The Elections are On: How President Donald Trump Has Been and What he’s Expected to Heisenberg Have Done
The findings suggest that voters are ready for a presidential campaign when one generation passed the torch to the next. There are questions over whether a bitterly divided political system has lost its ability to self-renewal that has always been an American strength. And it would suggest that the heady appeal of an outsider, which produced presidents in 1992, 2008 and 2016, has for now been kept at bay.
In large primaries, Trump received between 30% and 40% of the vote. 39% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want Trump as the nominee again, according to a CNN poll. The majority of them said they would probably support him in the general election if he were the nominee.
It is early. The upcoming mid-term elections in 2022 are fresh reminders that even when polls are ahead of a race, they don’t really mean much.
The race is on, no matter what the voters think. Potential rivals and potential donors are influenced by the strengths of the contender in the early money chase. Trump is already a declared candidate, although he could use a relaunch after a tepid start, and Biden is giving every sign he plans on running, suggesting he’ll let the country know for sure early in the new year.
It was easy for Biden to be in the polls when his presidency didn’t go well. But he has had a string of successes in recent months, and yet his approval rating is still stuck in the low 40s. One can only imagine the frustration he has felt.
One of the emerging paradoxes is being suggested by the poll. Even though they are the most powerful figures in their parties, both Biden and Trump seem oddly vulnerable at the start of the two-year campaign, and could face complications from a shifting political environment, outside factors or age.
Another campaign will test whether there’s been any erosion in Trump’s base. It could still carry him to his third straight nomination, even if his mythical connection to the voters is not enough to win the presidency. The unwillingness of most Republican lawmakers to repudiate Trump over comments like his recent call to terminate the Constitution suggest that they are still under the sway of the ex-president’s supporters at home. The same can be said for House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who has found ways not to condemn Trump’s recent associations with extremists in his desperate bid to win the speaker’s gavel next month.
The question of his age, however, might be less important if Biden faces Trump, who is already 76. The current commander in chief could potentially be vulnerable to a younger Republican, like the one in their 40s.
The president ends the year in a better shape than Trump and seems to have been stabilizing his decline. This summer, only 25% of Democrat-aligned voters wanted him to be their nominee. 40% is the figure now. The advantage of a sitting president usually prevails against a primary challenger when people who want someone else choose not to do so.
There is a possibility of Republican politics being at a transition moment. The future of Trump’s prospects will be determined by how things shake out in the next few months. More and more Republicans are saying it is time to move on because of the poor performance of many of the ex-presidents hand-picked candidates.
The arguments that Trump is a damaged candidate are reinforced by his dinner with extremists with a record of antisemitism. Trump’s so-far lackluster campaign, which looks like it was declared to make it easier for him to portray criminal probes into his conduct as persecution, isn’t convincing anyone so far.
The former president’s allies, like Jim Jordan and Marjorie Taylor Greene, will be very influential in the new House majority. Paradoxically, the failure of Republicans to do better in November means that a thinner majority will be easier for extremists to manipulate as they seek to turn Republican control of half of the Capitol into a weapon to damage Biden and help Trump in 2024.
GOP hopefuls will see that 38% – the lowest point of three CNN polls on the topic this year – as an opening for an anti-Trump candidate. But another big field could splinter opposition to the ex-president among untested potential foes.
Reply to the State of the Union: Sarah Huckabee Sanders addressing the Adler’s dilemma: Why Biden didn’t tell me what a woman was
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders gave a combative speech Tuesday evening in response to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, drawing a sharp contrast with Biden as she delivered a series of blistering criticisms of the president.
The opportunity to go after Biden, and the left’s radical agenda that ignores the hard realities Americans face every day, was taken by the senator. She stated that Biden is surrendering his presidency to a mob that can’t tell you what a woman is.
Some will complain his words didn’t work to unify the country; I’d argue we cannot be unified without speaking the truth, and Biden called that out. He spoke to his base and said that he didn’t forget why he’s at that podium.
Sanders gained national prominence as White House press secretary under former President Donald Trump, serving as a staunch defender of the then-President and his policies, and frequently clashing with national reporters.
She made history last year as the first woman elected as governor of Arkansas. Her father, Republican Mike Huckabee, served as governor of the state from 1996 to 2007.
