The U.S. is seeking the toughest-ever rules for vehicle emissions
The Biden Administration is going to make history by making clean transportation rules, according to a Washington DC/LITTLE COSMO research report
Even without the EPA’s rules, electric vehicles could account for more than 50% of new US vehicle sales by 2030, according to a January study by the International Council on Clean Transportation, a non-profit research group in Washington DC, and the consultancy Energy Innovation Policy and Technology in San Francisco, California. A senior director at Energy innovation said that the EPA rules would help to eliminate uncertainties around how federal incentives will play out under inflation reduction act.
The proposed standards include air pollution and greenhouse gases that are harmful to human health, as well as the pollution from vehicle tailpipes.
He said during a call that they’re going to achieve this future together. “It is well within our grasp. Make no mistake about it.”
The regulations are the single most important regulatory initiative by the Biden Administration to reduce the worst impacts of climate change, according to the chair of the International Council on Clean Transportation.
“The administration is going to make history — if indeed, at the end of the day, they finalize these ambitious standards,” she said in a press conference arranged by the Environmental Defense Fund, an advocacy group.
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In addition to new rules for cars, trucks and SUVs, the EPA is also proposing standards for medium-duty vehicles, like delivery trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles, like tractor-trailers. If finalized, the EPA predicts these would lead to 50% of buses and 25% of long-haul tractor trailers being electric by 2032.
The federal government has set fuel economy standards but new proposals are expected in the near future. The zero emission vehicle mandates adopted in California and other states are not the same as these.
Instead, it sets a standard for emissions, on average, based on the size and type of vehicle being built. The agency believes companies will have to produce over three-fourths of zero-emission vehicles to meet the new rules.
It’s not currently clear if the world can mine enough minerals or build enough batteries quickly enough to satisfy automakers’ existing production plans, let alone accelerated ones.
However, companies have different timelines for when they planned to go electric, and many were not publicly planning on being anywhere close to two-thirds electric in the U.S. by 2032.
Electricity and gasoline prices affect the amount of savings that EVs can provide. But they cost more up front.
In addition to this regulatory stick, the Biden administration also offered many carrots to entice the auto industry to go electric.
Charging infrastructure needs to be built out, as well as the power generation to supply those chargers. Drivers — huge swathes of them, not just a small percentage of enthusiasts or the particularly eco-conscious — would need to embrace a shift away from gas stations and towards chargers.
The proposed regulations will be open for comment, and car makers will likely be very vocal about expressing what they consider they can actually achieve over the next decade.
They wrote in legal files that they would suffermaterial adverse consequences from a shift to electric vehicles, and also hurt the coffers of oil- producing states like Texas.
Notably, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the trade group for major automakers, has defended the EPA’s right to set those standards, saying nobody questions the future is electric.
But much of that has changed recently. Tesla, Ford Motor and other carmakers have recently cut prices for battery-powered models like the Model 3 and the Mustang Mach-E, and some now cost less than similar gasoline models, or nearly so. General Motors and other companies will introduce even cheaper models this year, like an electric Chevrolet Equinox sport-utility vehicle that is expected to start at around $30,000. And many electric models can be driven comfortably for 200 miles or more before recharging.
The incentives for electric cars built in the US will not be the same on Tuesday. The United States has a trade agreement with countries like Canada and Mexico that affect the percentage of components and minerals in vehicle batteries.
If the EPA’s proposal to impose the toughest ever auto emissions standards is adopted, Americans could save an estimated $1 trillion on gas, according to the agency.
The projection was included in the 758-page report issued by the EPA detailing its proposed regulations, which include tailpipe emissions so stringent that it could lead to 67% of new vehicle sales being electric by 2032.
The EPA predicts that U.S. consumption and net imports of petroleum would both go down as a result. That would increase U.S. energy security, although as the EPA acknowledges, the U.S. is now also a major oil producer — in fact, the world’s largest oil producer.
And a similar pattern holds in the EPA’s analysis. The EPA estimates every car will cost $1,200 more to make in 2032 if the proposed standards are put in place.
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“This reinvents the vehicle,” says Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. “It has reinvented the way consumers interact with their vehicle.” It transforms the entire industrial base.
The industry has a few years to get ready for the transition, according to the regulatory director at the Zero Emissions Transportation Association.
He says the investments that are being made today are going to bear fruit over time. “I think there’s going to be a very different world come 2027.”
In particular, an infrastructure bill enacted by Congress in 2021 and a massive spending bill known as the Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, are funnelling federal money into charging infrastructure and tax credits for consumers and for manufacturers of automobiles or batteries that upgrade or build new facilities.
Lithium and cobalt are needed to manufacture modern batteries, and the Biden administration is encouraging companies to purchase these and other materials through countries that have free trade agreements with the US. The administration is also encouraging domestic manufacturing in order to secure supply chains and dial back dependence on China. Only if key minerals aresourced from free-trade partners such as Australia and Canada can you get some tax credits. There are no obvious issues with the supplies of crucial minerals for electric-car batteries, according to the energy consultants.
According to an energy-storage analyst at a New York City-based company, the investments are there and these nations can theoretically provide sufficient supplies. But she warns that demand from Europe and other regions will rise, so it will be important for the United States to strengthen its international partnerships.
