What is at stake as the president of Nigeria is elected

The “Japa” Wave: Awakening of a “Big Crunch” in a Big, Rich, Brooding Country

The population of Nigeria, which is currently the sixth largest in the world, could become a third largest by the year 2050 according to the United Nations. Whether the country moves forward or regresses, its future will be consequential around the world.

Since the president took office in 2015, millions of jobs have been lost and almost half of the population live in poverty. Inflation and oil production in Nigeria have gone up, but the value of the country’s currency, the naira, has plummeted.

Violent insecurity and terrorism, which existed in some parts of the country, have proliferated across swaths of it — reshaping everyday life in profound ways. There are threats from both terrorists and the groups that support them in the north and central regions of Nigeria. The number of kidnapping attacks around the country has soared, rising as the economy has worsened.

Bleak prospects for a young population with a median age of under 19 have spurred a “japa” wave — rising numbers seeking to leave the country in search of a better life.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/24/1158978511/nigeria-election

Tinubu, Obi, or a rich businessman, has changed Nigerian politics by blowing open the gate: the story of a winner and the losers

There are only one woman among the 18 candidates, but they all matter. The front-runners are two older figures who have dominated politics for a generation, and then a slightly younger candidate who has blown open the race, threatening to pull off a major upset.

Tinubu is one of the most powerful politicians in Nigeria, and he is running for president in the All Progressives Congress. He’s Muslim from the majority Yoruba southwest and is a hugely divisive figure.

And Peter Obi, 61 years old, a wealthy businessman and former governor of the southeastern Anambra state, has attracted a stunning wave of support, largely among younger voters. This has destabilized Nigerian politics and riled the political class. He has been cast as an anti-establishment candidate, despite emerging from the political establishment, and his campaign has tapped into a wide sense of dismay with the ruling class. His reputation as a friendly figure with few allegations of corruption has set him apart.

But to his detractors, he’s a corrupting figure, wielding outsize control over politics in Lagos and the southwest, and dogged by questions over his age, health and the source of his vast wealth. In 1992, the U.S. government accused him in a lawsuit of laundering proceeds from heroin trafficking, and he eventually reached a settlement.

He has faced challenges as well. His candidacy has caused splits in his party, whose presidential candidates usually alternate between northern and southern Nigeria. This time it was expected to be a southerner. He has also been accused of corruption in the U.S. In 2010, he was accused of transferring more than-40 million insuspect funds into the US from offshore corporations by one of his four wives. Some of the money was alleged to be bribes paid by German company Siemens AG, which pleaded guilty to bribery charges. Atiku has consistently denied any wrongdoing.

A grassroots movement of Obi’s followers, who call themselves “Obidients,” has lit up the election campaign. Many young people, whose political awakening was the major “End SARS” protests in 2020 against police brutality, are backing him and voting for the first time. He is still a long shot to defeat the two larger and wealthier political parties who are more established across the country.

It is possible that the election will go to a runoff vote for the first time. A candidate needs 25% of the votes in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states to win an election. All of the candidates have strong support in some regions but face an uphill task in others. The race will likely come down to three main candidates, which adds to the possibility of a second and final vote.

It’s possible, so don’t rule out a late postponement. Both of the last two elections were postponed. This was announced before the polls opened in the country, and officials cited the need for security. Violence appears to be a bigger challenge now in some parts of the country, particularly in the southeast, where armed groups have stepped up attacks targeting police and election material.

On election day, Maryam Adetona arrived at her polling unit in Ilorin in North-Central Nigeria at around 10 am, while officials were still setting up. Akinwale Philip arrived at his booth at 9 a.m. In Owerri, in the southeast of the country, Chisom Nnachi got to his polling unit at around 8 am, and had to wait four hours before officials turned up. Adebayo had to make it to his unit at around 11 am, after he was held up in Abeokuta. Four people in their twenties were voting for the first time in the country’s presidential and senatorial elections.

Dr. Chidi Nwagwu told CNN: “I arrived at around 10am. The polling materials were late and we had to start voting. Some thugs arrived and started hitting people with chairs. I was hit several times with a chair. There was a doctor who helped us. A lot of women were attacked, including a pregnant woman. They crashed her phone and knocked her to the ground.

If you had a phone, that was a crime. People had their phones smashed after being beaten. It was very frightening.

A frustrated citizen’s perspective on elections in Gabon: “The first Nigerian voter, Abeokuta, a life and death situation”

Yiaga Africa, a non-profit civic group that deployed 3,836 observers across the country said it was disappointed with the elections. “There’s a sense of disappointment, quite frankly, with the way this process has gone. Yiaga has not solved its logistical challenges with elections, according to it’s Executive Director.

Yiaga said that it was concerned that no one had uploaded the results from thousands of polling units to the electoral commission portal by 10pm on Saturday.

It raises a lot of questions because it deviates from guidelines for the elections. But it also casts doubt on the integrity of this entire process,” Itodo said.

The chairman of the electoral commission (INEC) Chairman Mahmood Yakubu briefly addressed the country at a media briefing on Sunday where he explained the collation process but did not address the issues around results transmission.

In some of the violence that happened in the country, the electoral machines known as Bi multimodal Voter Accreditation system (BVAS) were lost.

“The internet allowed youths of the same mind to connect and organize organically. It was the first time we had ever seen organic rallies being held nationwide with little to no party organizing it. “Opposition [parties] missed these early signs and dismissed them as ‘four people tweeting in a room.’ It was much more than that, months later.

The first voter in Abeokuta, Ayomide, saw the EndSARS protests firsthand, and began to feel engaged in politics. “It became a life and death situation for me,” said Ayomide.

As the election approached, activist groups worked on voter education and encouraged young people to get out and vote. Most of the newly registered voters were between the ages of 18 and 34.

“When I was a first-time voter I learned a lot about voting online,” he says. There were live updates, virtual drives, donations, and a platform that allowed you to directly question the candidates. It was also a constant reminder of all the reasons why you needed to vote.”