Heavy rain is predicted this week in the western US
Climate Change in Hurricane Ian’s Forecasts: A Review of NOAA’s Communications with the Public and the Effect of Its Effect on Storm Predictions
The gap between scientists and forecasters was on full display when Hurricane Ian hit Florida in September. The storm gathered strength over the hot water in the Gulf of Mexico which is caused by global warming.
But that science is largely missing from public weather forecasts that millions of people in the U.S. rely on. As severe weather gets more common, scientists and forecasters are contending with a sneakily difficult question: How do we work together to explain the role of climate change?
But when a disaster is unfolding, the official weather forecasts from the federal government don’t include information about how climate change is making the disaster more severe or more likely, even when the connection is well-established by previous studies. Most people get forecasts on their phones and television from official government information.
But including climate context in real-time weather warnings is easier said than done, says Sarah Kapnick, the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Kapnick has a background as a research scientist, and has worked on extreme-event attribution studies.
She said that because of the interest from the public and local officials who are facing severe weather due to climate change, a review of how the agencycommunicates with the public is underway.
The findings highlight a counterintuitive effect of climate change: coastal communities are experiencing dangerous storms more frequently, even though the total number of storms doesn’t appear to be changing.
Pressed by CNN’s Don Lemon, Rhome responded, “I don’t think you can link climate change to any one event. On the whole, on the cumulative, climate change may be making storms worse. But to link it to any one event, I would caution against that.”
Climate change caused Ian to drop at most 10% more rain than it would have without global warming, as a preliminary analysis showed by Wehner and other climate scientists shortly after the storm made landfall.
Climate Change: Impacts of Southern Hemisphere Wind and Snow on Trees in the Nearby, Central U.S., and South
More support for electric vehicles and policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions are included.
It’s unclear how long those attitudes last after a climate-driven disaster. Figuring that out is an active area of research. “There appears to be this window of time within which you might want to help people better understand what those risks are, and make links to climate change,” Wong-Parodi explains.
Wong-Parodi believes that is important, because it has implications for how we communicate to the public about these types of events.
Areas from the Great Lakes into the Northeast will experience a combination of stronger winds and ice which could cause power outages and damage to trees.
Over the next week, the weather service predicted heavy rain and mountain snow. Atmospheric river storms are long plumes of moisture stretching out into the Pacific and are capable of dropping staggering amounts of rain and snow.
A damaging wind event is expected in the central US Sunday after the same storm system moves east. More than 20 million people are under the threat of severe storms Sunday from western Texas to Illinois, including Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Fort Worth, and St. Louis.
Seattle and Salt Lake City had wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph. And the San Francisco Bay Area saw as much as 4 inches of rain in North Bay on Monday and Tuesday.
Strong winds in Portland could knock down trees that have been weakened by weather extremes in recent years, arborist Colin Bourgeois told CNN affiliate KATU.
The heat dome and dry summers damage trees because they take up a lot of energy to fight off pathogens.
The Second-Wettest Day of the Los Angeles Wet Weather System in 15 Years and Expected Snowfall to Sweep into the Sierra Nevada
San Francisco’s downtown NWS site recorded the second-wettest day in 170 years on December 31, with over five inches of rain.
The system is expected to cause 1-2 inches of rain over the lower elevations and 3-4 inches in the foothills of Southern California, but not as much as the atmospheric rivers of previous weeks. Up to 3 inches of precipitation could be seen in Arizona.
The western part of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the coastal areas of southern Oregon and the Los Angeles County area are prone to flash-flooding.
The National Weather Service in Los Angeles said goodbye to the warmth. “Big drop in temperatures on track between today and tomorrow (Tuesday). Expect 15-20 degrees of cooling thanks to the approaching storm system.”
California is off to a fast start with snowpack, a critical source of water and good news for some improvement in drought conditions. The California Department of Water Resources stated last week that the state’s snowpack was over 150% of normal.
In the West, an initial round of lashing rain, wind and snow has moved inland and is set Wednesday to engulf inter-mountain areas. There is a chance that coastal states can experience a brief lull on Wednesday but more rounds of rain and snow are predicted to sweep in at the end of the week.
The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles said on Sunday that the storm is expected to impact southwest California for a few days with mostly snow in the mountains. “Snow or graupel may even occur across some elevated valleys!” Graupel means snow that resembles soft hail.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet were expected above 7,000 feet, and isolated accumulations of 5 feet were possible above 9,000 feet, the Weather Service said.
