Pentagon documents reveal secrets about friends and enemies
Seoul’s response to the Leaked U.S. Militia Crisis and its stance on the Cold War in the Middle East
“South Korea’s position has been that it will cooperate with the United States while not clashing with Russia,” said Yang Uk, a weapons expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “The documents leaked put South Korea in a more difficult position.”
South Korea was aware of the news reports about the leaked documents and planned to discuss “issues raised” by the leak with Washington, a senior government official in Seoul told reporters on Sunday. When asked whether the government would try to get an explanation from Washington, he said that they would look at precedents from the past.
The Russian strategy to deal with the new tanks was tucked away in a trove of U.S. intelligence documents that were leaked online in video game chat rooms before making their way to other social media sites in recent days. U.S. officials have said the documents are legitimate, though at least one of the dozens of pages of classified reports had been altered.
The senior South Korean official on Sunday declined to reveal details of what he called “internal discussions” within Mr. Yoon’s government. But he added that “nothing has been finalized” and that there was still “no change” in Seoul’s policy on Ukraine. South Korea has been shipping humanitarian aid to Ukraine but has insisted that it would not directly provide any lethal weapons.
Bounds on U.S. troops to protect Ukraine against tanks: A study of recent leaked intelligence from the Kremlin and Moscow
To brace for the introduction of advanced NATO-supplied tanks on Ukraine’s battlefields, Russian forces are preparing to pay a bonus to troops who manage to damage or destroy one, according to recently leaked U.S. intelligence documents.
The monetary incentive is part of a larger tranche of initiatives structured to help Russian formations and boost morale as they struggle to seize territory in Ukraine’s east, the documents say.
The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages that the Ukrainian military is facing. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies.
In previous conflicts in the Middle East, sound defensive and offensive strategies, such as the use of small portable anti-tank guided missiles and anti-tank mines, have mitigated the presence of tanks on the battlefield.
The Kremlin has a record of creativity in how it rewards achievements considered important to the state. Olympic gold medalists sometimes receive cars or apartments. There is a suspect in the poisoning of a Russian intelligence agent in London in the 2000s with a seat in Russia’s Parliament.
The U.S. view of Ukrainian war in the light of a leaked intelligence report on cyberattacks against a Canadian I.P. pipeline company
In fact, the documents released so far are a brief snapshot of how the United States viewed the war in Ukraine. In a few cases, the updates from the C.I.A. operations center come directly from the briefings of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They are a combination of the current order of battle and — perhaps most valuable to Russian military planners — American projections of where the air defenses being rushed into Ukraine could be located next month.
A senior Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the leaked assessment publicly, said on Sunday that Israel had taken “a very clear stand in support of Ukraine since Day 1 and had decided to focus on humanitarian aid,” mostly because of Israel’s strategic interests regarding Russia’s influence and the Iranian presence in Syria.
Despite requests from the Ukrainians, Israel has not given it more robust weaponry for air defense like the Iron Dome, or offensive weapons.
For years, Israel and Russia have maintained a de-confliction mechanism to avoid fatal errors in Syria. Israeli officials inform their Russian counterparts of any impending strikes in order to limit the flow of arms that Iran sends to its proxies in Syria and Lebanon, as Israel tries to prevent a military build up on its northern border.
The document lists Israeli weapons that could be transferred to Ukraine, including the Barak-8 and Spyder surface-to-air missiles and Spike anti-tank guided missile.
On Feb. 25, Russian-based cyberactors compromised the Canadian I.P. address of an unnamed gas pipeline company and claimed that sufficient damage had been done to undermine the company’s profits, according to the assessment, citing signals intelligence. The report said that the cyberactors were aiming to cause economic damage, not loss of life. The group had been on stand-by for other instructions, as of Feb. 27.
If the attack by the cybercriminal group, Zarya, succeeded, the intelligence report said, “it would mark the first time” the United States intelligence community “has observed a pro-Russia-hacking group execute a disruptive attack against Western industrial control systems.”
