The First Three Months Before the Bell: What Happens When the Fed Starts Hitting Rates and What Does It Tell Us About the Economy?
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Markets went down on Thursday morning after it was revealed that the Fed would keep hiking interest rates. Then, something strange happened.
Stocks staged a massive comeback. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,500 points from peak to trough and the S&P 500 posted its widest trading range since March 2020, ending the day up more than 2%.
What is happening? In September, the consumer price index rose 0.4%, twice the estimate from analysts. Inflation was up 8% on an annual basis.
He noted that the Fed’s tightening could push the economy into a recession in five years. “However, most economic indicators continue to show signs of resilience. Additionally, this week’s Consumer Price Index data showed continued moderation in the price growth trajectory.”
What causes the divergence between markets and inflation data? Investors could be betting that the stronger-than-expected inflation report means price increases are near their peak. The rollercoaster market illustrates how investors are desperately grasping for clues about what the Fed will do next.
Predictions for the Growth of Household Wealth in the Next Five-Year Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: An Analysis from Allianz
A new report by a financial services company said household wealth was on track for its first reduction since the financial crisis in 2008.
Global assets are set to decline by more than 2% in 2022, Allianz reports. That means households, on average, will lose about a tenth of their wealth this year.
There is a report that depicts a bleak picture. The 2008 financial crisis was marked by a quick rebound but the current outlook shows stagnant growth in the future. The average growth of financial assets is expected to be around 4.6% until 2025, compared with 10.4% over the last three years.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has obstructed the potential for a post-pandemic economic recovery, and increased food and energy scarcity. The world’s central banks are raising borrowing costs because of inflation. Stock markets are likely to end the year in the red– 2021 “might have been the last year of the old ‘new normal’, with low interest rates and bullish stock markets,” wrote Allianz researchers.
Household debt has been on the rise around the world. The higher cost of living and rising interest rates present a risk to the household balance sheets.
The changes are atonic in nature and will take a long time to recover from. The US retail sales for September will be released today, as will the earnings reports from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley.
Multi-Year Mortgage Rates Revived Strongly in the Fourth Quarter and Beyond: Inflation, Bankruptcy, and Housing Demand
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.92% in the week ending October 13, up from 6.66% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the highest average rate since April 2002.
Mortgage rates climbed higher for the second consecutive week, following four weeks of declines. Inflation is running hotter, making rates more volatile, with the expectation that they will move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said that there was a tale of two economies in the data. “Strong job and wage growth are keeping consumers’ balance sheets positive, while lingering inflation, recession fears and housing affordability are driving housing demand down precipitously.”
Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.
“An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. Home prices will not go up in most parts of the country with a single change in the national median home price.
The Case for a Rental Revolution: An Overview of the US Housing Market After the Walls Shutdown and the First Year Stock Market Closure
The new option will feature many of the things found in the current plan, but it will also have an average of four to five minutes of commercials per hour. Those ads will run for 15 or 30 seconds and will play before and during TV series and movies.
Following that news, the stock tumbled, and the company lost billions in market cap. Hundreds of employees were laid off, and doubts ran rampant about the platform’s future, raising questions about the viability of the entire streaming marketplace.
(JPM), Wells Fargo (WFM), Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report third quarter earnings before the bell.
Fortunately, demand and supply fundamentals could limit the downside for US home prices. Millennials, the largest generational cohort since the baby boomers, have gotten older and are looking to buy their first homes. Unfortunately for them, there aren’t enough to go around. High prices even if they are starting to fall will be sticky, even though they will still be doing so. Demand from the baby boomer generation will likely keep prices from entering freefall, like they did in 2008. This decline is not likely to spark a new financial crisis.
To what extent can the affordable housing crisis — and incipient hopes for and fears of a “rent revolution” — really be blamed on corporate speculators? Here’s a look at the debate.
“It was different in 2008, 2009 because that drop in prices was because of a push from sellers,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Because of foreclosures and short sales there were a lot of extremely motivated sellers who were willing to take a loss on their homes.”
And Boise, Idaho, where prices surged nearly 60% during the pandemic, is already seeing annual declines, with prices falling 3.9% year over year in September, according to Zillow.
The amount of mortgage originations is projected to decline to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from their current total of 2.26 trillion. The forecast calls for purchase mortgages to drop by 3% next year, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24%.