The GOP has been in control of the House since last year, so they are using that power to conduct oversight investigations into the Biden administration.
Republican congressional leaders McCarthy and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell announced earlier this month that Sanders would give the response for their party to the State of the Union.
The Way of Unity: From Hillary Clinton to the First Lady and the Senate to the War-Torn West Side of Iraq, and Back Towards a Democratic Solution
She said that she will never forget one of the foreign trips she traveled on with the president.
“We landed in the war-torn part of western Iraq,” Sanders said, and described a scene where hundreds of troops “who were in the fight against ISIS” had gathered in a dining hall to celebrate Christmas.
“They had absolutely no idea that the president and first lady were about to walk into that room,” she said, saying that when that happened, “the room erupted. Everyone in the entire world started chanting, “USA, USA, USA” in perfect unison.
After being sworn in as governor, Sanders signed a flurry of executive orders, with one targeting critical race theory “to prohibit indoctrination” in schools and another barring the use of the term “Latinx” in official state documents.
McConnell said in a statement, “Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the youngest Governor in the nation and a powerful advocate for the popular, commonsense conservative principles that will put our country back on a better course.”
As frustrating as it is, it is hard to deny Biden was very well connected with his audience and that he emphasized what the Trump Republicans don’t: that democracy matters and we all share the same hope.
This is consistent with the way the President has understood “the way of unity” the last two years. A creature of the Senate, Biden’s approach has focused on passing popular legislation most Americans will understand and appreciate, while drawing attention — and political energy — away from the divisive identity politics and culture wars that fueled the rise of Donald Trump.
McCarthy has an impossible choice, he can either give Biden a popular accomplishment to run on or give him an appealing issue to run on. It is a win-WIN proposition for Biden.
Paul Biden and the Charged Citizens of the Sixth Amendment: How the GOP Can Keep Up with the Reforms and the State of the Union
Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist and CNN political commentator, was a political consultant for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992 and served as a counselor to Clinton in the White House.
Voters are used to politicians making promises. The things voters won’t have heard in a State of the Union before will be the most eye-catching.
Biden promoted his agenda without being overly partisan, and he tout his accomplishments. He made repeated appeals to bipartisanship, underscored the works done with Republican support, and when GOP members heckled him on Social Security he managed to spar with them from the podium and, with a bit of jujitsu, appear to have secured a bipartisan agreement to leave Social Security benefits untouched.
Kristen Soltis Anderson, a CNN political commentator, is a Republican strategist and pollster and author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”
Rather than going back to a pre-Civil Rights era, Biden reflected on the feeling of unmoored in recent years, not because of the new slogan, but because of the idea that America lost pride in itself. He called the attack on the Capitol an insurrection, referring to January 6 as the greatest threat to democracy since the Civil War. Many audience members still support the lie that the 2020 election was stolen and that’s part of the threat to democracy.
A statement as basic as everyone should “pay your fair share of taxes,” and it’s wrong for corporations “making record profits while paying zero in taxes” was met with stone-faced looks from half the chamber, even when Biden pointed out that an oil and gas company paying 15% tax is less than what a nurse pays.
Joe Biden: On the Breakdown of Biden’s Good, Evil, and Fake Talk with the American Black-Hole Families
Biden was also fearless as he adeptly wove together the painful reality of “the talk” Black parents have with their kids about how to interact with the police and humanized all sides of a renewed call for criminal justice and policing reforms rooted in core American values of trust, public safety, accountability, mutual respect and equal protection under law.
He got down the most relatable aspects of policy — that when families who feel pinched in the pocketbook can finally afford a vacation, we get hit with resort fees at places that “aren’t even a resort” and airlines force parents to pay to be seated with their children.
Biden talked about the government as a force for good. Biden made the idea of democracy concrete, by taking the possibility of what good it can do in our lives. Too bad this current Congress is operating in an alternate reality.
But for middle-of-the-road voters, neither the southern border nor inflation received much attention from the President — despite both issues being of importance to voters. Neither did the Chinese spy balloon, whose coast-to-coast journey undermines Biden’s tough talk toward Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Biden recounted his past legislative accomplishments without offering much in the way of concrete areas of bipartisan agreement going forward, which is a requirement for anything to pass a divided Congress.
