The direction of Democratic voters could be revealed by the result of the Chicago mayoral election

Chicago City Councilman Brandon Johnson and the Chicago School Board Commissioner Paul Vallas in the 2021 GOP-Democracy Race

The election in Chicago is the latest race in a large, liberal American city in which crime has been a primary issue. In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat and former police captain, defeated progressive candidates in his party’s 2021 mayoral primary by calling for a crackdown on crime. And in Los Angeles last year, Karen Bass, a liberal congresswoman, was elected mayor in a race in which her more conservative opponent, Rick Caruso, a billionaire real estate developer, ran on a law-and-order message.

Vallas won the February election with a huge lead over Johnson, who finished in second place, and had won more votes than the other two candidates.

A woman on the West Side said this week that she was leaning toward Mr. Vallas because she thought he was more likely to fix things quickly.

Mr. Johnson, 47, qualified for the runoff by defeating several better-known candidates competing for the same liberal voters. Mr. Johnson worked for the Chicago Teachers Union for most of the last dozen years as a result of which he contributed a lot to his campaign. He has described a public safety vision that goes beyond law enforcement and has tried to distance himself from past support for defunding the police.

Chicago voters will weigh in Tuesday on the direction of the Democratic Party, choosing between progressive Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson and moderate former city schools chief Paul Vallas in the mayoral runoff.

The outcome of the contest could offer a window into how voters view crime and police in Chicago since they elected a reformer, such as the outgoing Mayor who failed to advance, four years ago.

It’s not clear whether results will be known Tuesday night. Chicago counts mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, and the number of ballots left to arrive and be counted could be larger than the winning margin on election night, if the race is as close as many strategists and political observers in the city expect.

The Chicago Campaign for Mayorship: The Race for a Democratic Candidate in the 2020 City Council Rematchs Vallas and Johnson

Vallas and Johnson are competing to replace Lightfoot, whose bid for a second term ended after she finished third in the nine-candidate February 28 first round.

The most powerful force in this year’s mayor’s race was the Fraternal Order of Police, which endorsed Vallas, and the Chicago Teachers Union, which backed Johnson.

The clash between those two unions is part of a larger battle over how the city handled the Covid-19 pandemic – a period during which violent crime increased and schools were shut down.

He also highlighted Johnson’s history of supporting calls to “defund the police” – a message that became popular with progressives in 2020 in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd but that has since receded amid violent crime increases in Chicago and other cities. President Joe Biden is a democrat and he has long rejected the slogan.

Johnson says he doesn’t want to cut police spending. He has said he would promote 200 new detectives, arguing that solving more crimes would increase Chicago residents’ trust in police and deter crime.

His base of support was more conservative and more White than that of his competitors, raising risks for the rest of the race. In the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic ticket is supported by over 80% of Chicago’s electorate.

Roughly 45% of the electorate who did not vote for either candidate in February decided to vote for Vallas and Johnson. Outside of Johnson’s progressive base and Vallas’ support in White ethnic neighborhoods and the northwestern portion of the city, they were particularly focused on Black and Latino voters.

Vallas featured Black mainstays of Chicago politics, including former Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White and former US Rep. Bobby Rush, in his closing television advertisement touting his Democratic credentials.

Johnson believes that Vallas is too conservative for the city due to the campaign donors, which include business interests and Republicans, as well as the digital ads paid for by a group with ties to Betsy DeVos.

Johnson said at a rally in Chicago last week that when he takes money from Trump supporters, he should sit down.