New Year’s Eve Weather Forecasts in the West Coast of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Flux Up to 125 MeV
For states along the West Coast, atmospheric rivers are “actually responsible for a good majority of the rainfall during the colder season, which is the season when they get most of their rain,” Oravec said.
Even though there was heavy rain in the West, the East is starting to see warmer temperatures after a historic winter storm. Hard-hit places like the Buffalo, N.Y., area, where at least 31 people have died, are trying to recover and clear roads as snowfall lessens.
New Year’s Eve celebrations in New York City and Washington, DC will likely be disrupted by bad weather. Los Angeles, too, is expected to ring in a soggy new year.
The entire Bay Area and the Central Valley are under a flood watch. Rain could ease Saturday evening before the calendar turns to 2023.
Rain chances for New York City will increase through Saturday, with the heaviest rainfall expected between 7 p.m. and 1 a.m. Sunday. Through most of the day on Saturday and Sunday the temperatures will be in the 50s.
The weather prediction center said the areas that are in a slight risk area are already high in soil moisture, burn scars and urban areas.
Interstate-70 Reopened after a Heavy Snowfall and Snowfall in Oregon, and Its Implications for PowerOutage.us
An eastbound stretch of Interstate-70 in Colorado reopened Thursday after a nine-hour closure left drivers stranded amid bouts of heavy mountain snow, widespread rain and gusty winds.
Dangerous conditions Tuesday in Oregon left five people dead, including a 4-year-old girl, after severe weather caused trees to fall on passing vehicles, state police said.
The state of California. A powerful storm brought drenching rain or heavy snowfall to much of California on Saturday, snarling traffic and closing highways as the state prepared to usher in a new year.
About a million households nationwide were without power as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday. The vast majority of those outages — more than 750,000 — are in Michigan, where residents have been hit with freezing rain and ice. That’s according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks outages state-by-state.
Too many road closures are not counted at this time according to the weather agency. Residents of the unincorporated community of Wilton were advised to evacuate due to flooded roads that could cut off access to leave the area.
The Second Wetest Day Ever in San Francisco During the Decay of the Cosumnes River, and Its Effects on Highway 99, Lake Tahoe, and Ski Resorts
It was the second wettest day ever in San Francisco, with 5 inches of rain falling at midafternoon. With rain continuing to fall, it could threaten the nearly three-decade old record.
A section of Highway 99 in south of Elk grove has been closed due to flooding from the Cosumnes River. One of the state’s heavily traveled corridors is known as “SR 99”.
Weather service meteorologist Courtney Carpenter said the storm could drop over an inch of rain in the Sacramento area before moving south. One ski resort south of Lake Tahoe closed chair lifts because of flooding and operational problems, and posted a photo on Twitter showing one lift tower and its empty chairs surrounded by water.
The Sacramento agency released a map of 24-hour precipitation through Saturday morning, showing a wide range of totals in the region, from less than an inch (2.54 centimeters) in some areas to more than 5 inches (12.7 centimeters) in the Sierra foothills.
The Stockton Police Department posted photos of a flooded railroad underpass and a car that appeared stalled in more than a foot (30 centimeters) of water.
According to the National Weather Service’s Eureka office, the earthquake and its aftermath caused flooding on the roads in the county. A bridge that was temporarily closed last week due to earthquake damage may be closed again if the Eel River, which it crosses, gets too high, officials said.
The National Weather Service predicts that there will be light to Moderate valley rain and mountain snow on Monday and Tuesday.
“Strong winds could cause tree damage and lead to power outages and high waves on Lake Tahoe may capsize small vessels,” the weather service in Reno said.
Flood warnings and watches were issued on the Sierra’s eastern front as well as in Nevada, where minor to moderate flooding was predicted along some rivers and streams.
And as streets flooded and river water levels rose, the storm also forced residents of several small communities in northern California out of their homes on New Year’s Eve as evacuation orders and warnings were issued.
As California has been hit by a catastrophic drought and faced raging wildfires, there has been a torrent of rain. Now, much of the state cannot bare to absorb more moisture without the possibility of even more flooding.
The Santa Cruz County Sheriff’s Office ordered the three communities near the city of Watsonville to evacuate, as well as the two communities of Paradise Park and Felton, because of the rising San Lorenzo River waters.
