The US warns against aiding Russia’s war as China hosts Lukashenko

Vladimir Putin and his troops in Ukraine in the early 2000’s: Ending the Cold War and Losing a Million of Russians to China

On the opening day of the Winter Olympics back then, Putin and Xi declared there was no limit to their friendship with no limits to their cooperation. Twenty days later, after months of denying any intention to invade Ukraine, Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s borders in what they — and much of the world — expected would be a quick operation to conquer the fledgling democracy next door.

Zelensky could be warned that Putin might be getting Chinese weaponry if he didn’t make concessions to the Ukranian government. If sending weapons to Russia could cause Western sanctions against China, it would be possible for Xi to do that. Zelensky has refused to let Russia keep any Ukrainian land, so it would be very hard for him to allow China to keep that land.

Fiona Hill, who has advised three US Presidents on national security about Russia, also thinks Putin may be attempting an end game. “He feels a sense of acute urgency that he was losing momentum, and he’s now trying to exit the war in the same way that he entered it. With him being the person in charge and also framing the whole terms of a negotiation. In other words,

Putin has been able to lose several battles on the battlefield, including lack of basic equipment. Morale within parts of Russia is low, with many civilians facing economic hardship during the bitter winter.

Putin argued it was good riddance, part of a “self-cleansing” of Russian society from traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.

The perception that Putin is losing his touch at reading Russia’s mood is growing, as can be seen by the 40 kilometer tailback at the border with Georgia.

Kortunov understands the public mood about the huge costs and loss of life in the war but he does not know what goes on in the Kremlin. “Many people would start asking questions, why did we get into this mess? Why, you know, we lost so many people.”

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

But to apply the special case of negotiation — with few parameters and a narrow range of outcomes — to a complex, fluid and much wider geopolitical rivalry is a category error. There is no specific category of action that the West or Ukraine could take that would automatically cause a Russian nuclear crisis. Russia has no red lines: It only has, at each moment, a range of options and perceptions of their relative risks and benefits. Through diplomacy the West wants to shape the perception that Russia chooses the option that the West prefers.

What Russian President Vladimir V. Putin sees in the aftermath of the First Day of the Russian Invasion of Kyiv: Nuclear Threats and Counterattacks

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

Russia denies responsibility and says it has launched its own investigation. John Brennan, former CIA chief, said Russia has the ability to make this type of damage happen because it has an underwater capability that will be able to put a device by those oil and gas lines.

Western intelligence sources have told them that Russian naval vessels were seen in the area by European security officials. NATO described the damage as a deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.

While Europe rushed to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter and dial back demands for Russian supplies, Putin limited Nord Stream 2 to a maximum of two hours per day.

The Russian president had a plan to take over the country. Those plans dissolved from the first days of the Russians’ invasion with their failure to capture Kyiv.

No one knows what is in Putin’s mind. Kortunov doubts Putin will be willing to compromise beyond his own terms for peace, “not on the terms that are offered by President Zelensky, not on the terms which are offered by the West… .[though] he should be ready to exercise a degree of flexibility. But we don’t know what these degrees [are] likely to be.”

It was predicted that Putin would pitch France and Germany to end the war, use any means necessary, and pressure the Ukrainians to end the war.

Putin knows he is in a corner, but doesn’t seem to realize how small a space he has, and that of course is what’s most worrying – would he really make good on his nuclear threats?

WASHINGTON — For all his threats to fire tactical nuclear arms at Ukrainian targets, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is now discovering what the United States itself concluded years ago, American officials suspect: Small nuclear weapons are hard to use, harder to control and a far better weapon of terror and intimidation than a weapon of war.

Many US officials say that the primary utility would be an attempt by Mr. Putin to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The officials spoke under the condition of anonymity for the purpose of describing the most delicate discussions inside the administration.

Russian missiles bombarded villages and cities across Ukraine on Thursday in one of the largest missile barrages since the war began, officials said, killing at least three people.

The Cost of Chaos: The Case of the U.S. Helping Ukraine to Isolate and Weaken Russia – A CNN Security Analysis

Peter Bergen is a CNN national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor at Arizona State University. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” His views in this commentary are not shared by anyone else. View more opinion on CNN.

The timing couldn’t have been worse. The loss of Lyman was related to Putin declaring that the eastern part of Russia was now annexed by the country.

Above all, Putin still does not appear to have learned that revenge is not an appropriate way to act on or off the battlefield and in the final analysis is most likely to isolate and weaken Russia, perhaps irreversibly.

In his address in the Kremlin on Tuesday, he claimed that attempts to rewrite and weaken world history were being made by some countries in an attempt to divide the society and weaken Russia.

Russian television last week showed a story in which Shurokin suggested the Kremlin was trying to force Ukraine into its sphere of influence and keep it out of NATO. Shurokin said: “We just want one thing, for Ukraine to be independent of the West and NATO and be friendly to the Russian state.”

According to a recent book, the Soviets planned to remove a puppet government from Afghanistan as soon as possible when they invaded the country in 1979.

During the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US was initially reluctant to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance, fearing a wider conflict with the Soviet Union. After the end of the soviets’ air superiority in Afghanistan, the CIA arm the Afghans with anti-aircraft missiles, forcing them to withdraw from the country.

The Russian fortunes on the battlefield will again be dependent upon the help of American weaponry. The US was not willing to take on deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine due to fear of a larger conflict with the Russians.

But the US put those fears to rest relatively quickly, and American-supplied anti-tank Javelin missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), GPS-guided missiles, have helped the Ukrainians to push back against the Russians.

The Russian Revolution, the Cuban Missile Crisis and Armageddon – A Phenomenology of Putin’s Legacy in the Cold War

Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.

Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. The Russian Revolution began after Czar Nicholas II lost his leadership during the First World War. Subsequently, much of the Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.

On February 22 – just two days before Russia’s invasion – former US President Donald Trump, who has always fawned over Putin, publicly said that the Russian autocrat was “genius” and “savvy” for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there in a prelude to full-blown invasion.

It’s a process that US officials say has been driven by the Ukrainian military’s evolving capabilities, by its needs on the battlefield and by Russia’s evolving tactics. Biden has a goal to maintain unity in the allied coalition.

If Russia wins, this would mark the beginning of a new era of global instability with less freedom, less peace and less prosperity for the world.

President Biden was quoted as saying that the world may be facing the prospect of Armageddon if President Putin used a nuclear weapon.

The Cuban Missile Crisis came right out of Biden’s mind, which is why he referred to it twice during his speech at the Democratic fund-raiser. The closest the world came to a full nuclear exchange was when John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev struck a secret deal to remove American missiles from Turkey.

The disaster that could have caused tens of millions of deaths in Americans and billions of dollars in losses to the Soviets was averted because of that deal.

The explosion in Crimea-Russian bridge: “We will see what they can do for us” Russian Defense Minister Volodymyr Zelensky

On Monday, the Security Council of the Russian Federation will meet, two days after an explosion in a bridge linking Russia and the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.

The meeting comes at a crossroads for the Kremlin, which has to make a series of unenviable decisions after Russian troops pulled back from the battlefield in eastern Ukraine following a tumultuous month of military setbacks.

Some road traffic and train traffic has resumed on the estimated $3.7 billion bridge. On Saturday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said repair works on the bridge would be carried out around the clock, with a damage survey to be completed within a day and divers scheduled to check all the supports of the bridge.

Russia’s Ministry of Transport said in a statement that passenger services on the bridge resumed on Saturday, traveling from the peninsula to southern Russia.

In two lanes, car traffic has resumed, according to the deputy prime minister of Russia. “Traffic has already been launched along two lanes on the Crimean bridge,” he wrote in a Telegram post, adding that earlier, one lane was being used for cars traveling in alternate directions, slowing down traffic. Heavy trucks, vans and buses have been traveling by ferry since the blast.

A series of explosions, including along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, have put into question Russia’s ability to defend its own strategic infrastructure.

“They are trying to annihilate us and wipe us off the face of the earth,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram on Monday as the scale of the attacks became clear. That is what it is in a nutshell. They want to kill our people who are sleeping in their homes. They are trying to kill people who are on their way to work.

Russian drone strikes hit the Kyiv region, including an educational facility, killing at least four people and injuring 20. At least three women were killed when a humanitarian support center was struck by Russia.

Russian attack on the bridge blast at the Svatove site in Luhansk, Ukraine, on Tuesday morning: State media said russia does not intend to use nuclear force against Russia

Russian state media said that the spokesman for the Kremlin dismissed the possibility of Russia using nukes to retaliate for the bridge blast.

The hope is that Ukraine can use its arsenal of sophisticated weapons to transition away from the sort of pitched battle of attrition that has dominated much of the fighting to a style of mechanized maneuver warfare that uses rapid, unanticipated movements against Russia, sources familiar with their discussion said. It is the goal to yield decisive battlefield gains to put Ukraine in a strong position to negotiate a peace, but also to keep an eye on less intense warfare tactics.

Photographs of Ukrainian troops outside Luhansk, less than a mile away from the crucial post of Svatove, were acknowledged by Hayday.

Since February, missile and rocket attacks have killed at least two people and injured many others in most of Ukraine.

Moscow fired at least 84 cruise missiles toward Ukraine on Monday, the Ukrainian military said, 43 of which were neutralized by missile defense systems. Thirty-one Russian attack drones were also used in the battle.

For several hours on Monday morning Kyiv’s subway system was suspended, with underground stations serving as bunkers. The alert about the air raid was lifted at midday, because rescue workers were attempting to get people out of the rubble.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Demys Shmygal stated on Monday that as of 11 a.m., a total of 11crucial infrastructure facilities in eight regions had been damaged.

The Ukrainian State Emergency Services said Monday that the electricity supply had been cut in some areas. In the rest of the country, the electricity was disrupted.

Ukraine’s Special Operation: Action of General Relativity on a Crimean War. Moscow and the Netherlands are outraged

Russian-appointed head of annexed Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed on Monday that his country’s approach to its special military operation in Ukraine has changed.

If the actions to destroy the enemy’s infrastructure had been done daily, we would have finished off the regime in May, he said.

Air raid sirens will stay loud all over Ukraine. The rockets are still hitting. Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded. Do not leave your shelters, that’s what I asked you. Stay safe and take care of your families. Let’s hang in there and be strong,” Zelensky added.

NATO leaders have vowed to stand behind Ukraine regardless of how long the war takes, but several European countries – particularly those that relied heavily on Russian energy – are staring down a crippling cost-of-living crisis which, without signs of Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, could endanger public support.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte claimed that Putin is endangering innocent civilians in other cities. The Netherlands condemns the heinous acts. The will of the Ukrainian people is strong, and Putin doesn’t understand that.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the attacks “another unacceptable escalation of the war and, as always, civilians are paying the highest price.”

