The spotlight in the Iowa caucuses could be taken off by a cold snap
The 1996 Iowa Caucus: The GOP’s First Fenzy in Politics and Media During a Democratic Party Scenario
Donald Trump surprised many by showing strength among evangelicals and complaining that the vote count was rigged against him after he lost the Iowa caucuses to Cruz, but Cruz was still able to claim the crown. Both were to become regular features of his campaigns thereafter.
There was little remaining surprise at that point in the marginal showing by Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the frontrunner the previous summer who never found his footing in the debates or in his toe-to-toe showdowns with Trump.
There had been an earlier vote counting problem for Republicans in 2012, when they erroneously named Mitt Romney the winner on caucus night but later announced Rick Santorum got more votes. Romney went on to the nomination, Santorum went on to be a panelist on CNN.
The presidential nominating process went ahead without much attention to Iowa in that momentous political year. The pause did not last. In 1996, a small army of would-be Republican challengers went to Iowa early to contest the caucuses, including Phil Gramm, who tied for first with 1988 winner Dole. That was surprising to a number of people, as well as the third-place finish of Pat Buchanan.
On the night of the caucus, the forecast calls for temperatures to be below zero. But some in the state have been feeling another chill: the sense that their much ballyhooed “first in the nation” exercises might not matter all that much this year.
Iowa was the starting point for the national presidential race in the 70s. The four years of its caucuses caused a frenzy in the worlds of politics and media. An unusual word has appeared in some media coverage, often with a question mark, as part of an unusual cycle.
The caucuses are still argued for by most news stories and commentaries. The Democrats and Republicans are both starting their delegate selection this year. And after months of debates and ads and media jousts, this is the GOP candidates’ first test with measurable consequences.
The Democratic Party created a new system for selecting delegates to a national convention during the time when the focus was on Iowa.
South Dakota Sen. George McGovern was a big player in creating the new system but didn’t receive a lot of attention from Americans. He finished second there, behind “Undecided,” but he got some attention and went on to win other delegate-selecting events in other states. That led to his nomination at the ground-breaking, tradition-busting party convention that summer (and to a 49-state landslide loss in November).
Jimmy Carter served one term in the White House after winning the nomination and the election in Iowa, following in the footsteps of George McGovern.
Republicans were in the act and had consequences. In 1980, much of the country was still acquainting itself with a diplomat and former CIA director named George H.W. Bush. Then he beat former California Gov. Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses. Reagan was able to win the nomination and hire James A. Baker who was Bush’s campaign manager. Bush would serve eight years as vice president and four more as president; and his son would serve another eight in the Oval Office.
The Iowa Scenario: Predictions for a Low-Surprise Candidate: Hillary DeSantis’s Legacy Revisited
It seems unlikely that there’ll be much surprise in Iowa this time around. Half of the caucus vote is locked up according to all the polling. He has held onto the state’s politically active white evangelicals, which was a factor in the recent GOP cycles. These numbers have seen little change over the past year. So if Trump were to get less than half the Republican total on Monday night, the Iowa caucuses will have freshened their franchise as the Home of Surprises.
The coverage of Haley has been so focused on her that she might get a second-place status as a result of the cold weather. Three of the four polls that were reported this past week showed her leading among the GOP also-rans, and one had 20% of her vote.
It’s thought that DeSantis would drop out of the race if he were to feel disappointment in his performance for New Hampshire’s primary. He has visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties and been endorsed by the popular Republican governor, Kim Reynolds.
The sort of crash-and-burn saga that makes a strong storyline may be what happens Monday night. But at this point it would hardly qualify as a surprise. In the past year, the campaign announcement on Musk’s social media platform, and the series of flat, unappealing debate performances, have contributed to the decline in DeSantis’s stature.
While not a surprise, such an outcome would add DeSantis to the roster of aspirants whose sky-high expectations fell to earth in Iowa, including Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (2004), Ohio Sen. John Glenn (1984) and Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (1980).
Kennedy had challenged Carter for the Democratic nomination late in 1979, when Carter was wallowing in the low 30s in the Gallup Poll. He started to lead over Carter before Iranian revolutionaries took 50 Americans hostage in Tehran. The country rallied around its president, who soared well over 50% in the Gallup and won the Iowa caucuses again.
The Democratic side was shocked in 1984 by the Iowa shock. Walter Mondale from Minnesota dominated the caucuses with a 49%, but his presumed chief rival, John Glenn, disappeared with just 4%. Gary Hart, who was McGovern’s campaign manager in 1972, took second place.
But 1988 was something of an embarrassment for Iowa: Dole, Gephardt and Simon invested heavily in the state and saw dividends on caucus night. But all three stumbled in New Hampshire, struggled in the Super Tuesday events and were out of the running by the end of March.
But the Democratic National Committee pulled the plug after the debacle of 2020, when a glitchy voting system based on a mobile computer app and confusion over “delegate equivalents” kept the outcome of the Iowa caucuses in doubt for so long that people ceased to care.
And less emphasis on Iowa is certainly is no heartbreak for President Biden, who had finished fourth in the caucuses there in 2008 and again in 2020. Biden supports the start of the process in South Carolina this year. Biden began his ascent to the White House in 2020 after the South Carolina primary which was held on the last Saturday of February.
Interest waned in 1992, when the first President Bush ran unopposed. At the time, Iowa’s popular senator was a candidate for the Democrats, and other candidates didn’t run for him.
Surprises were featured again in 2004, when Gephardt returned and shared early billing with Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Dean, a newcomer to national politics, was making use of the internet to raise money and build support. But after months of battling each other, both had to bow on caucus night to Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who would eventually be the nominee.
Both parties seemed to achieve “peak Iowa” four years later with their breakthrough with lesser known candidates. The Democrats snubbed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the presumptive frontrunner, for newcomer Barack Obama (with Biden back in the pack). The clarity and strength of Obama’s win in a nearly all-white state catapulted him to historic status and helped him endure what would be a protracted primary battle with the former first lady.
Democrats will not cast votes for president at this year’s caucus. They’re sending mail-in ballots over the next couple of weeks, which will be counted by the party by March 5, after South Carolina’s primary. The reshuffling in the Democratic National Convention nominating calendar comes after calls for a state that is more demographically representative of the country go first. Plus, the race won’t be as competitive since there aren’t any major challenges to President Biden’s bid for reelection.
Forty delegates will be selected at the national convention after the caucuses. The allocation of the delegates for Iowa will be based on the number of total delegates.
They begin at 7 p.m. CT (8 p.m. ET) and will last roughly an hour. Caucusgoers write down their candidate of choice. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands. Votes are then tallied in front of caucus attendees and campaign representatives to be submitted to the state party.
The 2016 Republican Turnout Record in the Hawkeye State – Voting in the First Republikan Conference in the State of the Art
Only registered Republicans are allowed to vote. The 2016 GOP turnout record of 186,000 was set. About 25% of Republicans are in the state.
Republicans in the Hawkeye State convene Monday on a potentially record-breaking chilly night — that will likely affect turnout — to commence the presidential contest for 2024.