Flood impacts will be widespread and potentially significant because of the longevity and intensity of rain and the cumulative effect of successive heavy rain events dating back to the end of December, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
The Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District on Saturday observed floods and trees and reopened roadways in Sacramento, Calif., which declared a state of emergency
Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District crews were kept busy on Saturday, performing water rescues and responding to fallen trees on homes and cars, and to drivers whose vehicles became disabled after they drove through standing water, officials said.
Calling it “Stormageddon,” the Amador County Sheriff’s Office shared an image of cars up to their doorhandles in floodwaters and said there’s been reports of flooding, mudslides and trees blocking roadways.
Highway 50 was reopened just after midnight, hours after a section between Pollock Pines and Meyers was closed due to flooding from the American River, while another section was closed over Echo Summit for avalanche control work.
The California Department of Transportation said I-80 was partly closed near the Nevada line due to multiple spin outs.
In Sacramento County and adjacent areas, people were advised to stay home as wind gusts of up to 55 mph knocked over trees and covered roads with debris.
The county proclaimed a state of emergency, saying the atmospheric river has caused “significant transportation impacts, rising creek and river levels and flooding” in the Wilton area.
Travel could be difficult to impossible in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, where a winter storm Warning is in effect until 4 a.m. Sunday.
The Sierra Snow Lab recorded 24-hour snow totals of 29.9 inches, Bear Valley Ski Resort recorded 21 inches, Boreal Ski Resort received 40 inches, Sierra at Tahoe Ski Resort 42 inches and Soda Springs saw 40 inches, according to the Weather Service.
Over a foot of new snow fell at Mammoth Mountain’s Main Lodge Saturday, the ski resort said on Facebook, adding that work will take place across the mountain since all lifts were coated in ice and “avalanche danger is extremely high.”
At the Nevada State line and Colfax, CHP reported “dangerous and treacherous” driving conditions with dozens of vehicles stuck on the I-80 and county roads.
Dozens of drivers were rescued on New Year’s Eve along Interstate 80 near Lake Tahoe after cars spun out in the snow, the California Department of Transportation said. passenger vehicles with chains reopened the key route to the mountains on Sunday.
Aerial video from CNN affiliate KCRA showed cars submerged past their doorhandles in flood waters from Highway 99 and the Dillard Street area. Chris Schamber told the station that dozens of people had been rescued.
New Year’s Day of the Sacramento Grapes: Storm Prediction Center in Los Angeles, and Indications for Weather and Storms in Multiple Flares and Floods
With the region drying out on New Year’s Day and no rainfall expected during Monday’s Rose Parade in Pasadena, spectators began staking out their spots for the annual floral spectacle.
Another round of heavy showers was also forecast for Southern California on Tuesday or Wednesday, the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles-area office said.
There are at least two deaths related to the storm including a person who died in a submerged vehicle in Sacramento County on Saturday and a man who was killed by a fallen tree in Santa Cruz.
While the northern half of the storm will be all snow, the southern half will be heavy rain. We could see strong storms develop on Wednesday for places like Dallas, Little Rock, Shreveport and Memphis. The region has the potential for large hail, damaging winds and maybe even tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
An order to evacuate was issued for the Point Pleasant area and other rural areas of the county.
It is expected that the flooded Mokelumne River and Cosumnes River will move southwest toward I-5 in the middle of the night.
The new year provides a sobering message to people who are reeling from mudslides and floods: the situation may get worse before it gets better.
The office said that parts of the Russian River are now at particular flood risk, and that the third atmospheric river has hit the region. The NWS also says the storm’s high winds could inflict severe damage in areas where the soil is already saturated with rainwater.
California is going crazy: Storming the Pioneer Cabin Tree with a 12-th atmospheric river and launching a 12th atmospheric storm on Monday
According to Power Outage.us, more than 39,000 electricity accounts were without power in California and another 20,000 in Nevada at midday Monday.
On Sunday, Sacramento’s Mary Spencer-Gode and other residents gaped at the damage on their street, where the storm toppled a massive elm tree on New Year’s Eve.
“The wind was just going crazy,” she told Capital Public Radio. “We turned our TV off so we could hear it, and I was sitting in the kitchen, I heard a big ‘woosh’ and kind of the house moved.”
The area of high precipitation is moving away from the tropics and toward the higher latitudes before a cold front strikes, according to the senior forecaster for the NWS.