The Russian War is About to Go Ahead: Zelensky Addresses G7 Summit in Minsk (Belarus)

Zelensky said on his account that he would address the G7 meeting on Tuesday, after the German Chancellor’s office confirmed to CNN that there would be an emergency meeting.

There have been fears throughout the conflict in Ukraine that Belarus will again be used as a launching ground for another Russian offensive, or that Lukashenko’s own troops would join the war. Before Visiting Moscow earlier this month, Lukashenko claimed there is “no way” his country will send troops to Ukraine unless it is attacked.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

He gave no details on Monday of the size or precise purpose of the new joint force, stirring speculation that Belarus might send troops into Ukraine to help Russia’s flailing military campaign. Alternatively, he could be preparing his country for the arrival of thousands of freshly drafted Russian soldiers, some of them former convicts and many of them ill trained.

The Belarusianstrongman has resisted pressure from Moscow to send in his own troops and he accused Ukraine of being behind a planned attack from the south.

There could be a psychological impact from further involvement in the war. “Everyone’s mind in Ukraine and in the West has been oriented towards fighting one army,” he said. Inside Russia, Belarus joining the invasion “would play into Putin’s narrative that this war is about reuniting the lands of ancient Rus states.”

Since the early 1990’s, no nuclear weapons have been on its territory. After gaining independence, it agreed to transfer all the Soviet-era weapons of mass destruction to Russia.

The deputy foreign minister, Andrei Sannikov, served under Lukashenko but fled into exile after being jailed.

Ukraine has become the epicenter of a global conflict; a hub whose spokes connect to every country, every life. Russia has already taken a toll on the world, starting with its Iranian drones, civilian targets, and weaponization of hunger.

The war is about to go into a new phase, not for the first time. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, said that the war was the third, fourth, or fifth one they had been observing.

“What seemed a distant prospect for anything that could be convincingly described as a Ukraine victory is now very much more plausible,” Giles said. Russia’s response is likely to escalate further.

Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. Ukraine said it had liberated five settlements in its push in Kherson.

Russian troops have left a large swath of the Kherson region including the country’s biggest city, Kharkiv. Another problem for Putin are attacks this week against air force bases deep inside Russia. He put much of the country, especially border areas, on security alert recently, and fresh signs emerged Wednesday that Russian officials are strengthening border defensive positions.

In the summer a suggestion was made in the West and Russia that Ukraine couldn’t win the war if it did not have the ability to seize ground.

It is the same strategy as the Russian one. With its slow advance and defensive lines, Russia has tried to drag Ukraine into this kind of extended war, believing it can outlast the Ukrainians, officials said.

It will be a big success for the Russians if they are able to get to Christmas with the frontline looking just as it is.

The Kremlin appointed a new overall commander of Russia’s invasion after facing growing setbacks. With the pace and costs of the Ukrainian counter-offensives, it’s doubtful that Gen. Sergey Surovikin can lead his forces back onto the front foot before the end of the year.

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

Within Ukraine, the economy continues to stumble from the impact of war and persistent missile and drone attacks on critical power infrastructure – including at least 76 strikes on Friday. millions of Ukrainians are going without heat, electricity and water during the winter. (However, indicative of the resiliency that Ukrainians have displayed since the start of the war, many say they are prepared to endure such hardship for another two to five years if it means defeating Russia).

Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air, but Monday’s attacks may have achieved one goal – sending a signal of strength towards the growing list of Putin’s internal critics.

After Russian missiles hit the country, Ukrenergo says it has been able to provide power to the rest of the country. The Ukrainian Prime Minister warned that there was a lot of work to be done and asked the people to cut their energy use during peak hours.

Experts believe it remains unlikely that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern; while estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

Matters have not improved for the Russians since then. The British Defense Ministry has some of the most up-to-date and accurate intelligence on the Russian military in Ukraine.

“Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the ISW assessed.

Exactly how much weaponry and manpower each side has left in reserve will be crucial to determining how the momentum will shift in the coming weeks. The Missile Defense Agency of Ukraine said it successfully defended its homeland against cruise missiles on Tuesday and Monday, but wants more equipment from Western allies to repel future attacks.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

The impact of such an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited; Belarus has around 45,000 active duty troops, which would not significantly bolster Russia’s reserves. It would cause another attack on the Ukrainian side of the border.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. It would provide a new route into the region, which has been reclaimed by Russia, if Putin prioritised regaining that territory.

By reversing the narrative of the conflict over the past few months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved one of his objectives: showing his Western allies that military aid can help win the war.

Ahead of a NATO defense ministers’ meeting in December, the NATO Secretary General said that Ukraine needed more systems to be able to halt missile attacks.

The IRIS-T, which arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the US, is a badly needed modern system. , Bronk said.

The State of Ukraine: NPR’s Observation of the First Russian Air Strikes on Ukraine and the Plight of Alperovitch

However, Ukraine’s civilians remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. The blackmail of energy by cutting off gas supplies, shutting off electricity, and bombing electric substations all over the place is called by Dmitri Alperovitch. Putin’s strategy will inflict pain, he said. Even if your economy is in dire straits, you will continue to fight even if you don’t have heat. And I think he’s miscalculated on this front.”

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. Along the line of contact, they could also fill out units that were not up to snuff. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. There are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers.

NATO is going to hold nuclear deterrence exercises. NATO has warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine but says the “Steadfast Noon” drills are a routine, annual training activity.

Russian agents detained eight people on Oct. 12 suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge to Crimea, including Russian, Ukrainian and Armenian citizens.

Russia was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly for annexing four regions of Ukraine. In the Oct. 13 session, four countries voted alongside Russia, but 143 voted in favor of Ukraine’s resolution, while 35 abstained.

Russia’s defense ministry said on Oct. 15 that two men shot at Russian troops and killed 11 and wounded 15 before committing suicide.

Russian troops began arriving in Belarus Oct. 15, which Minsk said were the first convoys of almost 9,000 service members expected as part of a “regional grouping” of forces allegedly to protect Belarus from threats at the border from Ukraine and the West.

You can read past recaps here. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. NPR’s State of Ukraine is a great way to get updates throughout the day.

Even if President Zelenskyy reached an opinion that we should stop the punishment, we should negotiate. I don’t think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.”

The Cipher Brief: The Ukrain-Russia War for the Past, and the Ukraine’s Trouble With Future (The Case of Georgia)

The annual conference in Sea Island is run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community to look at the big picture of global security.

The conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, according to a top Ukrainian official.

The Intelligence Project runs by a former CIA officer at Harvard says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. He says that it’s the opposite. “Putin’s memory when he runs into obstacles is to escalate,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

“That is a burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. It means that if he has the funds to fight then this will be a long war since it is likely to continue for many, many months.

The fast approaching winter will likely slow the war but it won’t stop it. David Petraeus thinks the harsh weather favors the Ukrainians on the battlefield. “The Ukrainians can knock on the door and be taken in and get warmed up and get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. He said that they were welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers were trying to kill them.

At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end. “Negotiations are usually the solution to wars, but I don’t think there will be any in the near term,” stated Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.

The war began with a Russian invasion, he said, and has been intense ever since. Greg Myre is an NPR National Security Correspondent. Follow him on social media.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and the Conflict in the Middle East: A Warning Message for the Russians in the Light of the Ukrainian Martial Law

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, appeared to be taking pains to assure those who were questioning him. There is no plan to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life, according to Mr. Sobyanin.

Despite the new power granted to them, regional governors of Krasnodar and the others said there wouldn’t be entry or exit restrictions.

There is a good chance that many Russians are going to see a warning message when they hear about the martial law imposed in Ukranian.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

Russia, which has been a dominant military force in Syria since 2015 and helps maintain the government’s grip on power, still keeps a sizable presence there. But the change could herald shifts in the balance of power in one of the world’s most complicated conflict zones, and may lead Israel — Syria’s enemy — to rethink its stance toward the Ukraine conflict.

Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. His views are not represented in this commentary. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

Emmanuel Macron, the EU’s biggest currency, and the fate of its manifolds: the prospects for European cooperation in the wake of Russian embargoes and the Kremlin

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

In the early hours of Friday, European Union powers agreed to control energy prices, which have been on the rise in the wake of Russia’s exports being embargoes and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is skeptical of price caps. It is important to work out details with Germany about the impact caps will have on higher consumption.

The divisions are a part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

France and Germany are already at odds over many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the Cold War With Ukraine: The Trump-Russia Conflict & Its Implications

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

In an audio clip that was recorded in 2010, Berlusconi said that he had returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine.

Matteo Salvini said during the campaign that he would not want sanctions on Russia to harm those who already impose them more than those who don’t.

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

Comments by Kevin McCarthy and others show that while Biden is able to promise that the US would be with Kyiv as long as it takes, he can not guarantee it. It may be as important for Ukraine as it is for the United States.

The Congressional progressive caucus called on the vice president to start negotiations with Russia so that they can end the conflict while the Russians still occupy vast swaths of the country.

Hours later, Mia Jacob, who faced criticism, sent a statement to the media clarifying her comments. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Dmytro Kuleba to encourage support for the country.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

This support in arms, materiel, and now training for Ukrainian forces has allowed them to win the battle against a weakened, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.

The West continues to try and crimp Russian energy profits, by capping the amount countries will pay for Russian oil and limiting seaborne oil imports. There are signs the efforts are already cutting into profits.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The last time the Soviet era ended was 30 years ago.

As CNN previously reported, the Biden administration last month raised concerns with China about evidence it has suggesting that Chinese companies have sold non-lethal equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine, in an effort to ascertain how much Beijing knows about the transactions, according to two US officials.

The DOJ announced charges against individuals and companies for violating sanctions by attempting to bring high tech equipment into Russia.

The End of the World: Putin’s War in Ukraine, the Role of the United States, the West, and the U.S.

Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. If you want to be convinced, we will kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

Editor’s Note: Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She writes for CNN, The Washington Post, and World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. CNN has more opinion on it.

Those adamant denials changed later, with Iran claiming it sold weapons before the war started, but those were not being used in Ukraine. Now, newly-declassified documents show the drones in Ukraine are identical to those Iran has used in the Middle East.

The United States retains some visibility over the Russian arsenal, mostly with satellites that keep track of Russian nuclear movements. There is a bigger worry. The five-year extension of New START that President Biden and Mr. Putin agreed upon in the first month of the Biden presidency is the only one permitted under the agreement, which was negotiated during the Obama presidency. A new treaty would need to be put together. It’s difficult to see how an American would want to negotiate a new treaty in the next three years.

The intersection of the war in Ukraine and the conflicts surrounding Iran is just one example of how Ukraine has become the pivot point for so many of the world’s geopolitical tensions.

The direction of human history is at stake, according to the historian Yuval Noah Harari, because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to war, something that most nations had come to reject since the Second World War.

