Los Angeles, Las Vegas and other cities could face huge water cuts due to the proposed plan to save the Colorado River

The Colorado River and the Northern Sky: A Realistic View of Climate Change and the Implications for Phoenix, the Salt and Verde Rivers

Across the Southwest, the signs of a phenomenal winter are everywhere. There is snow on the top of the San Gabriel Mountains. And in downtown Phoenix, the Salt and Verde rivers are full.

As the general manager of the Central Arizona Project, Burman expects that the two lakes will balance. “That helps with what type of shortage we might have next year, that helps as far as where we think the reservoirs might be in two to three years, so it’s very good news.”

The analysis will compare several scenarios on the Colorado River to see which one is the more likely to happen. The Biden administration is expected to select a preferred scenario this summer.

“We can probably create the protection levels with cuts not as big as what she described,” Arizona’s top water official Tom Buschatzke told CNN. “I think that might help us get to the place we need to be.”

The wet winter has alleviated some of the pressure of the negotiations, said Buschatzke and other officials.

On Tuesday, the Interior Department and Bureau of Reclamation are expected to release the first installment of an environmental analysis examining what different volumes of Colorado River cuts will look like for the cities, farmers and tribes who all depend on the water.

The manager of the Colorado River Resources for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California said the wet winter won’t be reflected in the analysis.

While some are suggesting that one historic winter might delay the inevitable pain of water cuts due to climate change.

The analysis by the Biden administration paints a dire picture of what would happen to major cities, farmers and Native tribes from the collapse of the Colorado River.

In return for federal dollars, administration officials are incentivizing water cuts. Beaudreau and other administration officials announced last week that they’ve signed a deal to let go of water- intensive farmland and keep more water in Lake las vegas. More fallowing agreements, some of which are still being negotiated, may come in the near future.

At a news conference at Arizona’s state capital on Thursday, Deputy Interior Secretary Tommy Beaudreau told reporters more fallowing agreements would be coming soon.

In order to conserve water, additional announcements will be made in the coming months, with funding going to longer-term projects. There will be a steady drumbeat of that.

Federal and state officials are hoping that the short-term payments to let agricultural fields go dry could add 10 additional feet of elevation in Lake Mead – the Colorado River’s largest reservoir and the largest reservoir in the country overall.

But whether 10 feet is achievable remains to be seen; many of these agreements have yet to be signed and are flexible enough to give farmers and cities the chance to back out if dry conditions return and they need the water, one source familiar with the agreements told CNN.

The 25% cuts Touton called for last year spurred a tough series of state negotiations that yielded little consensus. Sticking points have included whether the senior priority rights that protect California and Arizona farmers and tribes from cuts should remain intact.

Stakeholders around the basin are expecting more tough negotiations to take place in 2026, when the current guidelines that govern how the river is managed are set to expire.

The Colorado River hasn’t seen two years of good water in a row since 2000, so celebrations could be short-lived.

“Even though this year is looking like a very good year for runoff; one, we haven’t seen it yet, and two, we don’t know what will happen next year,” Burman said.

One outside expert watching negotiations told CNN the talk about not having to make hard choices now is concerning, given how close the river has already come to crashing.

“Perhaps more worrisome is the fact it buys us time,” said Sarah Porter, the director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “We have already come very close to minimum power pool and we’re now able to say the words dead pool. We need a negotiated agreement or a federal action to get out of this zone.

The Bureau of Reclamation has two different scenarios for how to cut water usage should the Colorado River continue to decline, with an immediate goal of keeping enough water in the Glen Canyon and Hoover dams to power hundreds of homes.

In one, major Western cities – including Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix – would take the vast majority of the water cuts if Lake Mead levels were to plummet further, because these cities have a lower priority claim to the water, compared to farmers and Native tribes.

Does No-Action Arrelate Water Cuts to Save Lake Mead and Improve River Basin Preserving Water Quality for Urban and Tribal Communities?

Beaudreau told CNN that he hopes the figures will help spur an agreement among the basin states.

The other scenario examines what would happen if the water cuts are spread equally among cities, farmers and tribes alike – an option that some high-priority water users have warned could result in a prolonged, high-stakes court battle between states and the federal government.

Beaudreau called the no-action option the “most severe” for the river basin, but said it was important to include to emphasize why more cuts are so critical should water levels plummet further.

The federal government is trying to show a picture of a future without water, and hoping that the states can come together to make a deal.

The Interior Secretary will do what is necessary and responsible to keep the system operating, even though he believes that this is a step towards facilitating some consensus coming out of the basin.

Buschatzke said at Tuesday’s news conference that it could spur opposition or even litigation. Let’s speed up our discussions in the basin for a collaborative outcome.

California’s Lead Negotiating Consultant in the Colorado River talks said Arizona and the other states are looking to develop a true, seven-state consensus in the coming months.

The result of those programs could change the landscape so greatly that the feds will be able to decrease the amount of water cuts in their final decision.

It depends on the amount of shortages. “If there’s conservation in the system that keeps water in Lake Mead, and we have to make minimal shortage reductions on top of [existing drought guidelines], that is an accomplishment in and of itself.”

Beaudreau said that while he hopes the seven states can strike a short-term deal, he doesn’t yet know whether than can be achieved. Interior plans to implement cuts if not, so the system will not crash.