kind of retail campaigning and town halls that people pride in to win the state. New Hampshire has had a streak of bucking traditions, as Trump has upended those traditions with less of those kind of events.
The impact of that had been felt by both the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats made some changes in order to open up the primary process. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status was threatened by more states gaining influence.
During the Vietnam War, Lyndon Johnson narrowly defeated Eugene McCarthy, an early indicator of how unpopular he was with his party. LBJ decided against running. Despite his popularity with Democrats, McCarthy was not invited to the 1968 Democratic convention. The party selected Hubert Humphrey as its nominee, and that inflamed an already volatiles situation in Chicago outside the convention hall between police and protesters.
It had a major impact very quickly. In 1952, with the Korean War continuing, Democratic President Harry Truman was unpopular and lost the New Hampshire primary. He wouldn’t run for reelection. Eisenhower won the Republican Party’s nomination, despite being seen as the establishment’s choice.
It’s why former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu used to say about the two early nominating states that “Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks presidents.”
It has resurrected the campaigns of people who thought they had left the race in the primary. John McCain, who was running out of money and lagging in the polls, went on to win the Republican nomination in 2008, after holding more town halls in New Hampshire than anyone else.
Bill Clinton’s closer-than-expected second-place finish in 1992 led to him being labeled the “Comeback Kid,” and he won the nomination. AfterBarack Obama’s surprise win in Iowa, Bill Clinton’s wife, Hillary, was in a close race in the polls. But Hillary Clinton pulled out the victory in New Hampshire. While she didn’t win the nomination, her New Hampshire win gave new life to her campaign and led to the long, drawn-out primary fight that ensued.
This is not the same as the Iowa caucuses. In New Hampshire, independents are allowed to vote in either party’s primary, as long as they are not Democrats or Republicans.
More moderate, suburban and less religious set of Republican voters in Iowa make up 42% of the state’s registered voters more so than in the state’s unofficial voters.
For Democrats, it’s a similar number — 21 people, including the likes of Paperboy Love Prince, Vermin Supreme, self-help author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. Who it won’t include is President Biden.
The party establishment has to hope that the write-in campaign for Biden succeeds. It would be a major problem for the president.
The New Hampshire Primaries: Election Results and Polling Times for Dixville Notch, a Local Town with a Record Turnout of 322,000
A $5 million ad buy in New Hampshire by the wealthy former co owner of Talenti Gelato and a group supporting him includes a man in a Big Foot outfit.
Secretary of State David Scanlan is predicting a record turnout of 322,000 for the GOP primary. The Republican turnout record is 282,979 set in 2016. New Hampshire traditionally has been one of the states with the highest participation rates in the country.
This is especially true in the case of Dixville Notch, which gained fame because it had predicted the eventual Republican nominee in every election from 1968 to 2012. That was broken in 2016 when it allied with Kasich. But the town, which is only 20 miles from the Canadian border, only has a population of 5. The vote for Kasich was not unanimous.
The flexibility in the opening and closing times of the towns allows a few of them to gain some attention by voting at midnight.
All polling places must be open from at least 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. ET at a minimum, according to the Secretary of State’s office. Some polling locations have earlier hours or extend theirs, but all polls will be closed by 8:00 p.m. ET. You can find times for each polling location here.
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
The Nominees for the 2016 Democratic National Convention: Donald Trump’s Democrat-Republican Dominance in the Iowa Caucuses
The survey showed that there were potential general- election problems for Trump. Two-thirds of the New Hampshire electorate, including independents and Democrats, felt he shouldn’t have immunity.
Almost the entire Republican Party believes Trump will now be the nominee again and is rallying around him, excluding a minority of ex-candidates and his former U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley.
The dominance of Mr. Trump with conservatives was confirmed last week when he won the Iowa caucuses. Candidates have dropped out and endorsed Trump, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who did so on Sunday.
The delegates will be awarded based on the caucus. Trump will on that ballot, but Haley won’t. Trump will not be on the primary ballot.
South Carolina is on Feb. 24. In Iowa and New Hampshire, about $9 million in ads have been run, but Trump has a significant margin in the polls.
It’s possible that the nomination will be wrapped up by the end of March. It will be for anyone who isn’t named Trump, and it will be crying, all over.
