There were 5 things that came out from Democrats flipping a New York House seat

Special Elections: The Contribution of Jay Suozzi, a Former Nassau County Executive, and a Proponent of Proliferation

That doesn’t sound like a lot compared to what was spent in New York, but a little can go a long way in a statehouse race. The DLCC is pledging to spend $60 million in 2024 on statehouse races across the country, the most it ever has.

Suozzi is a known quantity on Long Island. He’s a former Nassau County executive and is a former congressman. Democrats made the race seem like a moderate adult in the room against an extreme candidate.

In addition to immigration, abortion rights — once again — played a role in Democrats’ messaging. Abortion rights and Pilip’s ethical record were the main on-air messages that voters saw. Democrats called Pilip a “pro life” and accused her of running on a platform to ban abortion. No exceptions for rape or incest.”

You don’t want to read too much into special elections, but it’s been special after special after special that Democrats have won since the Dobbs ruling overturned the guaranteed right to an abortion nearly two years ago.

The House Republicans Are Trying to Fix The Border Security Problem: The Case of Bucks County Sen. Jim Prokopiak and the Implications for the Future

“What I heard from voters is that Bucks County residents need help supporting their families, want control over their own bodies, and ensure they have the ability to chart their own paths in life,” he said.

Jim Prokopiak won the legislative seat in Bucks County for Democrats and helped them hold onto the Senate. He pointed out the role abortion rights played in his statement after his win.

So it’s understandable that Republicans would want to try to use it. Democrats did not shy away from the middle on this issue, even though they were at odds with each other. The bipartisan congressional deal was scuttled by the hard right, but Suozzi supported the deal and called for a bipartisan compromise. Pilip came out against the bill.

It’s been a hot-button issue in New York with red-state governors busing migrants who crossed the border illegally to cities run by Democrats, including New York. New York Mayor Eric Adams has criticized the Biden administration on border security, calling on it to do more. According to the latest NPR poll, Biden gets just 29% approval for his handling of the issue, while Republicans have a 12 point advantage over the party that would do better with it.

This race was dominated by GOP attacks on immigration. The Republicans spent more than $8 million on campaign ads in this election. They bashed Democrat Tom Suozzi on the radio. Republican Mazi Pilip even held rallies near a makeshift tent city in Queens that houses migrants.

Education, crime, and now immigration. None of those issues has really turned the tide for Republicans in the suburbs. With former President Donald Trump as the likely standard bearer again for the party, their job is made even harder. The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that almost two-thirds of suburban voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump and, in a head-to-head matchup, Biden leads Trump by 16 points with suburban voters.

What gets thinner than a whisker? The Republicans currently have the majority in the House with three seats. Are governing hard for the House Republicans? It got harder.

Tuesday’s results show some important consequences and lessons from low-turnout special elections, but they don’t always indicate what will happen in future elections.

Republicans were hoping that the concern over immigration would put them over the top as they look to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos in a special election Tuesday.

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