The precipitation can be extreme: a single atmospheric river “can carry more water than the Mississippi River at its mouth,” as NPR has reported. And forecasters have long warned that the systems’ winds are very dangerous. Five years ago, one of the storms toppled the legendary “Pioneer Cabin Tree” sequoia in Calaveras Big Trees State Park.
The storm this week will most likely come close to a type of storm called abomb cyclone, which rapidly becomes a storm at a rate of at least 24 megabars of pressure in 24 hours. The storm is expected to affect a large area of the California coast, from the San Francisco Bay Area to Southern California.
California is still reeling from an onslaught of powerful storms and destructive floods, but is bracing for a 12th atmospheric river that will bring a new round of heavy snow and rain to the state.
In Los Angeles and other areas, meteorologists warn that the storm isn’t over, even if people see patches of clear sky: “The morning will be the rainiest period,” reported forecaster Belen De Leon of NBC Los Angeles.
California’s Bomb Cyclone Awakens: Wildfires, Flooding, Deadlands, Power Outages, and Loss of Human Life
Along with flooding, the risk of mudslides is especially high in sites of recent wildfires, where there’s no longer enough ground cover to absorb and retain moisture.
The bomb cyclone hit the coast of California with heavy rains and high winds, although it did not cause much damage.
According to the National Weather Service, the storm could trigger more widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, fallen trees, major power outages, “immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life.”
Under a rapidly warming climate, this dramatic swing in periods of dry and wet weather can happen more often and become more intense. And scientists say the chances of these sudden transitions happening in California will become much higher, if humans continue to pump out planet-warming gases.
It’s all an example of how human-caused climate change is transforming water systems around the world, cranking up temperatures and making droughts more severe and frequent.
As wells run dry and reservoirs drain, Julie Kalansky, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, said these storms are desperately needed more than ever to alleviate the drought, despite the hazards they bring in some areas.
It is expected that the precipitation will increase in the coming months, which is expected to make a difference to the plight of the people in the western US. But, that could also mean more floods.
According to the latest US Drought Monitor, severe drought now only covers 8% of the state, with just over a third of the state remaining in some level of drought — the lowest amount in nearly three years.
“We anticipate that this may be one of the most challenging and impactful series of storms to touch down in California in the last five years,” said Nancy Ward, the new director of the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, at a late-morning news conference about the threat.
Weather experts warned people in their coverage areas on Wednesday to prepare for potential power outages, and for travel to be threatened by high winds, debris and felled trees and power lines.
Rainfall rates over one inch per hour are possible, which could unleash flooding and mudslides on an already saturated region hit with a different storm that brought deadly floods just last weekend.
California Bomb Cyclone Flooding Powerful Winds: A Facebook Page About the 2018 Santa Barbara Disaster and the First Supervisor in Santa Barbara County
The governor of California declared a statewide emergency earlier in the day, clearing the way for quick distribution of aid for those adversely impacted by the storm.
As the storm marched towards California, firefighters and rescue equipment were stationed near burn scar areas across seven counties, as well as five other counties with flooding concerns, state officials said.
Among the areas ordered to evacuate is Montecito, the site of a mudslide in 2018 that killed 23 people as mud and boulders the size of houses plowed down the Santa Barbara hillsides, splintering more than 100 homes and rupturing a gas main, according to the state’s Office of Emergency Services.
The first district supervisor in Santa Barbara County is urging everyone to comply with the evacuated area. “If you live in that red zone, the one thing that we should’ve learned these past five years is that it’s better to play it safe and to evacuate and comply with the order.”
The sheriff’s Facebook page states that officials in Monterey County set up emergency shelters as the storm got closer.
There was a rockfall that closed off a long stretch of coastal Highway 1 from Ragged Point in San Luis Obispo County to the south of Big Sur in Monterey County according to the California Department of Transportation.
Mayor London Breed said floods were inevitable as San Francisco was under a flood warning.
San Francisco fire officials said they rescued a trapped family Wednesday night, sharing images of a crew working to remove a large tree that was on top of a sedan.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/weather/california-bomb-cyclone-flooding-powerful-winds/index.html
A High-Redshift Glass Fall in Oakland, California, During the Bay Area Night of Oct. 7, 2009: A Marin County Emergency Management Team Reports
There were no injuries reported because glass fell from a downtown high rise in Fox Plaza. “It is unknown at this time if this is wind-related – highly possible though,” the San Francisco Fire Department said in a tweet.