The New York Times could not independently verify a U.S. intelligence assessment, while the Communications Security Establishment could not comment on the specific episodes of cyberattacks.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/explain/2023/russia-ukraine-war-documents-leak/hacking-canada-pipeline
Hacking Canada’s Pipeline Systems: Russia’s War-Documents Leak, and the U.S. Cyber Threat Assessment
“The F.S.B. officers anticipated a successful operation would cause an explosion at the gas distribution station, and were monitoring Canadian news reports for indications of an explosion,” the report said.
While Canada’s information technology security agency declined to comment on the leaked intelligence, it said in an email that a recent National Cyber Threat Assessment had expressed concern about the potential disruption of critical infrastructure, in particular internet-connected operational technology “that underpins industrial processes.”
Canada, a strong ally of the United States and a NATO member, has imposed sanctions on more than 2,400 Russians in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The country, which is the largest source of oil imported to the United States, has a wide array of pipeline systems of various sizes and lengths to serve both the Canadian and American markets. The pipelines largely originate in the province of Alberta, but there are also regional systems in other provinces.
Businesses, governments and hospitals have been targets of modern-day piracy in the form of cyber extortion. In some cases, victims receive emails with links or attachments that contain software that encrypts files on their computers and holds them hostage until ransoms are paid.
Criminal groups with loose ties to foreign intelligence agencies have been known to carry out attacks on their own.
Attacks on critical infrastructure have been a concern for a decade, but have become much more common in recent years. Among them were the SolarWinds intrusion by one of Russia’s intelligence agencies and another against some types of Microsoft-designed systems that was attributed to Chinese hackers.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/explain/2023/russia-ukraine-war-documents-leak/hacking-canada-pipeline
The “last breathing tube” of Bakhmut: a leaked document of the war between Ukraine and Russia during the 2010 Ukrainian Minarity Reaction
When soldiers are surrounded, they can’t be evacuated and are at risk of being overrun and killed. According to a document, the commander of ground forces in the east called the single supply road the “last breathing tube” and asked that a unit from the military intelligence agency be sent to Bakhmut.
The assessment captures only one moment, from late February, in the now 10-month-long fight for Bakhmut, a midsize university and mining town of questionable strategic significance but one that both sides have freighted with political meaning.
Ukrainian soldiers have fought assaults by ex-convicts and special forces from Russia, and have been bombarded throughout the night.
However, the leaked assessment focused on a related theater of the battle for Bakhmut, including two flanking maneuvers by the Russian Army through fields and villages to the city’s northwest and southwest that were intended to encircle Ukrainian troops by cutting off supply roads.
It described internal Ukrainian military deliberations on how to respond and how commanding Generals decided to use elite units from the military intelligence agency to push back the Russians.
The military of the Ukrainians has kept key secrets during the war, including the success of a surprise attack last summer on Russian lines. The document leak has been called a Russian propaganda ploy by Ukrainian officials.
The document shows that an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky offered a clear-eyed assessment during a briefing.
Mr. Mashovets advised that a single supply road, winding over hills to the west of Bakhmut, remained accessible for the forces inside the city — and that it was under artillery fire.
The leak gave a glimpse of the internal deliberations within the Ukrainian leadership and showed that Bakhmut was on the verge of falling.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/explain/2023/russia-ukraine-war-documents-leak/hacking-canada-pipeline
The emergence of a NATO mercenary group in Ukraine during the first two months of the Russian-Ouanian war and a critic of Vladimir Prigozhin
This fighting, which came after the intelligence assessment was written, was successful in pushing Russian forces far enough from the roads to allow resupply of soldiers in the city and evacuation of the wounded.
But it came at a strategic cost for Ukraine, which has been seeking to retain its best trained and equipped soldiers for a counteroffensive anticipated in the coming weeks or months.
The mercenary group, known for its skill on the battlefield, its army of former prisoners, and its murder of a perceived traitor with a sledgehammer, remains a potent force, with influence all over the world, according to the documents. The documents say thatWagner is trying to destroy American interests in Africa and has offered to assist the government in Haiti to fight violent gangs.
According to one confidential document, emissaries from Wagner secretly met with “Turkish contacts” in February, slipping onto NATO territory in search of weapons and equipment for its fight in Ukraine.
It was not clear if Turkish authorities were aware that weapons were changing hands. Officials from the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not immediately comment on the revelation.
