China is watching when Taiwan’s President gets ready to meet Kevin McCarthy

The response of Tsai and the U.S. government to Taiwan’s eruptive nuclear bombardment: Does Beijing care about its neighbours?

Already, a bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul is planning to meet with Tsai on Saturday in Taipei, the day after she returns from her Los Angeles meeting.

At that time, Beijing encircled the island democracy with unprecedented military drills – firing multiple missiles into its surrounding waters and sending dozens of warplanes speeding across a sensitive median line dividing the Taiwan Strait.

It also cut off contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to combating climate change, in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.

It also slammed Washington for allowing Tsai to stopover in the US while en route to and from official visits in Central America, warning it could lead to “serious” confrontation between the two powers.

A defiant Tsai staked out her own ground, pledging as she took off on her 10-day trip not to let “external pressure” stop Taiwan from connecting with the world and like-minded democracies.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Beijing won’t be closely watching Tsai’s movements as it calibrates its response – and decides how much military might to flex over her meeting with an American lawmaker on American soil.

“(A less overtly aggressive response) would imply that Beijing does not wish to escalate tension with the US to a level that can risk getting out of hand,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.

The lack of transparency and the potential for competing interests within the bureaucracy make it hard to accurately predict China’s response.

The two powers have been at odds over issues such as tech security and a suspected Chinese balloon that went down over the US.

Tsai: Making the Most Out of the Influence of the US on the Taiwanese Independence and the emergence of a Cold War

For Tsai, who is entering the final year of her two-term presidency, “it’s clearly a capstone event,” according to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. He said she has taken US- Taiwan relations to new heights and that she has given Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility.

Increased visibility and increased cooperation with the US has followed increasing pressure on the island by China.

The self-governing island is the product of democracy and has been claimed by the Communist Party as their own.

The party has intensified economic, diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan over the last decade, under the leadership of their current leader, XI jing.

That’s driven concerns, among some in Washington, that Beijing is preparing for an invasion, though China’s official language still suggests that scenario is not its preferred option for achieving the claimed goal of “reunification.”

While the US switched its diplomatic relations to Beijing decades ago, it maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan and is bound by law to provide the democratic island with the means to defend itself.

China is also acutely aware that its actions toward Taiwan are under a significantly brighter global spotlight following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a close diplomatic partner of Xi. Putin’s rhetoric over Ukraine has echoes of how Xi speaks of Taiwan.

Pelosi’s trip – the first from a lawmaker of that rank to the island in 25 years – generated a fever pitch of nationalist and anti-US rhetoric in mainland China.

As Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January, a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as more friendly toward Beijing.

It could also jar with another high profile trip happening this month: a tour of mainland China from former Taiwan president and senior KMT member Ma is the first visit from a current or former Taiwan leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Ma’s tour is a “once in a half a century opportunity to send a conciliatory message between the two sides, Beijing shouldn’t want to tank that,” said Sung, the political scientist.

This week, as Tsai is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will head to China – an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with military posturing.

But it’s still drawn threats of retaliation from China and threatens to cause further deterioration in the deeply strained ties between Washington and Beijing.

Tsai, McCarthy, and the Californian Consultative Committee on Taiwan, the Central American Embassy, and a Possible US-Senate Stop in Los Angeles

The pair are set to meet, along with other American officials from both political parties, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on the northern outskirts of Los Angeles, rather than in Taipei, as originally proposed by McCarthy.

Tsai went to Central America to visit two countries that still recognize Taiwan, even though Beijing does not have a legitimate government.

Tsai’s delegation is making a planned stopover in California following official visits to Taiwan’s diplomatic allies Guatemala and Belize – part of a 10-day tour to shore up Taipei’s overseas relationships amid increasing pressure from Beijing.

Should Tsai go through with the meeting, China wants to conduct many larger drills that could once again disrupt international shipping lanes and encircle Taiwan.

Taiwan’s ministry of foreign affairs called Beijing’s threats “increasingly absurd” on Tuesday, saying that Taiwan does not accept interference or suppression from other countries for any reason.

His visit was criticized heavily by Taiwan’s ruling political party as a reflection of the contrasting approaches to relations with China within the political establishment.

“We will closely follow the development of the situation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the consulate said in a Monday statement – one of multiple condemnations from Chinese officials in recent weeks as reports of the meeting emerged.

“Taiwan will not back down, and friends in the US who support Taiwan and Taiwan-US relations will not back down either. Democratic partners will only become more united and have more frequent exchanges,” the statement said.

According to a source, the meeting is important for McCarthy, who has made creating a select committee on China one of his top priorities, and views the US relationship with China as a central issue of our time.

Wednesday’s meeting is also expected to include Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, who is a member of Democratic leadership, and the leaders of the new select committee on China, among others, according to a copy of the invite list obtained by CNN.

In addition to Wednesday’s meeting with McCarthy, Tsai also met with three US senators last week in New York. Sources say that Republican and Democratic senators met with the Taiwanese government’s top official. The Wall Street Journal first reported these meetings.

His meeting is less provocative than the one Nancy Pelosi was on in August, which the Biden administration quietly tried to discourage her from taking given the potential for tensions in the region.

Pelosi and McCarthy want to show American support for self-governing island while not being seen backing down in the face of Chinese threats.

In his public remarks Biden has gone further. He has said four times as president he would use US military power to defend Taiwan if China were to invade.