The United States led the support from the West. There were new applications for membership from countries that had committed to neutrality as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. It also helped reaffirm the interest of many in eastern European states – former Soviet satellites – of orienting their future toward Europe and the West.

Some of the things that happen far from the battlefields still have repercussions there. The US accused the Saudis of assisting Russia in funding the war by boosting its oil revenues when they decided last month to slash production. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Weapons supplies to Ukraine have created tension with Israel, which makes its defense systems against incoming missile more effective. Ukraine has asked Israel to provide those systems, including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, but Israel refuses, citing its own strategic concerns.

A UN and Turkey-brokered agreement allowed Ukraine’s maritime corridors to reopen, but this week Moscow temporarily suspended that agreement after Russian Navy ships were struck at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Putin’s announcement was immediately followed by a surge in wheat prices on global commodity markets. Those prices partly determine how much people pay for bread in Africa and across the planet.

Families and peoples’ lives are affected by higher prices. They pack a political punch when they gain so much power. Inflation, worsened by the war, has put incumbent political leaders on the defensive in countless countries.

What Xi Jinping Needs to Stop Russia from Doing More to Prevent Further Warfare in Ukraine? The Case for a Cold War in China

There is more to it than just on the fringes. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader who could become speaker of the House after next week’s US elections, suggested the GOP might choose to reduce aid to Ukraine. The letter calling for talks was put out by the Progressives. Evelyn Farkas was a former Pentagon official who said they were all bringing a smile to Putin.

BERLIN — He had just 11 hours in Beijing, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used this precious time to urge Chinese leader Xi Jinping to use his influence over Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to prevent further escalation in Ukraine.

During Friday’s meeting, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi Jinping called on the international community to “reject the threat of nuclear weapons and advocate against a nuclear war to prevent a crisis on the Eurasian continent.”

In the days leading up to Scholz’s trip, he went against the advice of many advisers and cabinet ministers to approve a 24.9% stake in the port of Hamburg by Chinese state-run shipping giant COSCO, a move that 69% of Germans polled by Deutschland Trend called a “wrong move.” The U.S. also voiced misgivings about the deal.

Immediately following his meeting with Xi, Scholz appeared in a press conference with Li, the outgoing Chinese premier. He said that calling for the protection of the rights of ethnic minorities in the Chinese region of Xinjiang is not an interference in China’s internal affairs, because all United Nations members have agreed to protect those rights.

The world cannot afford another war in Ukraine, according to Li. China and Germany support multipolar solutions to international problems, and China is an attractive place for investment.

And Ukraine will be watching America’s midterm election results this week, especially after some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for Ukraine if it wins control of the House of Representatives, as forecast.

Sweden’s Midterm Report on Ukraine’s Nuclear Collisions and the U.S.-China Nuclear Security Assistance to the IRAS

Turkish President and Prime Minister of Sweden will meet on Tuesday. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.

The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday is scheduled to discuss an International Atomic Energy Agency report, in which Ukraine is expected to be on the agenda.

Russia agreed to return to a UN brokered deal regarding the export of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine. Russia had decided to suspend its part in the deal after learning of a Ukrainian drone attack on its ships.

The Pentagon will give more than $400 million in new security aid to Ukraine.

The Biden-Xi summit gave the West time to digest the event. China is a threat to Taiwan and the United States because of its poor human rights record. But avoiding a Cold War or a direct, especially an accidental conflict, is crucial.

A well-functioning democratic process in the US is likely disappointing to Xi and other autocrats hoping that deep divisions not only continue to weaken the country from within but also prove that democracy is chaotic and ineffective, inferior to their autocratic systems, as they like to claim. The midterms brought the American President to the table with a stronger hand to play.

The meeting was perfect for a number of reasons, the biggest of which is that there is more to this than who controls the House and Senate.

Xi and Putin: The End of the Cold War and the Beginning of the Restoration of the Covid Paradigm. The U-turn of Kherson

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, made a triumphant return to the devastated city of Kherson, which he had been in when Russian tanks had rolled into the province.

Much has changed since that day in Beijing, when Xi and Putin smiled for the cameras, expecting a new era to begin. The war didn’t turn out as expected, but it did make it clear that democracies need to push back against belligerent antidemocratic regimes and keep them from joining forces.

The alliance is not as valuable to China as it once was, and the push for a quick victory in Ukraine by Putin looks like a disaster.

The position paper was released on the anniversary of the invasion and it called for a cease-fire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Earlier in the week, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s top diplomat met in Moscow and pledged to strengthen ties.

Putin avoided confrontations with the world leader at the G20 summit in Indonesia, as he became a pariah on the global stage.

The opportunity for the west to manage the relationship with China has been created by the desire of Xi to emerge as a de facto leader of a major strategic bloc, but one with the prestige of a statesman. It is an objective he reiterated on Thursday while talking about the Chinese balloon that traversed the US earlier this month.

The country is currently fighting its worst-ever Covid outbreak after finally abandoning its stringent zero- Covid policy. The U-turn came after an unprecedented wave of protests across the country in opposition to zero-Covid – in some cases expanding to include broader grievances against Xi and the ruling Communist Party.

Russia is coming to the rescue – and does Putin really want to leave the G19? The case of the Khmer Rouge defector Mikhail Zygar

In order for the two systems to win the war against one another, they must demonstrate that democracy works, defeating the efforts of certain countries such as China and Russia to undermine it, and proving that unprovoked war of aggression will not succeed.

Now Poland is facing the repercussions from these attacks – and it’s not the only bordering country. Russian rockets have also knocked out power across neighboring Moldova, which is not a NATO member, and therefore attracted considerably less attention than the Polish incident.

Whatever the exact circumstances of the missile, one thing is clear. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for its illegal war against Ukraine.

His forces have planted mines in vast stretches of territory in Kherson from which they’ve recently withdrawn – much as the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia stretching back to the 1970s. Cambodian de-mining experts have been called in to help with the task facing Ukraine. Russian armies have left behind a lot of atrocities and torture, reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.

That said, a growing number of Russian soldiers have rebelled at what they have been asked to do and refused to fight. The Defense Ministry believes that Russian troops may be prepared to shoot at retreating soldiers.

Indeed a hotline and Telegram channel, launched as a Ukrainian military intelligence project called “I want to live,” designed to assist Russian soldiers eager to defect, has taken off, reportedly booking some 3,500 calls in its first two months of activity.

Diplomatically, Putin finds himself increasingly isolated on the world stage. The session of the G20 was dubbed the “G19” by Zelensky, as the only head of state to stay away. When Putin wanted to return to the G7 after his ousting from the G8, inclusion now seems a distant dream. Russia’s sudden ban on 100 Canadians, including Canadian-American Jim Carrey, from entering the country only made the comparison with North Korea more striking.

One leading Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who has settled in Berlin after fleeing in March, told me last week that while he hoped this is not the case, he is prepared to accept the reality – like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland, to which he remains deeply attached.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/opinions/putin-poland-missile-ukraine-nato-andelman/index.html

Status of Russia’s war on the Continuum, the Energy, and Nuclear Security: A State-of-the-Art Analysis

Rumbling behind the West’s attempt to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas in order to diminish the country’s resources for fighting this war. Ursula von der Leyen spoke at the G20 on Tuesday and said that the European Commission realised that it was an unsustainable dependency and now wants reliable and forward looking connections.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. The Future Combat Air System, Europe’s largest weapons program, wasstarting to move forward on Monday, after word began to spread that the long-stalled joint French andGerman project for a next-generation jet fighter was beginning to move forward.

Russian hopes of an immediate seizure of the country have largely been dashed, with the army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines.

And in an opinion article by CNN’s Peter Bergen, retired US General and former CIA Chief David Petraeus said the conflict would end in a “negotiated resolution” when Putin realizes the war is unsustainable on the battlefield and on the home front.

A premature truce allows both sides to re-arm, Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at the CNA think tank, told me in an interview.

“This has become a grinding war of attrition and therefore it’s also a battle of logistics,” Stoltenberg said. The war in Ukranian is consuming an enormous amount of military equipment. The current rate of production in our country is not even close to that of the current rate of expenditure.

According to a report by Kofman, the manufacture of weapons in Russia has gone from 2 to 3 a day, in some factories to 3. He said that this indicates that they wouldn’t double and triple shifts if they had component parts.

The US and its Allies are Ready to Rejoin in the War on Ukrainian Hostile Systems: The Real Challenge is in the End of the War

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff said recently.

The paper concluded that negotiation and dialogue were the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis. Efforts to facilitate peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.

General Mick Ryan, a fellow at the Center forStrategic and International Studies, told me that giving the Russians time to regroup and rearm would relieve the pressure on their forces. “They have been at it hard for nine months. Their forces are exhausted.”

The images showed that “in total, at least 52 Russian ammunition depots have been hit by the Ukrainian military since the end of March 2022.” The analysts think that most of the Russian depots are on the Ukrainian side.

If China begins supplying the arsenal for Putin’s army, all current thinking about the course of the war could be upended. Mr. Zelensky is worried about more than just China.

But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. And the Russian mindset may become “we may not have everything we wanted. We will annex the Donbas into Russia and we’ll hold onto the peninsula. I think they are going to make a bet right now.

Cease hostilities are called for by the Chinese, as are peace talks. But, unlike Zelensky’s plan, it does not require Russia to remove its troops currently occupying big pieces of Ukraine.

But were the war to resume months or years from now, there’s a real question as to whether the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many are beginning to wish was already over.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s War on Ukraine: From the First Russian Operation to the First Battlefield Seizement of the Sea of Azov

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the military operation he launched in Ukranian will take longer than expected, but that he has succeeded in seizing new territory.

“Of course, it could be a lengthy process,” Putin said of the more than 9-month-old war that began with Russia’s invasion Feb. 24 and has displaced millions from their homes, and killed and wounded tens of thousands. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He reiterated his claim that he had no choice but to send in troops, saying that for years, the West responded to Russia’s security demands with “only spit in the face.”

Speaking in a televised meeting in Russia with members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as “a significant result for Russia,” noting that the Sea of Azov “has become Russia’s internal sea.” In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.

Moscow’s problems have only been underscored by its annexation of four territories of Ukraine and the fact that it doesn’t have full control over the lands it now claims.

He said that if it doesn’t use it first under any circumstances, it will not be the second to use it if a nuclear strike were to occur.

Putin said his previous nuclear weapons comments were not a factor in provoking an increase in conflict, but a factor of deterrence.

The failure in the early days of the war to oust the elected government of Ukraine and Russia’s significant setbacks on the battlefield were not discussed in Putin’s address.

In the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the governor posted photos of new concrete anti-tank barriers — known as “dragon’s teeth” — in open fields. The governor said a fire broke out at the airport in the region after a drone strike. In neighboring Belgorod, workers were expanding anti-tank barriers and officials were organizing “self-defense units.” Belgorod has seen fires and explosions apparently from cross-border attacks, and its governor claims that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.