It’s a sign that the western sanctions against Russia have begun to bite that the weapons scheme shows how much further you have to go for supplies.
“This is a very interesting sign that there’s a degrading of their capabilities,” said Candace Rondeaux, an expert on Wagner who is a senior director at New America, a Washington think tank. The impact of US and European sanctions is beginning to have an adverse impact on the oil industry.
In September, a close aide to the president of Russia acknowledged that he created the group.
Mr. Prigozhin has become a fixture of the war, wearing helmet and body armor to visit his troops at the front line, and calling for the firing of military leaders who refuse to follow his example. In one of the more disturbing episodes of the war, he endorsed the execution by sledgehammer of a Wagner fighter who had defected to the Ukrainian side but was sent back in a prisoner exchange.
He has created an army out of Russians who have been freed and hired guns that could potentially be larger than the Ukrainian contingent along that line, according to a leaked Pentagon document.
After Mr. Prigozhin publicly accused the Russian military in late February of failing to provide his troops with sufficient ammunition, unnamed Defense Ministry officials seemed to go into damage-control mode, acknowledging Mr. Prigozhin’s claims might be true and proposing to double the amount of munitions supplied to Wagner forces, according to a C.I.A. document.
The documents indicate the American spies were able to see the inner workings of the operation by gathering signals intelligence from Prigozhin associates. One document describes how American intelligence operatives apparently listened in on a Prigozhin associate in February planning to recruit prisoners again into Wagner’s ranks.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/explain/2023/russia-ukraine-war-documents-leak/hacking-canada-pipeline
The Israeli intelligence agency condemned the Israeli protests during March 22nd protests against the Reform of Israel’s Judiciary Law and Regulation
It added: “The Mossad and its serving senior personnel have not engaged in the issue of the demonstrations at all and are dedicated to the value of service to the state that has guided the Mossad since its founding.”
Israel, which returned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power in December as the head of the most far-right government coalition in its history, was paralyzed by protests and strikes in March after the government revealed plans to overhaul the country’s judiciary. The United States criticized the proposals to curb judicial review of legislation and give the government more control in the selection of judges.
According to the documents, the information was obtained through signals intelligence. Many of the leaked documents are labeled with orders that they are to be shared only among American intelligence agencies.
The rules and tradition of nonpartisanship of the Israeli intelligence agency precluded direct involvement by the agency’s leadership in a political crisis, according to current and former intelligence officials.
Some Mossad employees, however, requested and received permission to participate in the demonstrations as private citizens. The Mossad chief, David Barnea, in consultation with Israel’s attorney general, allowed junior employees to participate so long as they did not identify themselves as members of the organization, according to a defense official familiar with the agency’s policy.
Several hundred former Mossad employees, including five former chiefs, signed a statement opposing the reform promoted by the government.
According to Israeli political commentators, the leaked assessment appeared to confuse the idea of allowing andcouraging for former Mossad employees with the idea of mixing up their actions with those of current employees.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/explain/2023/russia-ukraine-war-documents-leak/hacking-canada-pipeline
How the Mossad is using Telegram to inform the U.S. Embassy of Ukraine’s War Crimes Against the Donbas
Ultimately, the protesters stalled the proposal’s progress and the government said it would delay the legislation for several weeks and allow time for negotiations with the opposition parties.
The Mossad itself has never taken a position on any political or social controversy in Israel. Also, in contrast to the Shin Bet, which deals with domestic security, the Mossad works exclusively outside the country.
Detailed targeting data is provided by it. It is coordinating the long, complex logistical train that delivers weapons to the Ukrainians. And as a Feb. 22 document makes clear, American officials are planning ahead for a year in which the battle for the Donbas is “likely heading toward a stalemate” that will frustrate Vladimir V. Putin’s goal of capturing the region — and Ukraine’s goal of expelling the invaders.
The disclosures were described by a senior intelligence official as a nightmare. The chairman of the policy think tank, who is also well-known for his work in cyberspace, said that he was worried about the potential damage. The possibility that the Russian intelligence is able to use the pages, spread out over Telegram, and to figure out how they are gathering their plans was included.