Mr. Sununu seems content to end his intraparty crusade against Mr. Trump after he leaves office early next year: “My full plan is to go back into the private sector.” But he does not appear prepared for a total vanishing act.
What do I really like about the media? Adding color to the media, as Mike Murphy used to say in an interview with the New York Times
In his interview with the New York Times, he said, “I like this media stuff,” and in the span of 90 minutes he appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” as well as on a podcasts, and an interview withBloomberg. I’ve gotten to see how the media works and I’ve been quiet about my criticisms of the media. I am impressed by some things. And some things I’m not. I thought I might add a little color to what the media is doing and enhance the game.
“He took her from Triple-A to major-league three or four weeks ago when he endorsed,” said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who has run many primary campaigns through New Hampshire, including former Senator John McCain’s bid in 2000. “He’ll leave office a very successful, multiterm governor. You will have a lot of New Hampshire offers. They wanted him for the Senate last time. They can always want him another time.”
A former state attorney general and a long time Republican strategist says fantasy football is akin to fantasy football. “I think part of him really wanted to try the bigger game, but I think he was realistic enough to say that’s not going to work. This is probably the best thing to do at this time.
A Special Day of Elections: Nikki Haley’s First Electoral Scenario in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire
Dixville Notch caters to snowmobilers and Nordic skiers in the winter, and golfers and hikers in the summer. It had four Republicans and two people who weren’t Republicans.
Otten disagreed with those that said the New Hampshire primary had fallen flat this year, with President Joe Biden not on the ballot and Republican contender Ron DeSantis withdrawing at the last minute.
“It’s special.” It is, Otten said. Everybody votes and that’s what should happen in every community in the United States. We’ve participated, so we won’t complain about the election outcome.
The voting took place in a new location, the living room of Tillotson House, with the Balsams Resort undergoing renovations. It made for a congenial setting, with an 11-month-old golden retriever named Maxine greeting media and voters.
DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. — The six registered voters of tiny Dixville Notch in New Hampshire all cast their ballots for Nikki Haley at midnight on Tuesday, giving her a clean sweep over former President Donald Trump and all the other candidates.
The first place in the nation to vote in the primary was the resort town. The voters were outnumbered by reporters from every corner of the world, and they also had a pile of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.
The results are usually not indicative of how an election will go. They give for an early curiosity.
A Conversation with Jason Miller during the 2016 Democratic Primary: Trump and the Challenge of Running for a Biden America or a MAGA America
Jason Miller, a senior advisor on the campaign says Trump has not only unified the base behind him, but he’s also brought in new coalition of voters and expanded the party.
The more establishment, anti-Trump, forces within the party have long been clamoring for this choice, said Alex Conant, who helped lead Senator Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign in 2016.
The tightening race has thrown a spotlight on the identity crisis within the Republican party and the debate between populism and small-government conservatism.
On Tuesday, the message will be sent that Trump has been chosen. He’s the one,” Rose predicted. “Wherever we go, we have to make sure we prepare ourselves, whether we like it or not, for a Biden America, or a MAGA America.”
Luke Rose, a 26-year-old casino dealer, was bowling with co-workers at Yankee Lanes, a downtown Manchester bowling alley. Between turns, he explained the way he thought the conflict was between Trump’s “MAGA romanticism” and traditional conservative values of Haley.
The choice of Trump and Haley will send a signal about their feelings towards the party in the future.
Phil Palker says he’s one of those Americans. The 59-year-transportation worker, and former Coast Guard navigator, says Trump changed the party and he evolved with the former president.
He said that he was pretty stagnant in his Republican beliefs. “But ever since Donald Trump started running in 2015, I think his message is revealing to who the party is.”
Super Tuesday is coming: The Haley Campaign for Florida’s Peaceful” Democratic Electoral Representative and South Carolina’s First Deputy U.S. Senator
Earlier on Tuesday, Haley’s campaign in a memo laid out a hypothetical path into March, saying that she could compete in a wider variety of states, including the 16 states that vote on March 5, also known as Super Tuesday.
But Haley told her supporters Tuesday evening that she isn’t going anywhere, and looked forward to competing in her home state’s primary at the end of February.
He was joined at his rally Tuesday by former rivals in the GOP contest, including entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott, a South Carolina U.S. senator whom Haley first appointed to the position. South Carolina’s governor, who succeeded Haley in that position, is also a supporter of Trump.
