There is a window into depth of US intelligence to allies and foes
An Investigation of the Russian Communications Containing a Top Secret Observer and a Common Source of the Documents Observed by the Pentagon
The Russians might change their method of communication to better hide their planning after the majority of the information about them was gathered via intercept communications.
The documents are real and have been acknowledged by Pentagon officials. The Department of Justice said Friday evening it has also opened an investigation and is working with the Department of Defense.
A number of documents, including a top secret one, were found on Telegram on Wednesday. There have been additional classified documents found on additional sites as early as March 1. This raises a host of questions about how widespread the breach may be and how much damage it could cause.
There is no clear reason for the material to be put online since government intelligence agencies around the world seek to hide rather than reveal their secrets.
Some of those posting the documents on social media appear to be individuals hiding behind an alias, and they seem to be reposting versions they came across elsewhere. The original source for posting the documents online is not publicly identified.
Podolyak: On Russia’s Role in the U.S.–U.K. Oscillations
Mikhailo Podolyak, a senior advisor to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Twitter that he believed Russia was responsible. He said it was an attempt to “divert attention, cast doubts and mutual suspicions.”
Many include maps of Ukraine and charts on where troops are concentrated and what kinds of weapons are available to them. The online posts show photos of physical documents that were folded and creased in some instances.
Some are dated to late February or early March and appear to be part of a slide deck produced daily for top U.S. military and other national security officials.
For example, one chart puts the Ukrainian death toll at around 71,000, a figure considered plausible. However, the chart also lists the Russian fatalities at 16,000 to 17,500. The Russian count is thought to be more than the casualty figures show.
Russian intelligence had the ability to gain access to what the U.S. provided to the people of Ukranian. Intelligence sharing between the U.S., NATO andUkraine has been viewed as helpful in helping the Ukrainian military fight off the Russians.
The Russian military has made some progress in its offensive in eastern Ukraine but there have already been thousands of casualties on both sides.
The Ukrainians are widely expected to launch their own offensive soon, and most analysts expect it to focus on areas controlled by Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine.
US spying on key allies: Russia versus Ukraine in the light of the Russian-Ukraine intelligence-sharing stalemate
Some of the documents, which US officials say are authentic, expose the extent of US eavesdropping on key allies, including South Korea, Israel and Ukraine.
The US could now be put in danger due to the degree to which it has penetrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organization.
At a critical time in the war, as the Ukrainians gear up to launch a counteroffensive against the Russians, others disclosed weaknesses in their weapons, air defense and battalion sizes, just as the US and Ukrainians begin to develop a better relationship over intelligence-sharing.
The leak has also led the Pentagon to take steps to tighten the flow of such highly sensitive documents, officials said, which are normally available on any given day to hundreds of people across the government.
The Joint Staff, composed of the Defense Department’s most senior uniformed leadership that advises the President, is examining its distribution lists to look at who gets these reports. Many of the documents had markings indicating they had been produced by the Joint Staff’s intelligence arm, known as J2 and appear to be briefings.
Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Friday that the department is continuing to review the matter and had made a referral to the Justice Department, which separately confirmed to CNN that it has launched an investigation into the source of the leak.
While spying is an inevitable part of how the US intelligence community collects information globally, diplomats from some of the countries mentioned told CNN it was frustrating – and harmful to the US reputation – to see that information exposed publicly.
We cannot wait for the US to give us a damage assessment, that is why we expect the US to share one with us soon. An official from a country that is part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing arrangement with the US said that they are doing their own right now.
One of the documents from February is titled ” Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely” and the official said it was alarming. Heading for a sparring partner in the next few years. The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.”
“Gains for Ukraine will be hard to accomplish, but it does not help to have the private US assessment pointing to a likely yearlong stalemate revealed publicly,” the official said.
One document reveals that the US has been spying on Zelensky. That is unsurprising, said the source close to Zelensky, but Ukrainian officials are deeply frustrated about the leak.
The US intelligence report, which is sourced to signals intelligence, says that Zelensky in late February “suggested striking Russian deployment locations in Russia’s Rostov Oblast” using unmanned aerial vehicles, since Ukraine does not have long-range weapons capable of reaching that far.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
Leaked Pentagon Documents about the Crimes against Ukraine and the Organization of World War II: Argentina’s National Security Council and the U.S.
The National Security Agency definition of signals intelligence is derived from electronic signals and systems used by foreign targets.
The intelligence report says that China could use Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia as an opportunity to cast NATO as an aggression and possibly increase its aid to Russia.
Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on his Telegram channel Friday that he believes the documents that have been disseminated are inauthentic, have “nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans” and are based on “a large amount of fictitious information” disseminated by Russia.
Yet another document describes, in remarkable detail, a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials about concerns by the country’s National Security Council over a US request for ammunition.
The officials worried that supplying the ammunition, which the US would then send to Ukraine, would violate South Korea’s policy of not supplying lethal aid to countries at war. One of the officials suggested a way to get round the policy, by selling the ammunition to Poland.
Several diplomats said that officials from other countries plan to raise the issue with Washington, but they have not had those talks yet because they are waiting to find out what the administration says about the leaked documents.
The intelligence report about Israel has caused outrage in Jerusalem. The report, produced by the CIA and sourced to signals intelligence, says that Israel’s main intelligence agency, the Mossad, had been encouraging protests against the country’s new government – “including several explicit calls to action,” the report alleges.
The Mossad was called the report “mendacious and without any foundation” by the Prime Minister’s Office.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
Is Israel concerned about a special operation? Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine, a document sourced to Signals Intelligence
Another classified document, also sourced to signals intelligence, offers a window into how the US assesses its allies’ policies – and how the US can exert its influence to change them.
Jerusalem likely will consider giving lethal aid under greater US pressure or a perceived degradation of its relationship with Russia according to a document titled Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine.
The US has been trying to get European countries to let Ukraine use the fighter jets, which they are ready to donate.
Casualty figures on both sides are notoriously difficult to estimate and the US has been reticent to share in detail, so the documents give us a window into the figures.
Analysts say bad actors are already using leaked documents to spread misinformation. The document with casualty numbers was altered to decrease the number of Russians killed in the event of an attack.
He said that the level of involvement is rising gradually. We keep an eye on it. Well, of course, it makes the whole story more complicated, but it cannot influence the final outcome of the special operation.”