It’s hard to think how Joe Biden could have delivered a better performance than he did tonight. He was feisty, full of energy, marshaled his arguments effectively and even batted back Republican catcalls with good humor. At the end of the evening, he looked like a boxer who wanted to get into the ring again.
Did Biden move the needle? What did he learn from his first appearance at the 2020 Atlanta Senator’s National Basketball Tournament? An analysis by Geoff Duncan
Geoff Duncan, a CNN political contributor, served as Georgia’s Lieutenant Governor from 2019-2023. He is a former professional baseball player, and his book was about how the 2020 election can lead to a better way forward for the Conservative Party.
The way in which Biden talked about it was very different than the way he was portrayed by the Republicans as beholden to the extreme left.
Karen Finney has worked at the intersection of politics, media and cultural change for over 25 years. She is a leader and advocate for social justice and civil rights, and she has had various roles in her career.
But he now faces an even sterner test: Did he actually move the needle? Among presidents of the recent past, a public appearance as powerful as this one could shake up politics. Former Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan each had the capacity to change minds when they held a microphone.
Perhaps Biden, on Tuesday, began getting through to prospective or wavering voters, persuading some — maybe even many — of them to join up for his reelection campaign. Democratic strategists will be more confident about his prospects for reelection if that is the case. They may decide to leave the reservation if he does not pick up his pace after a night like this.
The First State of the Union: David Gergen’s Call for Restoration of the Memphis Police Department and the Case of the 28-Year-Old Black Man
David Gergen has been a White House adviser to four presidents of both parties and is a senior political analyst at CNN. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service at the Harvard Kennedy School and co-founded its Center for Public Leadership.
He should have called for Congress to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act. The family of the 29-year-old Black man who was killed by the Memphis Police Department deserves to hear it.
Mondaire Jones is a CNN political commentator and former Representative for New York’s 17th Congressional District. He is a member of the Commission on Civil Rights.
The trick, though, comes in standing up for what’s right even while speaking to the masses. This was the first state of the union since the Supreme Court struck down the fundamental right of women in America. The fact that the right for women to decide when and how to have children is just as important as outsourcing jobs or federal contracts is another reason why abortion doesn’t merit a mention until well into the speech.
And some members of the Republican caucus seemed keen to highlight the distinctions between the thoughtful, unity-emphasizing Biden and their own party’s shameful descent. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, among others, repeatedly booed and yelled throughout the speech; when he introduced the parents of Tyre Nichols, who was last month fatally beaten by Memphis police officers, and the Ukrainian ambassador, she stayed seated. That may say more than Biden could.
An astonishing act of leadership in Congress during the September 11 shooting: Brandon Tsay thanked for his heroism and a courageous American who worked so hard to protect the border
Jill Filipovic is a journalist based in New York and author of the book “OK Boomer, Let’s Talk: How My Generation Got Left Behind.” You can follow her on social media.
As a native of Monterey Park, California, it is still surreal to me that my hometown experienced a mass shooting last month that claimed the lives of 11 people. Brandon Tsay was thanked for his heroism by the president. The need for gun reform is still needed, and so is recognition of a brave American.
The president wants his fellow lawmakers to make the issue of immigration a bipartisan one. He noted that immigration problems won’t be fixed until Congress acts, despite the fact that his administration has new efforts at the border. He is absolutely correct that the president can only make temporary fixes to our immigration system. The speaker’s speech seemed to generate heckling with some members chanting, “Secure the border.” This illustrates the president’s dilemma: Like many Americans, he supports reasonable immigration reform. Republican lawmakers, meanwhile, are fixated on generating chaos and division around the issue.
Kevin McCarthy, the new Speaker of the House, appeared to be upset with his own conference when they shouted at him to secure the border. It was an amazing act of leadership from a person who aligned himself with former President Donald Trump and voted to overturn the election results.
Biden’s State of the Union: The role of the youngest president in the fight for a new generation of Republican leadership in the White House
Turner Conoly Group is headed by a woman, and she is a consultant for the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. She is a former senior adviser to former President Barack Obama and senior aide to the Biden-Harris campaign.
These goals, the White House is calculating, are ideal for a period when it expects Congress to pass few bills and for House Republicans to focus on investigations of Biden’s family and his administration. He is daring Republicans to resist the proposals in the “Unity Agenda” because they are uncontroversial.
