China is watching as the President of Taiwan prepares to meet Kevin McCarthy

Taiwan’s response to the Pelosi-McClenna sit-down as a test of the self-governing democracy

Earlier this week, Taiwan’s official news agency reported that the island’s presidential office said that the two would meet in California.

In the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit, Beijing launched extensive military drills around the self-governing island and suspended several lines of communication with Washington, raising concerns that it might take aggressive and destabilizing steps in response to the sit-down between Pelosi and McCarthy.

It also cut off contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to combating climate change, in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.

Washington was slammed for allowing Tsai to stop in the US while on her way to and from official visits in Central America, warning it could spark a confrontation between the two powers.

During her 10-day trip not to let external pressure stop Taiwan from being connected with the world and like-minded democracies, Tsai staked out her own ground.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Beijing won’t be closely watching Tsai’s movements as it calibrates its response – and decides how much military might to flex over her meeting with an American lawmaker on American soil.

“Every time Taiwan does anything that China doesn’t like, the Chinese react with their own military coercion,” Sun said. But in the current situation, “they have to consider the consequences of overreaction,” she added.

It is not easy to predict China’s response because of the system’s structure and potential for competing interests.

If Beijing retaliates after Tsai met Pelosi, it will have a direct impact on the relationship between Washington and Beijing.

“Tsai’s trip is not simply a ‘graduation trip’ She finishes her term. ]. It is definitely an assist for raising the foreign diplomacy of Taiwan,” says Lin Ying Yu, an international relations professor at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.

That increased visibility – and enhanced cooperation with the US – has followed China’s mounting pressure on the island, which sits fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the mainland coast.

China’s Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy as its own despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.

The party has vastly increased its military capabilities in the last 10 years under leader Xujie, and increased economic pressure on Taiwan.

Beijing is accused by some in Washington of preparing for an invasion, though the official language of China still implies that it isn’t its preferred option for achieving the “reunification” goal.

Congress has been a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan in recent years. Lawmakers regularly visit the island and drive bipartisan legislation enhancing support and cooperation.

The US maintains an unofficial relationship with Taiwan and Tsai’s transit in the country is therefore not an official visit in order to keep Washington aligned with its longstanding “One China” policy.

In mainland China, the trip by Pelosi generated indignation because it was the first from a lawmaker of that rank in 25 years.

With a presidential election in Taiwan in January, a lot of voters might desert the main opposition party, the Kmt, which is friendlier toward Beijing.

A tour of mainland China by former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou is the first visit from a current or former Taiwan leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

The political scientist, who asked not to be named, said the opportunity for a conciliatory message was once in a half century and Beijing shouldn’t want to tank it.

The EU commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, will head to China this week, which is an important opportunity for the Chinese leader to keep his military posturing to himself.

An aggressive response also risks stoking confrontation with the US, not yet six months after Xi and US President Joe Biden called to enhance communication during a face-to-face meeting in Bali.

Tsai and the State of the Union: State-of-the-Art Taiwan, Trade and Correlations in the U.S.

Tsai will gather with McCarthy and a bipartisan group of US lawmakers at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California’s Simi Valley, McCarthy’s office said in a press release earlier this week.

Tsai then made her way to Central America for official visits to Guatemala and Belize, two of the 13 countries that recognize Taiwan and not Beijing as a legitimate government.

Tsai’s delegation is making a planned stopover in California following official visits to Taiwan’s diplomatic allies Guatemala and Belize – part of a 10-day tour to shore up Taipei’s overseas relationships amid increasing pressure from Beijing.

China held live-fire training for its air force, navy and ground forces over the last weekend in preparation for the meeting with Tsai Ing-wen.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry called Beijing’s threats “increasingly absurd and unreasonable” on Tuesday, saying Taiwan “does not accept interference or suppression by any country for any reason, and will not set limits on itself because of intimidation or interference.”

His visit was largely criticized by Taiwan’s political party, a reflection of the different ways in which the political establishment in Taiwan views relations with China.

“We will closely follow the development of the situation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the consulate said in a Monday statement – one of multiple condemnations from Chinese officials in recent weeks as reports of the meeting emerged.

“Taiwan will not back down, and friends in the US who support Taiwan and Taiwan-US relations will not back down either. Democratic partners will only become more united and have more frequent exchanges,” the statement said.

A source close to McCarthy told CNN that the Speaker wants to create a select committee on China and see the US relationship with China as a central issue of our time.

Wednesday’s meeting is also expected to include Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, who is a member of Democratic leadership, and the leaders of the new select committee on China, among others, according to a copy of the invite list obtained by CNN.

A week ago, she met with three US senators in New York. Republican Sens. Joni Ernst and Dan Sullivan and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly all met with Tsai, according to sources familiar with the meeting. The Wall Street Journal reported these meetings.