There are 5 things that came out of the Iowa Republican caucuses
What Have We Learned About Donald Trump in Iowa from CNN, NBC News, and PBS News Indictments? The Iowa GOP Caucus
This race has been dominated by a race for second place. Trump finished with more than 50% of the vote, had the most enthusiastic voters in polling, and they showed up – despite predictions that they might not because of record cold weather and high expectations that he would win.
Trump won by such a large margin that The Associated Press was able to call the race at 8:31 p.m. ET, just half an hour after voting began. (They were able to do so because of its massive voter survey it conducts and then it compares that to key precincts in the state, which showed Trump with an insurmountable lead.)
The GOP base is pretty much all in on Trump’s election lies and conspiracies. CNN, NBC News, CBS News and others have entrance polls for Iowa GOP caucus-goers.
There have been clear signs. Trump’s campaign noticed it, they raised tons of money from these indictments, and Trump’s lead has only expanded in the GOP nominating process this year. His lead in Iowa, according to an average of the polls, went up a net of 9 points since May.
With a general-election audience, it’s a different story. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll from October found that majorities of independents and Democrats believe he has done something illegal, and views of Trump haven’t budged much – Republicans love him, but majorities of everyone else have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Source: 5 takeaways from the Iowa Republican caucuses
Resolving the Iowa GOP Denial Debate: The Case for the Future of the Republican Party in New Hampshire, and the Case for Trump to Win by One Vote
Haley finished within a couple thousand votes for DeSantis. She denied that Trump swept all of the 99 counties in Iowa. She won one county, Johnson County in the Eastern part of the state.
Trump is the head of the party, and if DeSantis wants a future in it, he is probably going to have to curry favor with Trump. Staying in and denying Haley a one-on-one race with Trump may be a way to do that at least for a while.
Haley said during her speech Monday she would be back in New Hampshire tonight. She asked Americans if they wanted a new generation of conservative leaders or if they wanted more of the same.
She said that America deserved better because the majority doesn’t like Biden or Trump, they’re both approaching 80.
It’s not a bad argument. Now, she needs to show that in a more moderate state, where independents can vote, that she can give Trump a real run for his money.
Her win in Johnson County is indicative of the problem she faces. The county home to the University of Iowa has a high percentage of college degrees. And look at the groups Haley won in the state overall:
So, the electability argument Haley has been trying to make didn’t resonate in Iowa, and her team spent a lot of money trying to drive that message home.
It will be hard for her to convince supporters that she should continue if she is unable to prove it in New Hampshire.
Turnout was low in these caucuses compared to the record-setting 2016 turnout. Only about 110,000 Republicans caucused with 99% of results in, as of 1:30 a.m. You can follow the instructions on this page.
Other Trump supporters on far-right online platforms also claimed electoral conspiracies, even though Trump won 51 percent of the vote in Iowa, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis a distant second at 21 percent and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley in third place at 19 percent, according to results shared by the Iowa Republican Party and AP’s election tracker.
On Trump’s own platform Truth Social, Seth Keshel, a retired US army captain who has become a leading voice in the election denial movement in recent years, wrote: “Haley by one vote in Johnson County screws my prediction of 99/99 to Trump. Audit!”
The Donald, a message board where a lot of the online organizing of the January 6 riot took place, has users taking issue with Haleys claim that Iowa voters made the presidential election a two-person race.
Others said the one vote loss was the work of the so-called deep state. “To win by ONE vote is just too conspicuous,” a user wrote. “It looks like a ‘Fuck You’ from the Deep State.” Responses in the same thread urged Trump to call for a recount in order to “trigger” his opponents.
On the lies about a Republican presidential candidate who threatened to kill a congressman: the Iowa Democratic caucus of David A. Hall told CBS on Monday night
Joshua Hall, who was once convicted of threatening to kill a Democratic congressperson, said that the Iowa Democratic party wants thousands of people to switch their party registration from Democrats to Republicans in order to caucus for Haley.
According to CBS, the election officials ran out of forms printed to allow people to switch party affiliations on the night, even though there was no evidence that anyone was paid to vote.
As has been the case since the first false claims of a stolen election emerged in the wake of Trump’s loss in 2020, none of those claiming wrongdoing on Monday night provided any proof to back up their claims. With a long primary season now underway, those peddling lies about election integrity are just getting started.
Despite the overwhelming scale of former president Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night, some of Trump’s most ardent supporters have already claimed that the vote was rigged because he lost one single county.