But it has done little to actually unify the country. Recent polls suggest Americans are just as divided as they were before the midterms, and a solid majority expect little more than partisan gridlock from Washington the next two years.
An associate professor at the George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, Gest is known for his innovative teaching methods. He is the author of six books on the politics of immigration and demographic change including, most recently, “Majority Minority.”
Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review.
Huckabee spoke out against President Joe Bidens State of the Union address and said that it was time for a new generation of Republican leadership.
Ms. Sanders directly went after him over his age. “At 40, I’m the youngest governor in the country. She said that he is the oldest president in American history. She added: “It is time for a new generation of Republican leadership,” without saying whether that meant her former boss, Mr. Trump, who is 76, should be nominated for a third time.
On the Reality of a Right-Wing Presidential Candidate: The Case for an End of Medicare and Social Security: A Comparison with the Predictions of Biden
Biden talked about unemployment numbers, record new jobs and lower prescription drug prices in his speech. But the reality is that just because he says things are better, doesn’t make it so. American people are still suffering.
Marty Walsh, the labor secretary who was given to stay away as a designated survivor in case of a catastrophe at the Capitol, was not present.
As important as his program may be, the president also faced pressure to ensure a smooth performance in front of what was likely to be his largest television audience of the year. If he seeks another term, he would ask people to vote for him until he’s 86. Polls show that even many Democrats are concerned about his age and eager to see a younger generation rise to leadership of the party.
And she drew contrasts between her and Biden, pointing out that the president is the oldest to serve in American history, while she is one of the youngest governors in the country.
“I’m the first woman to lead my state, and he’s the first man to surrender his presidency to a woke mob that can’t even tell you what a woman is,” Sanders said.
She described a trip she took with Trump to Iraq as a great example of the grand reverence that Americans should have for their country.
While right wing House Republicans couldn’t help themselves, hectoring Biden repeatedly despite Kevin McCarthy instructing them not to do so, showed a clear contrast between himself and them.
The president did not propose a lot of new policies from the new Congress, for example, ending what he called “junk fees” in travel, entertainment and credit cards. It showed he’s gearing up for campaign mode and that he’s likely going to campaign on what he’s already done by drawing a big-picture distinction between his vision for America and Republicans’.
Some of what is likely to make Democrats comfortable is the pluck he showed — the willingness and ability to spar with Republicans and depict them not as normal, but extreme.
The best example of this was on Medicare and Social Security. He deftly riled up House Republicans, accusing some of wanting to cut the popular entitlements. He was careful to say that some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to end every five years.
That’s what the former National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., did with his “Rescue America Plan.” McCarthy has said that cuts to Medicare and Social Security are off the table, but Democrats are sticking with it. House Republicans saw the accusation as false and too far.
The exchange got rid of the lid on the comity. From then on, Republicans shouted and heckled – with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accusing Biden of being a “liar” and others yelling out, “It’s your fault!” when Biden decried fentanyl deaths.
Americans love an under-the-radar story with a good dose of nationalism. Right- and left-wing populism is clearly a hot ticket in politics. Donald Trump and Joe Biden have populist ideals, they are both centred on the little guy vs the people in power. They’re not going to take it anymore, so they’re modern-day Howard Beales.
Biden went after corporate stock buybacks, oil and gas company profits, Big Pharma, “wealthy tax cheats” and billionaires (hello, Sen. Bernie Sanders).
It was a heavy dose of left-wing populism with policies that are actually quite popular. He even made news, saying that he is going to “require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America.”
Biden’s Domestic Issues in the Era of U.S.-Russia Relations and the Crimes of Crime: Defending the Law
“I will make no apologies that we are investing to make America strong,” Biden said. “China’s government wants to dominate the future by investing in American innovation and industries that will define it.”
But there wasn’t much beyond about 200 words of the more than 7,000-word speech devoted to what’s become inarguably one of America’s top geopolitical threats.
On Ukraine, Biden noted the presence of Ukraine’s ambassador and touted what the U.S. has done for the country over the past year of its war with Russia.
There was not much on either country beyond that. It shows that Biden’s reelection campaign will be centered on domestic issues.
“After years of Democrat attacks on law enforcement and calls to ‘Defund the Police,’ violent criminals roam free, while law-abiding families live in fear,” she said.