MBA’s economists also said they expect the US to enter into a recession in the first part of next year that will be driven by tighter financial conditions, reduced business investment and slower growth globally. It is predicted that the unemployment rate will go up to 5.5% by the end of next year.
First-Time Home Buyers’ Choice in the 21st Century: Evidence from the Real Estate Market, Mortgage Rates, and Child Care
The lack of affordability is a factor in holding first-time home buyers back from homeownership. They do not have the same equity as repeat buyers who can use a down payment or buy in cash. They have to save for living expenses as well as student debt and other expenses, this year was facing rising home prices while mortgage rates are climbing, and they were also facing increasing costs for child care.
According to Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis, the national mortgage delinquency rate decreased to its lowest point in the second quarter of 2022, but will likely increase in the near future due to the rising unemployment and the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian.
“Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”
The economy will add jobs throughout this year and next, and the 30-year fixed mortgage is expected to go down to an average of 6.1% by the end of the decade.
The age of a first-time homebuyer also rose, with the typical age reaching 36 years old, up from 33 last year. The typical repeat buyer’s age also climbed, reaching 59 years old, up from 56. Both are all-time highs.
The median household income for first time buyers dipped to $71,000 in the last year, down from 86,500 in the previous year. The median income of repeat buyers fell from $112,500 the previous year to $96,000.
This will add to the racial homeownership gap, which shows that 70% of White Americans are homeowners while only 45% of Black Americans own a home.
Lautz said that prior research has shown that would-be Black homebuyers have lower incomes, high debt and less likelihood of family support than other groups. The data shows that Black renters pay a larger share of their income to their landlord.
How Many Years Has It Taken to Buy a New Home? The Distance Between Homes and Their New Constructions in the 1990-2019 Real Estate Market
Homebuyers were not as interested in buying in the area they currently live because of the affordability crunch. The median distance between a buyer’s current home and their newly purchased home was typically 15 miles between 2018 and 2021. During the year ending in June, the average distance was 50 miles.
A home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms was built in 1986, and was the largest home that someone has purchased, the report found. That is a smaller and older home than in previous years.
“It feels like it’s never our time,” said Ms. Elmer, 28, who works in private aviation, and had to delay her 2020 wedding because of the pandemic. “I’m stuck at the starting line and other people have been able to progress. It is hard to look to the future when you know we will get there one day.
The more years a person spends renting, the fewer years they have to build equity in a home and eventually pass that equity along to the next generation. A renter is also forever at the mercy of the mercurial rental market, with little control over what their costs will be from one year to the next.
The 2008 Mortgage Crisis: The Impact of New Regulations and Regulation Policies on Real Estate Markets in the United States, as noted by Erik Lundh
The Conference Board employs a principal economist namedErik Lundh. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion at CNN.
Builders overbuild in the early 2000’s due to years of rampant demand, flooding the country with a home surplus. As a result, following the Great Recession, it took years for demand to work through the vast housing stock that had been amassed. Chronic underbuilding caused by this crushed the homebuilding industry.
Additionally, in the years that followed the 2008 financial crisis, new regulations were introduced. Banks are now required to be better capitalized; lending standards are much more rigorous, leading to higher-quality loans; most mortgages are fixed-rate; and financial derivatives, such as asset-backed securities, are better regulated. This is very important to the financial system from a housing downturn.
More buyers looked at properties and made offers in January after the mortgage rates fell. Consumer confidence has been boosted by inflation easing. Pending home sales improved in December and homebuilder confidence ticked up in January.
Additionally, Americans have more equity in their homes than they did leading up to the last financial crisis. For US mortgages, loan-to-value ratios, which measure the amount of mortgage compared to value of home, have fallen to just 42%, a 12-year low. This creates more of a “cushion” for prices to decline before home values fall below the loans that underpin them. Thus, if a home is sold at a loss, it’ll likely hit homeowners before it hits the banks.
Houses were “flying out the door,” said Grant Sykes, a manager at real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson. The agents were gobsmacked at the prices being achieved, he told CNN Business.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand says that the average time to sell a property in New Zealand has increased by 10 days. Sales have plunged nearly 35% and median house prices are down 7.5% over the past year.
That was in May 2021, when sales attracted thousands of bidders who drove prices ever higher. Since then, Barfoot & Thompson’s clearance rate at auction has plummeted, according to Sykes, prolonging sales times and sending prices lower.
The Rise and Fall of Real Estate Markets: How the Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates Drive Prices to Frozen Low-Year-Once
Rising interest rates are driving the dramatic change. Rates are not seen in more than a decade due to the war against inflation by central banks.