Two Russian air bases were hit by drones more than a thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Moscow blamed Ukraine, which didn’t claim responsibility.

Moscow hit civilians and infrastructure with missiles, tanks and mortars, causing further damage to the power grid. The temperatures in the east were as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius, according to Ukrenergo.

At his meeting, Putin discussed the mobilization of 300,000 reservists that he ordered in September to bolster forces in Ukraine. More than 300,000 have been deployed to combat zones thus far, and the rest are still undergoing training. Addressing speculation that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilization, Putin said: “There is no need for the Defense Ministry and the country to do that.”

After the ceremony for “Heroes of Russia” at the Kremlin, he addressed a group of soldiers who received the awards with a glass of champagne.

The reference to Kursk appears to reference Russia’s announcement that an airfield in the Kursk region, which neighbors Ukraine, was targeted in a drone attack. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has not commented on recent explosions, which are deep within Russia. Officially, the targets are well beyond the reach of the country’s declared drones.

At the awards ceremony, Putin continued to list the alleged actions of those not in possession of water. It is an act of genocide to not supply water to a million people.

He claimed that there is no mention of the water situation after his off-the-cuff comments. Nobody has said anything about it. At all! Complete silence ,” he said.

Vladimir Zelensky: From l’evy to the lysée palace, back to the early 2022 presidential campaign

Russian authorities reported shelling of the city this week, which they said was in defiance of international law.

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst based in Odesa. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic council and a former spokesman for the Organization for security and cooperation in Europe He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions in this commentary are of his own. View more opinion at CNN.

I witnessed Zelensky pull up to the lysée Palace in a modest car, while Putin drove in with an armored limo. French President Emmanuel Macron hugged Putin but did not shake Zelensky’s hand.

Fast forward to 2022 and Zelensky is the instantly recognizable wartime president in trademark olive green; as adept at rallying his citizens and stirring the imaginations of folks worldwide, as naming and shaming allies dragging their feet in arming his military.

Zelensky was described as an ordinary man thrust into extraordinary circumstances by the Eastern European editor of the Economist.

“After the full-scale invasion, once he got into a position of being bullied by someone like Vladimir Putin he knew exactly what he needed to do because it was just his gut feeling,” Yevhen Hlibovytsky, former political journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think tank and consultancy, pro.mova, told me.

The leader who offered to leave the US as Russia launched a large-scale invasion quipped that he needed bullets, not a ride.

Zelensky has good reason to trust his powers of persuasion, and by now the US has also learned that Zelensky can be a very convincing advocate for his country.

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. He looked in disbelief as he stood on stage with the confetti, defeated Petro Poroshenko.

The war appears to have turned his ratings around. Just days after the invasion, Zelensky’s ratings approval surged to 90%, and remain high to this day. Even Americans early in the war rated Zelensky highly for his handling of international affairs – ahead of US President Joe Biden.

He had a career as a TV and theatrical comedian, with the group Kvartal 95. The press conference held on the platform of a metro station in April featured a perfect lighting and camera angles, which were used to emphasize a wartime setting.

As for his skills as comforter in chief, I remember well the solace his nightly televised addresses brought in the midst of air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

Introducing the Silicon Valley to the Global: A Conversation with Fashion and Politics in the Age of the 21st Century: Volodymyr Zelensky

“By wearing T-shirts and hoodies, the youthful, egalitarian uniform of Silicon Valley, rather than suits, Zelensky is projecting confidence and competence in a modern way, to a younger, global audience that recognizes it as such,” Kimberly Chrisman-Campbell, a fashion historian and author of “Red, White, and Blue on the Runway: The 1968 White House Fashion Show and the Politics of American Style,” told NPR.

She said that he was more comfortable on camera as an actor and as a digital native. “I believe both of them want to come across as relatable, not aloof or untouchable, although Zelensky is definitely doing a better job balancing authority with accessibility.”

Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicators in the international fora, as she journeyed to where her husband couldn’t. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. Zelenska didn’t appear on the cover of TIME magazine, but a passing reference was given in the supporting text.

The senior State Department official said that Zelensky’s room has gotten smaller as Russia’s atrocities have grown.

Zelensky said in a recent video address that when the world is truly united, it is 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609-.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to Congress “extraordinary,” saying the country’s fight against Russian aggression has “proven that they are a really good investment for the United States.”

The speech connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to know that families in Ukranian are at risk of being trapped in the cold.

“I hope that they will send more than one,” she added. She noted there’s “been some reluctance in the past” by the US and NATO to provide advanced equipment, but added “We’ve seen with our own eyes how effective Ukrainian military is.”

Clinton met Putin while she was US secretary of state and she said at the time that the Russian leader was probably impossible to predict.

Clinton said she thinks thatPutin is thinking about how to throw more bodies into the fight against the Ukrainians.

The Kremlin criticized the trip of the Ukrainian President after he secured billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

He said there had been no calls for peace or willingness to listen to Russia’s concerns during Zelenskyy’s visit, which he said proves the U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia.

The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

A Ukrainian military communications officer said that there are signs of an offensive by Russia in southern Ukraine.

Until then, US officials had argued that the Patriot system was too complex and scarce to give to Ukraine. Russia’s targeted campaign on civilian infrastructure jettisoned those arguments.

Putin is ready to present his peace proposition for Ukraine, as stated by the High-Energy Secretary of State S. Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference

Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.

Asked about whether they would invite Russia to the summit, he said that Moscow would first need to face prosecution for war crimes at an international court.

Kuleba said that he was completely satisfied with the outcome of Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S., as well as that the US government had made a special plan to get the missile battery ready to be operational. The training can take up to a year.

Kuleba said during the interview at the Foreign Ministry that Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role.

The United Nations is an excellent location for this summit because it isn’t about giving a favor to a particular country. This is about bringing everyone on board.

Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula that includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.

About Guterres’ role, Kuleba said: “He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. We would be happy with his participation.

Russian Foreign Minister Vladimir Kuleba during a visit to the United States during the February 24 Ukrainian-U.S.-Russia war and his failure to negotiate with Putin

“They regularly say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite,” he said.

Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. was his first foreign trip since the war started on Feb. 24. Kuleba highlighted the significance of the visit.

“This shows how both the United States are important for Ukraine, but also how Ukraine is important for the United States,” said Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S.

He said that the U.S. government developed a program for the missile battery to complete the training faster than usual “without any damage to the quality of the use of this weapon on the battlefield.”

While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” He said the training would be done outside of Ukraine.

During Russia’s ground and air war in Ukraine, Kuleba has been second only to Zelenskyy in carrying Ukraine’s message and needs to an international audience, whether through Twitter posts or meetings with friendly foreign officials.

The Foreign Ministry said that the Russian did not go through legal procedures in order to get membership in the UN Security Council after the fall of the Soviet Union.

As has often been the case throughout the conflict, the vaguely conciliatory tone from Putin was quickly contradicted by a heavy-handed message from one of his key officials.

Russia wants the demilitarization and denazification of Ukrainian- controlled territories, and Putin’s Foreign Minister said Monday thatUkraine should fulfill the demands.

Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to President Zelensky, told CNN Tuesday that Putin’s comments were likely an effort to buy time in the conflict.

It makes no sense for Ukraine or the West to even entertain the idea of a deal with Putin that will reward him for invading the country.

But Zelensky and his officials have said throughout that they will continue to sound out the possibility of negotiations, without raising any hopes that they would achieve a truce.

“Every war ends in a diplomatic way,” Kuleba told the AP on Monday. The actions of soldiers on the battlefield and those at the negotiating table are what end a war.

The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow. He urged the G20 to use their power to make Russia abandon nuclear threats and impose a price cap on energy imports from Moscow.

The Russian-Russian Correspondence after the First World War: What Will the Xi-Pubnik–Sukhaya Process Tell Us?

The world is different more than 10 months after the war began, and the dynamics between the two partners have changed accordingly, experts say.

Zelensky said during his press conference that he didn’t want a just peace to be compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity of the country.

The two leaders will primarily discuss bilateral relations between their countries, and exchange views on regional issues and their strategic partnership, The president’s spokesman said it on Thursday.

Though Beijing claimed impartiality in the conflict and no advance knowledge of Russia’s intent, it has refused to condemn Moscow and parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for provoking the conflict.

China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Modi told Putin last September that it was not the time for war, in an apparent criticism – although India has continued to maintain pivotal ties with Moscow.

In the months following, China’s domestic situation has changed so much that a different approach to Putin might be required this time.

The focus of the Moscow trip will be on strengthening relations between China and Russia. The professor at the University of Denver says it will most likely be a win for Xi, because of that.

She added that trade between the two countries had increased this year due to high energy prices globally – and the two leaders could “reaffirm their vows to cooperate economically.”

War against ukraine has left russia Isolated: The story of Russia after the Covid outbreak, March 11, 2014 / Nef-Russia

However, Wu said, the protests, Covid outbreak and consequent economic toll have placed Xi in a more vulnerable position that could mean less material and public support for Russia.

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

The war has disrupted the post-Soviet period in which the country pursued democratic reforms, at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Since February, there have been laws passed banning criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

There are more and more organizations and individuals on a growing list of so-called foreign agents and non-desirables intended to damage the Russian public’s reputation.

The most respected human rights group in Russia was forced to stop their activities because of alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The war inUkraine has led to the expansion of Russia’s anti-LGBT laws, and the state thinks it shows a broader attack on “traditional values.”

Repressions are still targeted for now. Some of the new laws are not enforced. There’s no doubt that the measures will crush dissent should the moment arise.

The new fake news laws forced prominent independent media outlets to relocate and shut down, as well as a number of vibrant, online investigative companies.

There are restrictions on internet users as well. American social media giants were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Putin’s Russia: Why the Kremlin had no good news in the first 10 months of the Russian war and what the consequences would have been for Ukraine

Thousands of perceived government opponents left in the war’s early days because of fears of persecution.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. Russian ownership eventually led to a new name for McDonald’s and several other brands. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

Europe will blink first when it comes to sanctions as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home, because President Putin is betting that they will pull back on their support for Ukraine. He announced a five-month ban on oil export to countries that abide by the price cap, a move that will likely make the pain more acute in Europe.

There is no change in the government’s tone when it comes to Russia’s military campaign. Daily briefings by the Defense Ministry in Russia describe successes on the ground. Everything is going according to plan, says Putin.

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates put the figure much higher.

“The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that, and steamrolling, that has not even come close to happening,” DeSantis said on Fox. I believe they are a third-rate military power.

The speech made good on a pledge that the Kremlin had repeatedly delayed and canceled in the midst of bad news from the battlefield in Ukraine.

The Russian leader’s annual December big press conference was tabled until 2023 because of the pro-Kremlin media’s interest.

