Putin plans to make it easier for men to avoid service in Russia

The Kremlin is worried about a second wave of Russian mass mobilization: Why Russians are anxious and uncertain about the threat of the second wave in Ukraine

When Vladimir Putin tried to mobilize hundreds of thousands of citizens to fight in his invasion of Ukraine last September, chaos, fear and anger reverberated through Russia.

The new bill – passed by lawmakers on Wednesday, and awaiting only Putin’s signature before it becomes law – is, according to the Kremlin, an unremarkable streamlining of Russia’s biannual conscription process.

A psychologist from Moscow told CNN that they have been anticipating the second wave for a long time. The amendments had an effect on me by making me feel uncertain and anxious.

It would ban those involved in military service from traveling abroad, as well as electronic delivery of military call-up papers. It also includes tough penalties for those who ignore a summons – barring them from getting a loan, moving into a new apartment, registering as self-employed and driving a vehicle.

But CNN spoke to a number of Russians who dismiss the Kremlin’s reassurances, and say the move lays the groundwork for another attempt to force Russians onto the battlefields in Ukraine.

“During the first wave they used police raids to round up conscripts. People didn’t like that. So now they are trying to concoct something different,” she said.

Artem, who dodged the September deployment despite getting a call-up, said they may be trying to avoid the full-scale manhunt they employed before. “I am not at all convinced these measures will help to avoid a rampant mobilization like in autumn last year.”

But he is certain of one thing: if another attempt at mass mobilization arrives, he will not comply. “My relatives, not fit for army service, can drive my car if they take away my license,” he said. I do not own any real estate. And the traveling ban has more of a psychological effect on me than practical – or I would have left long ago.”

He is certain his friends and family would do the same. “It will prompt them to take more measures to dodge. Some will move to their country homes, others will forge documents and still others will leave. Everyone will have to find a way around this.

Most of the friends and aquaintances that I know don’t go to internment centers. She said they would use anything to avoid getting there.

On the Kremlin’s failure of Mobilization and the mass exodus of Russians in the wake of the September 11th Ukrainian Revolution

The bill is meant to fix the mess caused by the partial Mobilization order, the Kremlin claimed on Wednesday.

It was an admission of failure that showed how damaging that initial effort was. The order was thrown into doubt by issues and prompted thousands of Russians to flee for their lives.

During a call with reporters, Peskov denied that the Kremlin was concerned that the new law would cause another mass exodus of Russians. It is not related to mobilization and is related to military registration.

The lawyer from Moscow, who was not identified, told CNN that he does not believe a word of it. While he is not within the official age range for mobilization, he does not expect the Kremlin to stick to their own guidelines when calling up recruits.

Russia’s Defense Ministry routinely conscripts men for compulsory military service twice a year, in spring and autumn. There will be 147,000 draft entrants aged between 18 and 27 during the spring of 2015, according to a document published by the government.

The process that was happening in Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine are the reasons for the changes. The memories of September are very much felt by young men around the country.

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I am very upset about this war. All wars and deaths by force, regardless of the cause, are the same. I would prefer that the wars were fought by trained military or volunteers.

It is difficult to flee. Artem is exploring the idea but doesn’t see a lot of options for being able to find work abroad.

You can’t find work and accommodation abroad even if it were possible. Many of those who had left in autumn last year had returned,” she said. It would’ve been better if my son was living in another country. My daughter had left two years ago and I worry about her much less than I would, had she been here.”

Though the Kremlin has been quick to downplay the significance of the move, its provisions and timing are convenient for a military bogged down in stalemate in its ground campaign in eastern Ukraine, after months of grinding combat which has bled their manpower and weaponry.

“[Russia has] acknowledged that they needed 400,000 more troops and that’s not just for the conflict [in Ukraine], but also to fulfill new formations which are going to be put on the new border with NATO and Finland,” the officials said in a briefing on Wednesday, answering a question from CNN.

For those who oppose the conflict, it only hardened their opposition. “Is it the second wave? (It) seems very much so,” Artem said. Any wave of Mobilization is meant to give the front more meat.

Summing up his feelings, and referring to Putin by his first and middle names, he added: “Try and recall all of the most eloquent obscenities you know … that would be my view on the war, the draft and everything to do with Vladimir Vladimirovich’s system of governing.”

Russian men and women with specialized skills are not able to avoid being drafted or conscripted due to the new law.

That system will now be supplanted by electronic notifications — i.e. emails — issued through systems including the web portals that Russians use to pay their utility bills, taxes and other services.

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Those who fail to show up at a recruitment office promptly will soon face a raft of new restrictions related to banking, selling property and even gaining access to a driver’s license.

It provided reinforcements for the front line, but also drove hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the country to avoid the draft. Many other citizens dodged service within the country by changing their address or simply claiming not to have seen the draft notice.

Whether the government calls up more Russians to fight ultimately depends on what happens in the coming months — particularly as Ukraine prepares to launch a counteroffensive to retake occupied territories.

In recent months, the military has focused on recruiting volunteers, offering contract soldiers far higher pay to fight in Ukraine — up to $2,600 a month, a vast sum for Russians from small towns or rural areas.

Last year’s drive was unpopular and authorities seem aware of that. It set off protests across the country, and a rash of public complaints that recruits lacked equipment and training for battle — grievances that citizens often aired in public videos. President Putin even made a rare admission that “mistakes” were made.

Russia has suffered heavy losses and failed to control territory that Moscow illegally claimed to have annexed last fall.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/13/1169464889/russia-military-draft-ukraine-war

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