How low prices go is one key factor. Unemployment. Forced sales and foreclosures may occur if there is an increase in joblessness.
If the correction in prices is mild, it could have significant consequences because housing transactions in turn increase activity in other areas of the economy.
The data lags likely mean that most markets are now seeing falling prices. We are in the early period of a clear downturn, and it is difficult to say how long it will last.
In the United States, sales of existing homes were down by more than 28% year-over-year in October, the ninth consecutive monthly decline, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Sales are sliding elsewhere too, as banks take a more cautious approach to lending and aspiring homebuyers delay purchases in the face of much higher borrowing costs and a deteriorating economic outlook.
Yun and others describe the market as frozen, one in which home sales activity has declined for 10 months straight, according to NAR. It’s the longest streak of declines since the group started tracking sales in the late 1990s.
Mortgage rates in 25 major cities around the world tracked by UBS have almost doubled on average since last year, making house purchases much less affordable.
“A skilled service sector worker can afford roughly one-third less housing space than before the pandemic,” according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.
In Britain more than 4% of all homes have been sold to first-time buyers since 2009. “A lot of people don’t understand what it’s like when their outgoings increase” said Tom Bill of Knight Frank.
In countries with a larger share of variable rate mortgages, such as Sweden and Australia, the shock will be immediate and could increase the risk of forced sales that drive prices down faster.
New Zealand and the United Kingdom have a large proportion of mortgages that are fixed. But the average maturity of these mortgages is very short.
The U.S. Labor and Employment Markets after the GFC: An Outlook for the Next Five-Year Treasury Rates and the Chinese Housing Market
Even more debt will be subject to higher rates over the course of the next year or so, according to a report from last month.
If labor markets continue to be strong, then there is a better chance of a more benign correction.
Employment levels in many advanced economies have recovered since falling at the start of the pandemic. There are signs that labor markets are starting to cool due to weak economic growth.
The number of hours worked fell 1% in the third quarter, amounting to a deficit of 40 million full-time jobs, according to estimates by the International Labour Organization.
The outlook for global labour markets has worsened recently and on current trends job vacancies will decline and job growth will decline in the final quarter of 2022, the ILO said in an October report.
Many market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. Housing supply is still tight in a few countries as banks and households have better financial shape.
In a worst-case scenario, house prices will fall more than expected, sparking a slump in residential investment and tighter bank lending, which will lead to the world’s GDP growth dropping to just 3.0% in the next five years.
The Chinese housing market is in a downturn, which is an additional negative factor compared to the global financial crisis. “So rather than offsetting the impact on world output of a global housing downturn, as was the case after the GFC, the Chinese housing sector is contributing to the slump.”
An Empirical Survey of Mortgage Rates and Applications in the U.S. Consumer Price Index, with Preliminary Data Released on Tuesday
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, cooled considerably in November and was at its lowest level in nearly a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ closely watched index, released on Tuesday.
The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. A lot of buyers with less-than-ideal credit will pay more than the average rate.
The Fed’s actions influence the interest rates borrowers pay on their mortgages. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage goes up when the rate goes up. Mortgage rates also go down when the Treasury rate goes down.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned in his remarks that with prices still rising at a high rate, more rate increases are needed and the central bank remains committed to rate hikes until the pace of inflation notches a noticeable slowdown, Ratiu said.
Ratiu explained that the cooling in inflation measures will ease the pressure on mortgage rates.
“The sellers aren’t putting their houses on the market and the buyers that are out there, certainly the power of their dollar has changed with rising interest rates, so there is a little bit of a standoff,” says Susan Horowitz, a New Jersey-based real estate agent.
Rates have gone up in the last weeks, which has led to a decrease in mortgage applications. Last week, applications fell 7.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“Overall application activity declined last week, despite lower rates, which is an indication of the still volatile time of the year for housing activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. The spring homebuying season is expected to pick up with lower rates and slower home price growth. Some buyers regain purchasing power from the two trends.
There is a long list of housing data. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. In between, the National Association of Realtors will release the November existing home sales numbers on Wednesday as well as weekly data on mortgage rates and applications on Thursday.
Still, there are some promising signs that the worst could soon be over. After reporting earnings last week, the shares of Lennar rallied on the news. The company’s revenue exceeded forecasts and it had higher guidance for the number of homes it intended to deliver next year.
CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon said that investors may be looking ahead to a possible recovery in the future.
According to data from Amherst Group, an investment firm that buys single-family homes to rent out, it’s important to put the recent slide in prices in context.
The job market is still strong and wages are growing. Thanks to the government stimulating the economy many consumers have excess savings.
Others point out that even though housing sales may remain weak due to high home prices and still elevated mortgage rates, the good news is that most existing homeowners are still paying their monthly mortgage on time.
Again, that’s a stark contrast from 2008 when many people with subprime loans or borrowers with poor credit histories were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.
What Should Investors Learn from General Mills’ Earnings Reports? An Outlook for 2023 and the Impact of Higher Rates and Lower Interest Rates
There aren’t a lot of companies reporting their earnings this week. But the few that are could give more clues about the financial health of consumers and the state of corporate spending.
General Mills will release its earnings on Tuesday. Analysts expect an increase in sales and profit. Consumers may be growing increasingly wary about inflation and the broader economy, but they’re still eating their Wheaties. General Mills’ shares have increased in value this year.
The outlooks of sneaker king Nike, used car retailer CarMax and memory chip maker Micron are not as positive as analysts would have you believe.
Investors are also going to be paying very close attention to what companies say in their earnings reports about their outlooks for 2023. The analysts are expecting earnings growth of 5.3%. It could be too optimistic if companies start decreasing their forecasts due to the economy.
According to the chief economist of Dreyfus & Mellon, there’s a high chance of a recession. “That will have a knock-on effect for corporate earnings. Higher rates and weaker earnings are bad for stocks.
Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation; US new home sales; US durable goods orders; US U. of Michigan consumer sentiment; Japan inflation; UK markets close early
The Pauls’ Search for a New Home: Real Estate Inventory and Mortgage Rates Dropped In November, and Condoms Surprisingly Declined
Paul and his partner decided to just kind of settle down and have children after getting to a place in their lives where they were financially stable.
High home prices were the initial insurmountable hurdle. When the Pauls first started their search, low interest rates at the time had unleashed a buying frenzy in Boston, and they were relentlessly outbid.
“There’d be, you know, two dozen other offers and they’d all be $100,000 over asking,” says Paul. It was gone before we could even look at it if we tried to wait until the weekend.
Home prices have not fallen despite the drop in sales activity. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell for a fourth consecutive month in November to 1.14 million.
At an open house for a charming starter home in Hollywood one recent weekend, agent Elijah Shin didn’t see many people swing through like he did a year ago.
Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel stated that the Manhattan sales market is leaving the euphoric market of 2021, and moving closer to normal.
Prices dropped 4.7% between the third and fourth quarters, as mortgage rates really surged, ultimately reaching as high as an average of 7.08% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan in October and November, according to Freddie Mac.
The median price for a one-bedroom condo was over a million dollars. The median price for a two-bedroom condo was $2,150,000. Median prices of co-ops were lower, at $710,000 for a one-bedroom, and $1,325,000 for a two-bedroom.
Implications of Fed and Inflation for Real Estate and Homebuying Properties in the Fourth Quarter, Real Estate Markets and the Real Estate Value of the State
At the end of the fourth quarter, there were 6,552 listings in Manhattan. In the fourth quarter, it was 5% higher than in the previous quarter, but 15.7% lower than in the third.
Looking at the market metrics of prices, sales and inventory, both prices and sales are going up from their pre-pandemic levels at a modest pace, with prices rising 10% above 2019 levels and sales 6% higher.
He said sellers won’t get prices they got in 2021, and buyers won’t get much improvement on affordability. Banks are disappointed because of the way their pipeline is going.
It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve’s actions will mean higher interest rates for those who were just getting their heads around the idea of a lower rate.
He said more inventory would then become available from the locked-in homeowners clinging to their ultra-low mortgage rates from the past couple of years.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS, said that a few markets may see double-digit price drops, particularly some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have seen weaker employment.
The places like Manchester, New Hampshire, and Columbus, Ohio are still seeing homes change hands as buyers from more expensive locations are still attracted by solid local economies and median prices.
In November, as mortgage rates started a six-week tumble, the median monthly mortgage payment fell by 1.8% to $1,977 from $2,012 in October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
After the 30-year fixed mortgage rate eclipsed 7% in late 2022, Yun said he expects that to settle at 5.7%, as the Fed slows the pace of rate hikes in response to slowing inflation.