The Kremlin didn’t give a reason for the delays. The Russian leader has had no good news to share in the 10 months that have passed since the beginning of the war.

Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian War in Ukraine: Do the U.S. and Russia Stand behind a Proposed Violation of the Red Lines?

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

Putin’s order came after the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, called for a ceasefire between January 6 and January 7, when many Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas.

Ukrainian officials said that Moscow just wanted a pause to gather reserves and equipment, even though they said they were skeptical about the truce.

During the Thursday evening address, Zelensky stated that Russia was going to use Orthodox Christmas as a cover to stop the Ukrainian advance in the eastern Donbas region.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak responded to Putin’s move on Twitter by saying that Russia must leave “occupied territories” in Ukraine before any “temporary truce.”

The US had little faith in Russia’s intentions behind the proposed ceasefire, according to a State Department spokesman.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday also warned that the promise of a ceasefire would not bring “either freedom or security” to the people living under Moscow’s brutal war.

Kirill has been a vocal supporter of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and gave a sermon in September in which he said that “military duty washes away all sins.”

The leader of the Russian Orthodox Church has clashed with the Pope because of his opinion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In November, a branch of Ukraine’s Orthodox church announced that it would allow its churches to celebrate Christmas on December 25, rather than January 7, as is traditional in Orthodox congregations.

In recent years a large part of the Orthodox community in Ukraine has moved away from Moscow, a movement accelerated by the conflict Russia stoked in eastern Ukraine beginning in 2014.

In the southern region of Kherson, Pavlo Skotarenko doesn’t expect much to change. Every day, they kill people in Kherson. And this temporary measure won’t change anything,” he said.

From the frontlines in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, a Ukrainian soldier told CNN that the temporary ceasefire announcement looked like an effort to clean up Russia’s image.

“I do not think that this is done for some military tactical purpose, one day will not solve much,” the Ukrainian soldier, who goes by the call sign Archer, told CNN by phone.

“Perhaps this is done to make the image of the whole of Russia a little more human, because so many atrocities are constantly emerging, and this could earn them few points of support from the people,” the soldier said.

Halyna Hladka said she thought the temporary truce was an attempt by Russians to win time.

Russia has shown an active use of faith in many kinds of manipulation. She said Russia had not behaved as a country capable of adhering to promises since the war began.

Ukrainian officials have warned for some time of a renewed Russian offensive and have asked for more powerful weaponry from Western allies to counter the threat.

The secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council told Sky News that these months would be defining in the war.

“We are on the edge of a very active phase of hostilities, February and March will be very active,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said on national television.

“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.

Vladimir Zelenskyy’s visit to Ukraine as a wake-up call to the West: NATO and the Warsaw pact

In a surprise visit to Europe,Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met leaders in London, Paris andBrussels to reiterate his call for allies to send fighter jets.

Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. President Biden made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and then to Poland during the run up to the event.

The international team investigating the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 found “strong indication” that Russian president Putin gave the green light to give anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels.

Mr. Putin is looking to shore up alliances as the Ukraine war approaches its first anniversary and the early stages of Russia’s new offensive to swallow up territory appear to be sputtering. As Mr Putin and Mr. Wang met, President Biden was gathering with NATO members from the alliance’s eastern flank in Warsaw in a display of unity.

The Western rhetorical and diplomatic offensive will ratchet up further as Vice President Kamala Harris heads to the Munich Security Conference this week. President Joe Biden will meanwhile visit Poland and a frontline NATO and ex-Warsaw pact state next week, bolstering his legacy of offering the most effective leadership of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.

The U.S. and China are Closer than Ever: How the US and China have fought each other in the Cold War, but haven’t broken their resolve

In the US House for instance, some members of the new Republican majority are skittish. Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz last week demanded an end to aid to Ukraine and for the US to demand all combatants “reach a peace agreement immediately.” The House and the Senate have bipartisan support for saving Ukraine. It’s not certain whether Biden can keep the aid packages forUkraine in perpetuity. And US aid might be in serious doubt if ex-President Donald Trump or another Republican wins the 2024 election.

The outside world knows that Putin doesn’t have a plan for ending the war because there isn’t a diplomatic framework to hold truce talks.

Fiona Hill, a leading expert on Russia and Putin, who worked in Trump’s White House, said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday that there were few signs Putin’s determination is waning.

While relations between the US and China continue to plummet – most recently due to the fallout from a suspected Chinese spy balloon that entered US airspace, China and Russia are as close as ever since their leaders declared a “no-limits” friendship a year ago – partly driven by their shared animosity toward the United States.

“You’re going to end up with an albatross around your neck,” Sherman said at an event at the Brookings Institution, though admitted the US was concerned about tightening ties between China and Russia at a time when it is locked in simultaneous showdowns with each power.

Arms control coordination between the two countries must continue “no matter what else is happening in the world or in our relationship … just as the United States and the Soviet Union did, even at the height of the Cold War.”

President Joe Biden has accomplished a lot with his administration, which includes fortifying NATO and bolstering alliances, as well as creating a unified force of antidemocratic regimes.

China has been trying to get the world to believe that it has an alternative to US power. A real attempt to broker peace in Ukraine, even an unsuccessful one, can help promote the image of responsible statesmanship.

The rule of the strongest doesn’t work if you can’t win, which is what led to Russia and China rethinking their commitment.

According to the intelligence of the US, Russia has bought weapons from North Korea which denies it is involved in a war that is beyond the pale.

Beijing’s first visit to the world: a response to china’s warning on the role of the West in the Iran-China diplomatic relations

Iran’s president traveled to China for the first time in 20 years. The two leaders signed a 25-year agreement for cooperation at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The ties between Beijing and Tehran raise alarm among both democrats and republicans in congress who fear that China could help Iran evade sanctions relating to its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, support for terrorism and human rights abuses.

There is an internal contradiction in the goals of the man. It is hard to form an alliance of rule-breaking autocrats and assorted dictators and expect other countries to join you in being a respected global leader.

Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.

On Friday, Wang Wenbin, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, tried to strike a balance between Russia and Europe, but suggested Western allies and especially the U.S. were at fault for the conflict: “NATO should reflect deeply and stop trying to mess up Asia and the rest of the world after messing up Europe.”

CNN asked European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday whether she believed, after hearing Wang’s speech, that China is listening to Europe’s message to not support Russia. She said that it has been seen so far.

The foreign ministry says that the top diplomat from China will go to Russia this month in the first time a Chinese official has visited since the beginning of the war.

The World Stands With Kyiv And The U.S. In What Moment Did Putin and Putin Walk On? Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Wu Explains the War in Ukraine

It was a year later and Kyiv and Ukraine stood the same. He said that the world stood with him, and the Americans stood with him.

“I do think this is a critical moment,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told NPR. “The battlefield, as difficult as it is and as bloody as it is … is something that’s going to play a very major factor in both President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and President [Vladimir] Putin’s calculations as to whether or not to go to the negotiating table … and under what conditions.”

This is something that leads me to a question, who do we document all of the crimes? The head of the center for civil liberties told us. “I’m a human rights lawyer and I document human pain in order to have the Russians brought to justice, because I’m not a historian.”

Speaking to NPR’s Leila Fadel, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said his country is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine and keeping a wary eye on China.

“They have expansionist motivation. They want to continue to expand their sphere of influence. They want to continue to expand their power. “If they are not stopped, then they will march on.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian ally, Wang Yi, during the Munich Security Conference on Saturday: How the United States and Russia have dealt with the “Misleading Threats of the Cold War”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NPR that they were able to avoid conflict between great powers. “For all of its flaws, this system works.” But now it is being challenged.

Natalia believes the family car was attacked by Russian forces during the first few days of the war. Her husband and nephew were killed in a car crash. Vova survived the attack but was hospitalized for months with seven bullets in his body.

The audio for this story was produced by Danny Hajek; edited by Barrie Hardymon and Natalie Winston. Additional editing and production help from Carol Klinger, Denise Couture and Nina Kravinsky. Hanna Palamarenko and Tanya Ustova provided reporting and translation help.

While interviewing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” released on Saturday, the US has made clear to Beijing the consequences of providing weapons to Russia and has been monitoring possible increased support for Russia from China.

The officials would not describe in detail what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.

“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.

What Can Congress Do to Bring an End to the Warfare between Russia and Ukraine? A Congressional Message on the Status of the Ukraine Crisis

The warfare cannot continue to rage on. We need to think about what efforts we can make to bring this warfare to an end,” Wang said at the conference.

That equipment has included items like flak jackets and helmets, multiple sources familiar with US and European intelligence told CNN. But China has stopped short of the more robust military assistance, like lethal weapons systems for use on the battlefield in Ukraine, that Russia has requested because it has not wanted to be seen as a pariah on the world stage, officials said.

A serious problem for us and in our relationship is what we worry about because of the information we have about them considering giving lethal support, and we have made clear to them that that would cause a problem.

Turner, an Ohio Republican, was the one who defended Congress’ support for the country despite a number of his GOP colleagues co-signing a resolution demanding that the US end military and financial aid to the country. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNN last week he opposes the resolution.

McCaul warned against hedging support for Ukraine fearing that it would prolong the conflict, allowing anti-Ukraine dissent to build and potentially playing into Russia’s advantages.

Biden revealed Putin’s plan to make the war appear as if it was a result of a Ukrainian provocation before it began. The NATO alliance had been derided by former President Donald Trump.

Asked by Brown if he believes the US is considering sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, McCaul replied, “I hope so,” and reiterated his concern over a drawn-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine while noting, “I think the momentum is building for this to happen.”

Turner equated the resolution to a letter more than two dozen progressive House Democrats sent the White House last fall, asking it to pursue diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine. The letter was retracted shortly after.

“You have a handful on both sides, both sides, Pamela, who have been cautious or who have said that they don’t support, or they want support to come to an end,” he said from Munich. There are a lot of people in Congress. There are probably 400 that are for continuing this direction and this path.”

The Davos of Defense: Is it a Cold War? Xi Jinping, PM McCaul, Secretary of State, and General Relativity

McCaul also told CNN that the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over US airspace before being shot down off the coast of South Carolina earlier this month contained parts manufactured in the United States and urged the US to restrict the flow of weapons technology to China.

A lot of this is taken from us. But we don’t have to sell them the very technology they can put in their advanced weapons systems to then turn against either Taiwan in the Pacific or eventually, possibly the United States of America. I think there is great bipartisanship on this issue.

McCaul said that the tension between the two countries “is very high right now” and that both Democrats and Republicans are aligned in wanting to confront Chinese threats.

“I think we have a unique opportunity to be bipartisan on this issue of national security against one of the greatest threats to this country, and the world, for that matter,” McCaul said.

No one wants a cold war, but that isn’t the issue. We want China to be a peaceful, prosperous nation with no plans of building up the military or threatening the United States, and certainly not apologizing for sending a spy balloon over us.

