This time, Beijing will have more to lose than it did last time

The Taiwan-US Relationship and the End of Tsai’s High-stakes International Trip to the South of the Taipei Island

For Tsai, the meeting will mark the end of a high-stakes international trip intended to repair Taiwan’s relationship with its limited number of foreign partners and to show voters that she has strengthened ties with the U.S. in her final year in office.

At that time, Beijing encircled the island democracy with unprecedented military drills – firing multiple missiles into its surrounding waters and sending dozens of warplanes speeding across a sensitive median line dividing the Taiwan Strait.

It also cut off contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to combating climate change, in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.

It also slammed Washington for allowing Tsai to stopover in the US while en route to and from official visits in Central America, warning it could lead to “serious” confrontation between the two powers.

A defiant Tsai staked out her own ground, pledging as she took off on her 10-day trip not to let “external pressure” stop Taiwan from connecting with the world and like-minded democracies.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Beijing won’t be closely watching Tsai’s movements as it calibrates its response – and decides how much military might to flex over her meeting with an American lawmaker on American soil.

Sun said that every time Taiwan does something that China doesn’t like, the Chinese are coerced into doing it. But in the current situation, “they have to consider the consequences of overreaction,” she added.

There are competing interests within the bureaucracy that make it hard to accurately predict China’s response.

If Beijing does damage to its relationship with Washington as it did with Pelosi after the downed Chinese balloon incident, there’s a good chance the relationship will be in trouble.

The event is a big one for the president, as she is entering her final year in office. “She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” he said.

That increased visibility – and enhanced cooperation with the US – has followed China’s mounting pressure on the island, which sits fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the mainland coast.

The Communist Party of China claims the island is its own, even though it has never been in control.

Over the last decade, the party has undertaken a broad expansion of its military abilities and increased its diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan.

Beijing is preparing for an invasion that some people in Washington think is the most likely option for achieving the claimed goal of reunification.

Congressional support of Taiwan has increased in the last few years. Lawmakers often visit the island to drive bipartisan legislation.

Under Washington’s longstanding “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the island of 23 million.

Pelosi’s trip – the first from a lawmaker of that rank to the island in 25 years – generated a fever pitch of nationalist and anti-US rhetoric in mainland China.

As Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January, a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as more friendly toward Beijing.

It could also jar with another high profile trip happening now: a tour of mainland China from former Taiwan president and senior KMT member Ma Ying-jeou, the first visit from a current or former Taiwan leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Ma’s tour is a “once in a half a century opportunity to send a conciliatory message between the two sides, Beijing shouldn’t want to tank that,” said Sung, the political scientist.

This week, as Tsai is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will head to China – an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with military posturing.

An aggressive response also risks stoking confrontation with the US, not yet six months after Xi and US President Joe Biden called to enhance communication during a face-to-face meeting in Bali.

Taiwan’s Consul General Meeting is Unlikely, but China is Proposed to Disrupt the International Shipping Lanes and Encircle Taiwan

The pair are set to meet, along with other American officials from both political parties, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on the northern outskirts of Los Angeles, rather than in Taipei, as originally proposed by McCarthy.

The countries that recognise Taiwan and not Beijing are in Central America, and that is where Tsai made her way to.

Even though the US doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan, it is still supportive of the island.

Starting last weekend, China’s People’s Liberation Army held live-fire joint force training exercises for its air force, navy and ground forces — preparation, China has suggested, for much larger drills that could once again disrupt international shipping lanes and encircle Taiwan, should Tsai go through with the meeting with McCarthy.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said that Beijing’s threats are “increasingly absurd and unreasonable,” and that Taiwan will not set limits on itself because of intimidation.

His visit has been a point of criticism for Taiwan’s ruling political party, a reflection of the contrasting approaches they take to relations with China.