Larry Hogan is not interested in the Republican nomination for president
The Momentum of Donald Trump in the House: Running for the Post-French Reionization Electoral Campaign in 2024
After seeing its hopes for controlling the Senate dashed, the Republican Party is facing a fight for the majority in the House.
The control of the House is still up for grabs. The senatorial election in Georgia won’t decide the majority, but it will decide the outcome of the runoff election on December 6.
Despite urgings from some segments of the party, there doesn’t appear to be any changing Trump’s plan. He has been itching to get into the race and, in his view, he’s waited long enough. (Long enough being, in this example, one week after the midterm election.)
The Republicans will be catapulted directly into the 2024 race, with the former president demanding endorsements and fealty from elected officials who are still in the midst of figuring out what happened last week.
The Point: Trump is about Trump. He is the leader of the Republican Party, yes, but he simply does not prioritize the good of the party over his own good.
There are some potential Republican presidential candidates that have been noticeably absent. But former President Donald Trump will speak at the conference Saturday, and he comes in on a wave of momentum in the polls.
Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%.
Most of the candidates in Trump’s position went on to win their primary. Take a look at the candidates who have averaged at least 34% in past national primary polls in the first half of the year prior to the primary.
Since 1972, about 75% of these candidates have gone on to win the nomination when they faced at least one major challenger. The candidates who have polling between 25% and 50% at this point have won the majority of the time.
It would be easy to dismiss TRUMP’s numbers because of high namerecognition, but history suggests something different. VP George H. W. Bush, Majority Leader Bob Dole, and President Gerald Ford are some of the eventual nominees from this group.
The candidates have been unsuccessful in this position. Those polling between 20% and 35% have gone on to win their party nods about 40% of the time since 1972.
Trump was especially struggling following Republicans’ underwhelming performance in last fall’s midterm elections. His once 40-point polling lead over DeSantis declined to 10 points, on average, over the latter half of November through December. Trump’s GOP share went from 50% to 40%.
The reason was obvious: Much of the blame was laid at Trump’s feet. Many candidates he supported, including those who backed the falsehood that the 2020 election was illegitimate, lost winnable races.
By campaigning, Trump can make people remember what they liked about him in the first place. He can put the memories of a bad 2022 election behind him. The Republicans think he’s their best chance to win in the long term, according to surveys.
DeSantis has also had to deal with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley declaring her bid for the presidency. The twice-elected South Carolina governor is polling a little better than she previously was (though still below 10%), but that only further divides the non-Trump vote.
The End of the Republican Party: How We Are, What We Can Do to Make Sense Of Its Own Progress, and How We Can Move On
I am thankful to everyone who has encouraged me to run for president. I don’t want my family to have to go through an exhausting campaign just for the experience after eight years of service to the people of Maryland.
I would never run for president to sell books or position myself for a cabinet role. I believe that I should care more about ensuring a future for the Republican Party than I do about my own future in the party. And that is why I will not be seeking the Republican nomination for president.
Since Donald Trump won the nomination in 2016, I have fought to make clear that our party cannot be successful if we put personality before principle, if our elected officials are afraid to say publicly what they freely admit behind closed doors, and if we can’t learn from our mistakes because of the political cost of admitting facts to be true. The party did not even bother to pass a platform in 2020. Republicans have been denied a real debate on their party’s stance on more than loyalty to Mr. Trump. A cult of personality can’t be a substitute for a party of principle.
The tides are finally turning, I believe. Republican voters are tired of the drama and interested in new leadership. I am concerned about the next election and optimistic about the future of the Republican Party. We cannot afford to have Mr. Trump as our nominee and suffer defeat for the fourth consecutive election cycle. We have to move on from Mr. Trump so that we can once again be a successful party. There are competent Republican leaders who could take the reins and lead. But the stakes are too high for me to risk being part of another multicar pileup that could potentially help Mr. Trump recapture the nomination.