Dubbed the Davos of Defense, the Munich Security Conference attracts heads of state, generals, intelligence chiefs and top diplomats from around the world.

Zelenskyy called on Western leaders to act rather than talk as he gave the opening speech at the three-day conference.

The United States of Foreign Policy at the 12th International Conference on Crimes against Humanity (EUP515 Conference on Geopolitics and Science)

This year, the U.S. made its presence at the gathering felt with a record number of delegates, including significant bipartisan and bicameral representation from Congress.

But with delegations attending from every continent, beyond Europe and the members of NATO, broader geopolitical issues were at play, both on the conference stage and on the sidelines.

It is not certain whether a dialogue with President Putin will take place at next year’s conference. The US is preparing to see the leaders of Russia stand trial for crimes against humanity.

Harris said there is a lot of evidence of Russian soldiers raping, torturing, killing and deporting civilians, as well as children who have been cruelly separated from their parents.

She told them not to look the other way and to think of the four-year-old girl who the United Nations reported was sexually assault by a Russian soldier.

The U.S. Secretary of State said in a statement released at the conference: “We reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes.”

Wang insisted that peace in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world is Beijing’s top foreign policy priority, as is respect for the sovereignty of independent nations. Within the same breath, he warned against international interference on the issue of Taiwan. Wang said maintaining peace across Taiwan Strait was important to opposing Taiwanese independence forces.

The U.S. is concerned about China invading Taiwan and its relationship with Moscow. Washington and Beijing’s relationship is fraught and has deteriorated further in the wake of “balloon-gate.”

After much “will they, won’t they”, Blinken and Wang sat down together on the last night of the conference, in the first high-level meeting between the two countries since the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon.

In a statement, the U.S. State Department said that Blinken told Wang that the U.S. is not seeking conflict with China but warned him against Beijing providing any material support to Russia, or helping Moscow evade Western sanctions.

Europe’s leaders committed to investing more in weapons, despite Wang Yi’s call for peace in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this month that Europe and NATO’s production capacity needs to be ramped up if the West is going to meet Ukraine’s needs.

The Chancellor of Germany asked his European partners to follow through on their pledges to deliver battle tanks to Ukraine. He joked that he had to urge others to deliver Leopard tanks quickly toUkraine after they’d put pressure on him to do the same in previous weeks.

Boris Pistorius was the new Defense Minister and pushed for increased military spending in Europe and NATO. He went even further than Scholz in calling on the NATO alliance to commit to spending 2% of GDP on defense. Germany isn’t expected to meet the target of 2% for at least another two years, despite an extra 100 billion for the budget.

Scholz remained tight-lipped about requests from Ukraine to send fighter jets, having publicly said no on several occasions. He said Germany’s support for Kyiv is not relenting and must be taken with a grain of salt.

Kremlin critics criticized Putin’s use of the Russian military operation to attack Ukraine, and why Russia should not intervene in the war

Prominent Kremlin critics — including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of jailed opposition political Alexey Navalny — were pointedly offered seats instead.

The conference is known for promoting dialogue between adversaries, but the chair does not want the conference to be used as a podium for Russian propaganda.

Heusgen – who served as former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s top foreign policy aide – admitted in an interview earlier this week that he left last year’s conference convinced Russia would not invade Ukraine. The invasion began four days later.

A Telegram account managed by Russian army and naval servicemembers, Zapiski michmana Ptichkina, noted ironically that Biden had reached Kyiv before Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Almost a year after the beginning of the Special military operation, we are waiting in the Russian city of [Kyiv] for the president of the Russian Federation, but not for the [President of the] United States,” it said.

Two trips taking place just days before the one year anniversary of the war demonstrate the sharpening of fault lines between the world’s two superpowers.

To make the case that the US is prolonging the war in order to benefit from this crisis, Wang said that China does not add fuel to the fire and that they are against reaping benefits from this.

“Some forces might not want to see peace talks to materialize. They do not care about the life and death of Ukrainians or the harm on Europe. They might have bigger goals than the Ukrainians. Wang said that the warfare must not continue.

He encouraged European officials to think about what role Europe should play in bringing lasting peace to Europe.

Beijing doesn’t blame China: diplomatic pressure on the Russian army during the invasion of Kyiv and implications for the military in the fight against terrorism

Responding to the accusations Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry blasted the US for “shoving responsibility, shifting blame and spreading false information.”

The US side supplies a steady stream of weapons to the battlefield, not the Chinese side. The US side is not qualified to lecture China, and we would never accept the US dictating or even coercing pressure on Sino-Russian relations,” a ministry spokesperson said at a regular news conference.

Who is calling for dialogue and peace? And who is handing out knives and encouraging confrontation? The international community can see clearly,” the spokesperson said.

Beijing had avoided actions that could cause secondary sanctions in the past, which would have dealt a devastating blow to an economy crippled by three years of zero- Covid policy.

Despite its calls for peace talks, Beijing remained interested in helping the Russian economy throughout the invasion.

“Biden, having received security guarantees in advance, finally went to Kyiv,” Medvedev said in a statement on Telegram. There were differences about the outcome of the victory with new weaponry and a group of people who were brave. And here it is important to note that the West already delivers weapons and money to Kyiv quite regularly. NATO countries were able to earn money and steal weapons to sell them to terrorists around the world.

Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Igor Girkin meanwhile suggested that Biden could have visited the frontlines in eastern Ukraine and escaped unharmed.

“Wouldn’t be surprised if the grandfather (he is not good for anything but simple provocations anyway) is brought to Bakhmut as well… AND NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO HIM,” Girkin said.

One of the leaders of the hardline militaryBlogging that provides analysis of the conflict in Russia for large swaths of the population has criticized the soft approach taken by the generals on the battlefield.

Joe Biden’s Unexpected Visit to Ukraine during the First Year of the Invasion of Ukraine: The Challenge for the U.S. Armed Forces

As the world prepares to mark the first anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden made a historic, unannounced visit to the capital of the embattled country.

Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, is known for making belligerent pronouncements in an apparent bid to shore up his nationalist credentials.

The debate over the visit of Biden will be a problem for Putin, who will speak on the invasion in the Federal Assembly on Tuesday.

Russian participants of its “special military operation” will be in attendance, but foreign guests will not be invited, the Kremlin’s spokesman told reporters Monday.

The risky trip on Monday to an active war zone, which was a powerful symbol ofAmerican support, was a shot in the arm to a population that has survived Russia’s devastating attacks on civilian apartment blocks, hospitals, schools and power stations.

“It’s just something unbelievable that at a time like this the President of the United States is coming to Kyiv,” Andrei Ketov, a 48-year-old Ukrainian service member, told CNN.

Biden is going to give a major speech the day after his visit, in order to rally the world to fight autocracy and help defend Ukraine’s independence.

Recall that in the early days of the invasion, Ukraine said it found Russian forces had brought along their dress uniforms apparently expecting a victory parade.

Biden is an elderly man with a stiff head. He has both courage and competence, as demonstrated by the air raid sirens sounded over Kyiv while Biden was there.

A joyous Zelensky said Biden’s visit “brings us closer to victory,” adding it will “have repercussions on the battlefield in liberating our territories.”

Biden went to Ukraine, and some GOP members criticized him. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene called the trip “incredibly insulting,” a sign of an “America Last” policy. And Rep. Scott Perry — at the center of a legal dispute with the Justice Department over his cell phone in the special counsel’s January 6 probe — described as “breathtaking” that Biden would help Ukraine defend its borders and not do the same for America.

Russian START note: Is it really a theater of the absurd? Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov tells RIA Novosti

Russia’s START note: Russia handed an official note to the United States on Tuesday on the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian state media RIA Novosti Wednesday. According to the note, Russia will observe the treaty’s central provisions. It comes after Putin signed a law suspending Russia’s participation in START, imperiling the last remaining pact that regulates the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. The US is still in compliance with the treaty but Ned Price, a State Department spokesman suggested that might change depending on how Russia chooses to proceed.

Even before Mr. Putin dismissed the implementation of the treaty’s required inspections as “nonsense,” it was already in deep trouble. The Russians were out of compliance with their treaty obligations according to the State Department.

But he made clear that the United States would not be inspecting Russian nuclear sites, a central element of verifying compliance with the treaty. He sounded like a leader who was done with arms control at a time of increased confrontation with the United States and NATO.

If that attitude holds, whoever is sitting in the Oval Office when the treaty expires in a bit more than 1,000 days may face a new world that will look, at first glance, similar to the one of a half-century ago, when arms races were in full swing and nations could field as many nuclear weapons as they wanted.

He said he wasn’t about to allow inspectors to survey those facilities, because they could pass their findings on to the Ukrainians to launch further attacks. “This is a theater of the absurd,” he said. “We know that the West is directly involved in the attempts of the Kyiv regime to strike at the bases.”

None of this changes the status quo very much. Nuclear inspectors on both sides of the border were unable to get into Russia or the US during the Covid pandemic. But over the past year, as travel restrictions lifted, Russians came up with reasons to deny inspections — and charged, as Mr. Putin did again on Tuesday, that the United States was not living up to its inspection requirements either.

There are many reasons. There is very little communication between the two countries. The talks about strategic stability that Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin had were suspended after the invasion of Ukraine.

Nuclear experts don’t like another treaty between Moscow and Washington. The Pentagon reckons that China will be able to deploy 1500 weapons within the next 12 years, matching the weapons it already has. The arms control treaty wouldn’t work if it left out one of the three major powers. If there were any, China has shown no interest in joining negotiations.

Still, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Tuesday, after Mr. Putin spoke, that he would be willing to negotiate a new treaty that was “clearly in the security interests of our country” and, he added, “in the security interests of Russia.”

Putin acknowledged Russia’s significant losses in the war and called on those present to stand for a moment of silence in their memory. The Russian leader also promised a range of social support packages for families of the fallen.

The U.S. and Russia’s Cold War: The Status of the New Start Agreement after Ukraine’s Crimea annexation

Signed in 2010, New Start came into force in 2011, and was extended till 2026. It caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that Russia and the U.S. can deploy. The two countries have the vast majority of all deployable warheads.

Putin also said he’d instructed his military and civilian atomic energy agency to be prepared to test additional nuclear weapons – should the U.S. carry out new tests first.

Putin presented a now-familiar list of grievances against the West, including what he described as its moral and spiritual collapse whose values, he said, threaten the children of Russia. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church sat inside the hall.

“Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not just a European matter, but a challenge to the rules and principles of the entire international community,” Kishida said at the time.

Russian lawmakers will gather for a special session of parliament Wednesday, when Putin will also address a crowd in Moscow.

The document doesn’t acknowledge Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty because it claims the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” of all countries must be upheld.