The Real Estate Market in 2022: A Year of Growth and Disturbing a Long-Term Slow Downspiral? Leonard Steinberg
Leonard Steinberg is the corporate broker at Compass in New York and he believes we may see a mirror image of 2022, with a somewhat difficult first half giving way to a relatively strong second half for buyers.
Chronic under building of new homes is also likely to remain a challenge as builders grapple with balancing a short-term decline in demand with a long-term need for more new housing, he said.
The beginning of the year tends to be among the quietest times in the seasonal real estate market, but this year is even moreso given that higher rates and still-elevated prices are creating a barrier for many buyers.
A lot of agents are expecting a strong spring housing market and the mood in the market feels more optimistic than a month ago.
The market has a boring year, which is the big surprise for a lot of people. It would change the way things are done. A boring, boring year of the housing market would be a wonderful surprise.
The growing number of businesses resorting to layoffs as a hedge against a possible economic downturn is becoming more visible due to this expectation. “People who are laid off pull back on spending, and even those who are still employed may begin to do the same due to worries about losing their job, thus potentially sending consumer spending into a downward spiral.”
With more than 10,000,000 open jobs and not enough applicants to fill them, the labor market would have to experience a sharp and significant drop in spending. “This scenario is more likely if corporate executives overreact to the recession chatter and preemptively cut payrolls, which would create a self-fulfilling downward spiral.”
Seasonal Adjusted Home Prices in the U.S. During the November Sales Cycle, the Central Bank of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Large-Scale Survey
In March, the traditional seasonal norm of more inventory and more buyers starting to look at what is available is likely to kick in, as long as buyers can stomach the current rates and sellers are willing to give up the low rates they enjoyed in the past couple years.
Last July marked the first month-over-month decrease for the national index since February 2012 and that continued through November, with seasonally adjusted prices falling 0.3% month over month.
The 20 city index had declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities still reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%.
Home prices rose 7.7% in November from the year before, a smaller jump than the 9.2% growth seen in October, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday.
Cities in the South led price appreciation, with Miami; Atlanta; and Tampa, Florida, all reporting the highest year-over-year gains among the cities in the 20-city index in November. Miami led the way with an increase of 18.4% from the previous year. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending November 2022 compared to the year ending October 2022.
The November report provides evidence of the slowing housing market during the fall, said Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist, but it may not show the worst yet of the housing market.
As many as three million more consumers can qualify for a $400,000 loan thanks to the one percentage point rate reduction, said Sam Khater of Freddie Mac.
The quarter-point hike was the smallest since March and was approved by the Fed. The central bank is seeing progress in its battle with inflation now that the pace of increases has been slowed.
The Fed’s actions are keeping a floor in mortgage rates for the next few weeks, he said, adding that he expects them to stay around 6.
“Most recent indicators point to a still-resilient economy,” said Ratiu. In December, there were 11 million job openings, the highest since July, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Housing economists and those in the mortgage market are looking to the next report on inflation, set to be released February 14, to see if the pace of price hikes continues to slow.
The down payment amount for a median priced home is less than it would have been last summer according to Ratiu. “While that is positive news, affordability remains a primary challenge, especially for first-time buyers.”
State of the Real Estate Market in the Fourth and Fifth Quarters of the 2000-2005 U.S. Census of Real Estate Properties: The Federal Reserve Chairman Revised
The Federal Reserve chairman said on Tuesday that the central bank may have done more and raised rates more than was priced in due to the resilient economy.
George Ratiu, the manager of economic research atRealtor.com said that there will be tension between expectations and economic data for several more months.
Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO, said thatAffordability at the lower end of the market continues to be a challenge but that they expect purchase demand to continue to recover in the spring.
San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. It’s the same price as it was a year ago, but it’s down from the peak in the second quarter of last year.
The median price of a home in San Francisco was $1,210,000 last quarter, which is 6.1% less than a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.
The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, price increases are smaller, and less markets experience double-digit price gains.
The number of families that needed a $100,000 minimum income to afford a 10% down payment mortgage rose in the last quarter of the year.
There was evidently a point of no return on the affordability of first-time buyers. In the previous quarter, they spent 37.8% of their family income on mortgage payments. The principal and interest of a mortgage is considered to be more than 25% of the family’s income. A common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.
Home buyers jumped at the chance to buy when mortgage rates dropped, and pending home sales blew expectations out of the water in January.
While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.
All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.
“An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.