There could be a decision on the future of fossil fuels

Why did Sultan Al Jaber and Xi Jinping not attend the COP28 conference in Dubai? Loss and Damage, the Fund, and its Impact

Not to mention an investigation by the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting found that Sultan Al Jaber used his position as COP28 president to lobby for oil and gas deals with other governments. He has denied the allegations.

But (why is there always a but?!) neither presidents Joe Biden nor Xi Jinping are expected to attend the conference in Dubai — an absence seen as a big snub by other governments sending their heads of state. The US is producing a record amount of oil and gas this year. Coal imports are expected to hit record highs in China. Sigh.

Less-polluting countries are already hit hard by climate disasters and want to get some compensation. In climate negotiations, it’s billed as a fund for “loss and damage.” There was a breakthrough at last year’s conference after decades of failed negotiations. The delegates reached an agreement to create a fund, but they left it up to future negotiations to figure out how it would work. That is what is at stake.

We need money to make it worthwhile, but we have the fund. What we have is an empty bucket,” Mohamed Adow, director of think tank Power Shift Africa, said in a statement last year.

On the first day of the conference this year, nations launched the loss and damage fund. $400 million is present in that empty bucket. Germany and the United Arab countries each have $100 million pledges. The US, Japan, and the UK gave a certain amount of money.

“The absence of a defined replenishment cycle raises serious questions about the Fund’s long-term sustainability,” Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, said in a statement. The climate crisis is being driven by decades of fossil fuel consumption and a lack of adequate climate finance to the Global South, so it is up to affluent nations to meet their financial obligations.

While momentum is growing, there are some significant sticking points. 130 companies and EU use terms that could allow fossil fuels to linger. They only want to phase out fossil fuels that are caught in a net, which will change everything. Stipulating the phaseout of “unabated fossil fuels” in a deal means that polluters can continue using coal, oil, and gas as long as they install controversial new technologies for capturing CO2 emissions that have yet to prove effective at scale.

The Paris Agreement, at least, had the foresight to require a “global stocktake” every five years to assess countries’ progress toward meeting the goals of the accord. The time has finally arrived for countries to face how much — or how little — headway they’ve made.

Not every climate conference gets as contentious as this year’s is shaping up to be. The biggest issues of the negotiations can be found in the guide on The Verge.

Any final agreement must be ratified by every country in attendance. The need for unanimous consent means that each word in the final document will be scrutinized. In previous years, representatives from oil producing nations have vetoed language calling for a rapid phaseout of fossil fuels.

The hottest year in recorded history will end at the end of the meeting. Greenhouse gas emissions, mainly driven by the burning of fossil fuels, have now warmed the planet by about 1.2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Climate change is causing havoc and destruction around the world.

More heads of state and government will speak on Saturday, and the event will last 10 days, as negotiators try to find a common cause against climate change.

The second day of the meeting will feature speeches by King Charles III, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The Palestinian Authority’s president, Mahmoud Abbas, will speak about the war in Gaza seven weeks into it.

But even as world leaders and diplomats gather, there is a sense of disillusionment in the air. This year’s event is taking place in the United Arab Emirates, a state made wealthy from oil that has been accused of trying to strike oil deals on the sidelines of the summit. The president of the proceedings, Sultan Al Jaber, is the head of the Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc. Thousands of oil and gas executives are at the event.

Warming of the Universe, Sensitivities to its Implications and Consequences for Global Warming at 1.5 – 15 degrees Celsius

At the same time, he called on delegates to pursue efforts to keep global warming at no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a target many scientists believe is all but out of reach.