Putin then assembled his National Security Council for a televised session to discuss the independence issue — now famous for the image of the Russian leader holding court across a vast hallway to consult with, in theory, his closest advisors.

Just as with Biden’s decision to provide a Patriot missile defense system, it has often taken a dramatic escalation or shift in battlefield conditions for the US to do more.

Not only would the US follow through on sweeping sanctions, Biden also detailed his intent to provide more security assistance than any provided on a consistent basis to Ukraine since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Biden made the pledge “crystal clear,” a senior administration official recalled.

There are newer and more sophisticated weapons that the US has denied previously, such as longer-range missile systems and fighter jets. Zelensky was hoping to convince Biden to change his mind after the surprise visit to Kyiv.

Ukrain’s Air Defense Mission to the Second Year of Operation: Joint Briefings with the Ukranian Deputy Chief of Staff, Lloyd Austin and State Secretary Jake Sullivan

In addition to lower-level military contacts, National security adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley all speak directly with their counterparts multiple times a week.

Sullivan and Milley hold regular joint calls with the Zelensky adviser and the commander-in-chief of Ukranian armed forces. These calls give Sullivan and Milley a chance to get the latest reports from the battlefield and assess the Ukrainian military’s needs.

Ukrainian requests through these various channels are then funneled over to the Pentagon, where officials conduct rigorous analysis of the requests to assess the impact they will have on the battlefield, how quickly the Ukrainians can train and integrate the new weapons and the impact of transferring the weapons on US military readiness.

The process has gotten more organized, and with Biden approving a security package in the last days of January, there is still urgent need.

The senior State Department official said they had never seen the bureaucracy work as fast as it is.

A senior administration official said that the president was “outraged” about this and pushed his teams to find ways to help the Pentagon fight the problem.

Biden was also concerned that Russia’s targeted campaign on civilian infrastructure would leave Ukraine’s air defenses spread too thin, forcing Kyiv to make an impossible choice: deploy its limited air defense assets to protect its frontline troops, or its cities.

At the White House, where Sullivan hosts a daily meeting of key National Security Council officials to coordinate the government-wide effort to support Ukraine, that launched an effort to get US allies to also get Ukraine more air defense capabilities.

“We really went around the world and found for them, not only additional systems that other countries had and persuade them to transfer them, but parts,” the official said, allowing Ukraine to get non-operational S-300 systems back online.

The decision by the US to give howitzers in April and multiple rocket launchers in June has been matched or complemented by allies.

“At every stage of conflict, we have adapted to make sure the Ukrainians had what they needed to be successful – and they have,” a senior administration official said. “We have adapted, they have adapted.”

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the West in its support for Ukraine as the war enters its second year is sheer logistics, and maintaining the pace of weapons and ammunition supplies to Ukraine as stockpiles dwindle.

“A lot of the ammunition stocks have been depleted in Europe,” Estonian Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm told CNN, and Europe’s current industrial capacities are limited in terms of how fast the ammo can be manufactured.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/politics/ukraine-us-military-aid-reservations-one-year/index.html

Uk Warped with Artillery: The First Training Course in a Manipulation Warfare Regime for the Ukranian Army

The Ukrainian military has instinctively wanted to fight an artillery war, US officials say, which involves firing a crushing amount of heavy artillery at the enemy’s defensive lines.

US officials have urged Ukraine to shift to a maneuver warfare style of fighting used by the US and other modern militaries – that is, fighting that uses rapid, unanticipated movements and a combination of different combat arms rather than relying too heavily on artillery.

The first group of 635 Ukrainians training on this style of fighting wrapped up their course at Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany last week, according to Pentagon press secretary Brig. The leader of the army is Gen. Pat Ryder. A group of 700 soldiers started the five-week training course.

John Kirby, a National Security Council official, said last week that Zelensky asked the US to provide input on a 10-point peace plan.

The plan calls for the restoration of the state borders with Russia and the withdrawal of Russian troops, as well as the prosecution of Russian war crimes.

“I think strategically the allies are getting to the realization that this is going to be a longer war,” said Salm, the Estonian defense secretary. In order to manage this strategy, you need to have an end goal.

The senior State Department official said that the US is aware of this position. An end goal must be something that the leader of Ukraine can sell to the public, the official said. “But I think he’s committed to get there.”

The West was in a strong position to back up its support for Ukrainian Resistance after Biden made a visit to Kyiv on Monday and a speech in Warsaw the next day.

“The China-Russia relationship has stood the test of the drastic changes in the world landscape and become mature and tenacious,” Wang told Putin, according to a Chinese foreign ministry read-out from the meeting.

China’s Foreign Policy Under Siege: A Cold War Between the United States and the West, Implications for the American-Russian Relationship

The foreign policy picture is not just a problem for American diplomats. With the lack of US and Western weapons stocks in Ukraine, questions are raised about military capacity and whether current spending is sufficient. Biden is accused of snubbing voters facing economic and other problems, even as he tries to position Democrats as the protectors of working Americans as the campaign for the 2024 election begins.

President Putin’s lust for power and land will fail, and the Ukrainian people’s love for their country will prevail, said Biden.

Putin seems to be living in an alternate reality. Biden insisted that he was talking to the people of Russia rather than claiming that he was talking to Western imperialism. The United States and the nations of Europe do not seek to control or destroy Russia. Putin said that the west was not planning to attack Russia.

Biden’s trip also demonstrated that the estrangement between the US and Russia – a factor that will shape global politics for years – is almost complete.

Given that its economy is struggling, and its conventional forces are under extreme pressure, Russia also lacks resources to ignite a new nuclear arms race with Washington. The collapse of one of the last building blocks of a thaw between Russia and the US proves that there is almost no communication between the rivals.

There will be no return to normal relations between the United States and Russia after the Biden administration accuses Russia of crimes against humanity.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that a step would cross a US red line but she didn’t say what consequences would come from it.

A long-dragging conflict could also drive divides between the US and Europe – further playing into China’s foreign policy goals. And it could further incite political dissent in Washington, weakening Biden’s capacity to fulfill his foreign policy goals on the global stage.

Mr. Wang arrived in Moscow this week after a tour of Western Europe, where he sought to persuade European leaders that Beijing is not supporting Mr. Putin’s war and wants to encourage a peaceful exit from the fighting.

The footage from the meeting has been shared by the Chinese news media. He said that Chinese-Russian relations have stood the test of international turbulence, as well as Mount Tai, a famed Chinese mountain.

In his opening remarks, Mr. Putin highlighted the economic aspect of the China-Russia relationship, predicting that the countries’ annual trade volume could reach $200 billion as early as this year, compared with $185 billion last year.

“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. “And above all, we are talking, of course, about economic issues.”

Beijing’s approach to resolving the Ukraine crisis: The plan of the United States and its epoch of cooperation in the Cold War

The Biden administration is expecting China to put a peace plan on the table Friday with their ideas for resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine, a US State Department official said Thursday.

Nuland did not say how the Chinese would present the plan. There is a meeting of the UN Security Council tomorrow where China could make a presentation. The Secretary of State will be at the meeting.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi had previewed the forthcoming plan during remarks at the Munich Security Conference last weekend. Russian Foreign Minister Sergeyev said he didn’t discuss the reported plan with China’s top diplomat.

China is trying to have both ways. Ned Price of the State Department said that China is trying to disguise its relationship with Russia in order to keep the public in the dark.

On Friday, Beijing released a 12-point position on the “political solution” to the crisis in a document calling for peace talks to end the year-long war. Its release, however, was criticized by Western leaders, who accused China of already having taken Russia’s side.

In an interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua released ahead of his visit, Lukashenko is cited as saying the position paper was a testimony to China’s peaceful foreign policy and a new and original step that would have a far-reaching impact.

Conflict and war do not benefit anyone. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the paper said.

The document has a lot of language that appears to be directed at the West. The paper criticized the US and said that they should abandon the Cold War mentality.

It criticizes the economic sanctions that the US and other countries have imposed on Russia. “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems,” it said. “Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis.”

Jake Sullivan, a US National Security advisor, said that the war could be over tomorrow if Russia stops attacking Ukraine.

In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.

What should we do to protect the Ukrainian people from armed attacks? A pedagogical lecture by Wang and Chong, Singapore, February 7-8, 2001

Wang said the changes need to be identified and responded to more actively to further strengthen the partnership.

“There isn’t much leverage involved. The document lays out broad, general principles, but no real reason why you might want to cease and desist, right? There is no big appeal that you will get. There’s no big cost if you don’t comply,” said Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at National University of Singapore.

He does not want to shy away from calling out his allies if he feels they could do more to help the Ukraine, even if he doesn’t want to mention their names.

Zelensky initially ignored the question about the reports of Beijing possibly giving Moscow lethal weapons. When it was raised a second time, he said he wanted to make sure that China did not arm Russia.

Mr. Zelensky had the question translated a second time and then engaged the reporter directly, telling her that it was not about geography or geopolitics but basic principles.

The Ukraine War, the Darkest Moment of the Ukrainian War for Israel, and the Good, the Evil: Questions from China to the U.S.

Does China think innocents should not be killed? That a nuclear power plant should not be occupied? That respect for the sovereign rights of a nation means an invader should withdraw?

Before making a switch to English to stress his openness to direct talks with China he said, “I am already starting public diplomatic relations here.” We need to speak between us because of the common issues.

The idea that Moscow will not find a way to quickly and robustly rebuild its military is what made Mr. Zelensky so confident in the victory of Ukraine.

Iran is already providing attack drones to Russia, and the West has warned the Moscow is also seeking to acquire ballistic missiles. This is where Mr. Zelensky was asked about Israel. He was told that Israel andUkraine share a common enemy, so why are they not stronger allies?

He said that he understood Israel’s long and complex history with Russia but said that he had wished for Israel to take a firmer stance against it since the start of the war.

There were several hard questions about possible internal disputes in his government. A journalist from Azerbaijan wanted to take a photo with the Ukrainian leader for his son. Mr. Zelensky agreed.

The Ukrainian leader said the darkest moment of the war for him personally was when he saw the atrocities committed by Russian soldiers for the first time, in Bucha. He said it was horrible.

Even if that answer is determined on the battlefield, questions about how and when Ukraine could win the war were the most frequent over two and a half hours.

Also Tuesday, U.S. lawmakers will attend hearings about the Ukraine war in both the Senate Armed Services Committee and the House subcommittee on defense appropriations.

Putin meets Belarus in a “China-Belarus all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” following the recent election of Alexander Lukashenko

Some Russians defied the Kremlin’s rule by protesting against the war in several cities, with one independent Russian outlet reporting more than 50 people were detained at different demonstrations where they picketed, laid flowers and wrote messages.

China is preparing to welcome a key autocratic ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin for a state visit, amid warnings from United States officials that Beijing may be considering aiding Moscow in its ongoing assault on Ukraine.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday that Alexander Lukashenko will hold talks with officials in Beijing on Tuesday and Thursday.

Russian President Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao attended a summit of the SCO in Uzbekistan in September, during which they agreed to strengthen their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership”.

The conflict in Ukraine will be at the center of talks between China andBelarus this week.

The US and its allies have imposed a wide range of sanctions on the nation due to Lukashenko allowing Russian troops to invade Ukranian.

Belarus was an early joiner of China’s Belt and Road development initiative, launched a decade ago, and trade between the two last year increased 33% year-on-year to surpass $5 billion, according to Xinhua.

In a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his counterpart in Belarus, Sergei Aleinik, China promised to oppose external interference in the country’s internal affairs and to outlaw illegal sanctions against it.

According to Chinese state media, Lukashenko was welcomed with a 21-gun salute in Tiananmen Square, where he reviewed honor guard troops with Xi, who later declared the China-Belarus friendship “unbreakable.”

The United States has been dismissive of China’s policy paper, although the leaders of Ukraine and France responded more positively and said they wanted to discuss it with Xi.

The “China-Belarus All-Weather Strategic Partnership” has been further developed, and the presidents of China and Belarus signed a joint statement.

Lukashenko has been president of the former Soviet republic since 1994, and won a sixth term in 2020 in a election widely viewed as fraudulent. The election resulted in Lukashenko retaining power, which led to months of street protests.

Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, Ukraine, and a former U.S. Marine is still no longer a mercenary group

Ukrainian forces are mostly holding their positions around the fiercely contested eastern city of Bakhmut, but at a high price, according to one commander.

On the ground. There were Russian attacks on the central Poltava region as well as in the eastern Luhansk region. Several civilians were wounded in the northern region of Kharkiv, the General Staff said. It also reported heavy shelling along the frontline that runs north-south on the Luhansk-Kharkiv border.

Wagner update: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said there are no Serbian nationals among the mercenary group’s fighters in Ukraine, after “the last one” left the area two months ago. The comments come after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić accused Wagner of trying to recruit Serbs to fight in Ukraine.

Blinken said he reiterated the call for Moscow to accept Washington’s proposal to release Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine imprisoned in Russia since 2018.

A Russian court convicted Whelan of espionage charges in 2020 and sentenced him to 16 years in prison. Russian authorities subjected him to a secret trial, sentenced him to 16 years in a Russian penal colony, based on information from secret evidence.

Xi, Putin, Putin and the Indian Prime Minister: A New Look at a Cold Cold War in the G-20 External Ministers’ Meeting

“We’re determined to bring Paul and any other American citizen who’s been wrongly imprisoned around the world home,” he said on Thursday. We won’t rest until we do.”

India, which holds the rotating chair of the G-20 this year, hoped the war in Ukraine would not dominate proceedings at the meetings of the group’s foreign ministers.

Climate change, food security, inflation and debt relief are some of the issues more pertinent to the Global South that the host country wants the event to focus on.

The president of the European Commission will be in the White House on Friday for talks with the president.

The top U.S. and Russian government diplomats met for the first time since the invasion began, in a brief walk and talk alongside meetings of the Group of 20 nations’ foreign ministers in India.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, one of Europe’s staunchest supporters of Ukraine, is set to remain in her post after her center-right party overwhelmingly won Sunday’s election.

In some Western capitals, the visit of two autocrats who have described themselves as friends will look very different because of the conflagration in Europe.

And it comes just days after China scored a major diplomatic victory by brokering a surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, helping the two archrivals restore diplomatic ties.

Arrest warrants were issued for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova by the International Criminal Court. The court claims that the two are responsible for the war crime of deportation and transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia.

The top Chinese leader will be dining with a war criminal whom he has called a “best friend” and who has been blamed for causing the deaths of tens of thousands of people around the world.

At a time when Russia is running out of supplies and the economy is going bad, the Chinese leader showing up in Moscow has been seen as a ringing endorsement for Putin.

Xi will be walking a diplomatic tightrope in Moscow, as he seeks to present China as a neutral peace broker while deepening ties with Russia, without further antagonizing Europe – a key trade partner Beijing has sought to woo away from the US.

In a signed article published in Russian state media Monday, Xi framed his upcoming visit as “a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace,” vowing to open “a new chapter” of bilateral relations.

The People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, published a letter the same day from Putin filled with praise for “Comrade Xi” and his view that Western powers will one day come for China.

The timing of the meeting allows the Chinese leader to take advantage of his recent win in the Middle East to shape the trajectory of the war inUkraine, he said.

It is possible that there may be pressure on Putin to accept a different kind of arrangement, one that would allow him to extract his troops from the meatgrinder and kill tens of thousands of Russians.

Putin and the Cold War: The Cold War Between the United States, China and the United Kingdom in the Light of a Cold War, and the Russian War on the Balkans

Days before the visit, the Russian defense military said Russia, China and Iran have completed three-way naval exercises in the Arabian Sea – sending a powerful message of defiance to the Western alliance.

But the plan only generated a lukewarm reception from Moscow and Kyiv, and was widely criticized by Western officials for lacking substance – and failing even to recognize Russia’s violation of Ukraine sovereignty.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said any framework offered by Beijing would be “one sided and reflect only the Russian perspective.”

He said that Beijing can not fundamentally change the situation since both Moscow and Kyiv are not ready to make the concessions needed to end the war.

The Biden administration is watching the trip of China’s president to Moscow closely as they worry about a call for a ceasefire at this time.

“These are two countries that don’t have a heck of a whole lot of trust between one another, but they find common cause in pushing back on the West, in pushing back on American leadership,” he said.

China’s leader is in Moscow on Monday to show his support for Russia and to look into possible steps towards peace in Ukraine.

Paul Haenle, a China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former director on the National Security Council, said that he didn’t have to achieve much to accomplish this goal.

Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford, says China may hope the Moscow trip will help persuade some in Europe “to take a more America-skeptic position on questions of security and economic cooperation.”

The mood is set. The framework has now been set. The idea of China potentially as the peacemaker that goes where other countries can’t has been set. But the actual solution still looks in some ways much, much more vague, much more fluid,” said Mitter.

The Chinese are not actually aiming to be the problem solutioners, according to a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.

The Carnegie Endowment’s Haenle said that Beijing was the most efficient in bringing negotiators to the table during the Six Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program. He says Chinese officials never pressed anyone to move the ball down the field.

“We always had the sense that the United States, South Korea, Japan, we were really aggressively trying to find a way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, where the Chinese were really looking for a process to manage the North Korean nuclear issue,” he said.

Vladimir Putin meets Ukraine: A critical look at what we’ve been waiting for in the next few years – and what we can do about it

“Whether they’ll play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict, I think, is probably something that we will not see here in the near term,” Haenle said.

The International Monetary Fund made a rule change that could allow a reported multibillion dollar loan to Ukraine, which the war-battered country has been seeking.

Putin also visited Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of the peninsula’s annexation from Ukraine, which most governments condemned and consider illegal.

A Russian warplane collided with a U.S. drone, forcing the American uncrewed aircraft to crash into the Black Sea, the U.S. military said. Two Russian fighter jets clipped the propeller of a drone that was flying above them, according to U.S. officials. The pilots of the two fighter jets were awarded by the government.

Poland and Slovakia will send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, the first NATO countries to answer Kyiv’s call for allies to share their warplanes to fight Russian forces. The U.S. has turned down the Ukrainian request for F-16s.

Leaders of Belarus and Iran hailed their countries’ ties in meetings in Tehran. Russia has gotten attack drones from Iran and China, which has been aided by a ally in the opposite direction of Russia, Belarus.

Russia now has the lowest approval rating in America since Soviet times, with just 9% of the U.S. public surveyed saying they have a favorable view of the country, according to Gallup.

Zelensky, Putin, and the End of the Cold War: What Do We Really Want to Say About the U.S. and Where Do We Stand?

Washington seems happy by the news given the potential outcome of the meeting and the other important outcomes that could follow.

Jake Sullivan said the US has been trying to convince the Chinese president to speak with Zelensky. Zelensky wants to speak to Xi, one of the few major global players who has not had a chance to have a conversation since the war began.

Xi and Putin – the autocracy brothers – have much in common, from their wish to see the United States and the western alliance weakened, to their disdain for democracy and their autocratic practices at home. It would be a pity if the war came to an end without a victory for Russia.

He would be considered a peacemaker if he could convince Putin to accept security guarantees, and if he could persuadeUkraine to not join NATO. A legitimate referendum in the regions without Russian troops on the ground could factor into a deal, as well as other elements.

Optimism about a peace deal, however, is in short supply. The two sides are far apart. Western support for Ukraine is something Putin thinks can be defeated. The latest statement on Ukraine by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis supports that view if the likely presidential contender wins in 2024, and the war has not yet ended. Both DeSantis and Trump seem inclined to stand back and let Putin take pieces of Ukraine.

The Japanese leader’s expected arrival in Ukraine follows Xi’s controversial state visit to Russia, his first since the invasion began, with the first day of talks starting on Monday.

Last year, Kishida warned thatUkraine may be East Asia tomorrow, because of Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor.

In the face of China’s growing assertiveness and global reach, Japan and the United States have moved closer in recent years, especially on regional security and intelligence cooperation.

Last month, on the eve of the invasion’s one-year anniversary, Japan pledged $5.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, quadrupling Tokyo’s previous contributions.

According to the report, the new $75 billion investment plan was announced in New Delhi by Kishida in order to counteract China’s influence in Southeast Asia.

Russia is planning a nuclear storage facility in the Zaporizhzhia site of Europe and Finland’s request to join NATO

India is the only other Asian nation that has taken a similar stance, refusing to formally condemn Russia’s invasion and continuing to purchase of Russian oil.

Moscow will complete the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by the beginning of July, Putin told state broadcaster Russia 1.

The leader of Russia said that the Iskander short-range missile system had already been transferred to the country of Belarus.

During the interview, Putin said Russia helped Belarus convert 10 aircraft to make them capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. Russia will start training pilots to fly the re-configured planes early next month, he added.

In October, Joe Biden told Jake Tapper that it wouldn’t be right for him to discuss what the US would or wouldn’t do in response to a nuclear use by Russia.

Hungary’s parliament just approved Finland’s application to join NATO. Now that leaves Turkey, whose president said it would start the process to ratify Finland’s bid. But both NATO members have left Sweden’s application still pending.

The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, plans to visit the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine to assess the security situation at Europe’s largest nuclear station.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Hossein Amirabdollahian in Bakhmut, Ukraine — a city Russia is trying to take over

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov holds talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Wednesday. The foreign minister of another of Russia’s friends was in talks with him on Thursday.

The situation in Bakhmut could be becoming stabilized, Ukrainian army chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny said on the Telegram social app, speaking about a city Russia has fought to take control of for months as it tries to capture the whole of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.