Across the bay, Oakland city officials declared a local emergency Wednesday, bracing for storm damage on Oakland roads, flooding and potential threats to public safety.
California’s largest gas and electric utility company, Pacific Gas and Electric, reported the storm was damaging its equipment and causing widespread outages Wednesday evening.
Trees and power lines have been toppled, knocking out electricity and blocking roads and highways. In San Francisco, a tree fell directly on a car, briefly trapping a family inside (more on that below).
Hundreds of crews are staged around the Bay Area region, including some from Southern California Edison who are also aiding in the response, according to the vice president of the Bay Area region.
However, the storm is expected to saturate roads and down trees which may make it difficult for crews to access areas experiencing outages, Johnson said.
“This is definitely going to be ranked up there with one of the storms that I’m going to remember,” Ashley Helmetag, a meteorologist, said in a Facebook video on PG&E’s page.
The National Weather Service warned this week that the intense weather was caused by a “potent Pineapple Express,” an atmospheric river that brings moist air from the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Coast.
The Santa Rosa Firefighter in Sonoma County: Two deaths and one man killed in a road flood after a tree falls on a home in Fairfield
In downtown San Francisco, winds snapped a mature landscaping tree off at its base and dropped it onto a Honda sedan, trapping a family in their car next to the San Francisco Public Library’s main branch. Firefighters who used chainsaws to rescue the family reported that the occupants were OK.
“During the current storm, trees have fallen on power lines used by trains, so be aware of this,” the Bay Area Rapid Transit stated.
Two deaths have been linked to the bad weather. In Sonoma County, a tree fell on a home in the small town of Occidental Wednesday night, killing a child believed to be under 2 years old, according to local newspaper The Press Democrat.
About 50 miles east-southeast of that tragedy, a 19-year-old woman died after driving onto a partly flooded road in Fairfield, Calif., on Wednesday morning. The driver’s vehicle hydroplaned and hit a pole.
Emergency officials urge people to stay off the roads. There were many broken trees, power lines and other debris along the roads from the flash floods. At higher elevations, some highways have closed due to whiteout conditions.
The waves and high tides from the storm have damaged piers along the coastline in Santa Cruz County.
In Sausalito, rough conditions dislodged the city’s landmark bronze sea lion sculpture from its base; officials say it “is still attached by several bolts” and can be repaired.
What’s Happening in California During the ‘Storm Parade’ of El Nios and La Nias
“Meteorologists here sometimes talk about what they call the ‘storm parade,’ which refers to us having a series of atmospheric rivers back to back to back,” Stark said. “That’s really what’s happening right now: We’re looking at having another series of big storms this weekend, and even into next week.”
After much of California was lashed with heavy rain and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday that flooded roads, toppled trees and knocked out power to most across the state, daytime Friday will bring some relief before another storm moves in at night.
The emergency management director in San Francisco, Mary Ellen Carol, said some saw mudslides and flooding as of Wednesday evening.
Weather alerts beyond some that expired Friday are expected to be issued this weekend for places due for a mix of rain and snow. Here’s what’s forecast for millions:
A 40 mph wind can cause damage even when the ground is so saturated from a record-breaking week of rain.
The rainfall over the weekend brought renewed flood concerns for local streams, creeks, and rivers. The Colgan Creek, Mark West Creek, Green Valley Creek, and the Cosumnes River are all currently over flood stage, and are expected to do so in a few days.
El Niño and La Niña forecast patterns put out by the Climate Prediction Center give guidelines on what the overall forecast can be during a seasonal time period.
Marybeth Arcodia says that the Pacific Northwest and southern California are usually seen with wetter than normal conditions during a La Nia. “This is due to the jet stream being pushed farther north and having a wavier pattern. It’s not true
“Atmospheric rivers typically form during the winter months and can occur during El Niños or La Niñas,” Arcodia said, noting their strength, frequency, and landfall location can be influenced by the larger patterns in the Pacific.
Weather Forecasting for the Long-Term Future of the State, and the Patterns of Wet Weather in Reno, California, and San Francisco
Michael Tippett, a professor of physics and mathematics at Columbia University, points out that the forecast patterns are not meant to be used on a day-to-day forecast scale but rather the entire season as a whole. It is important to research the patterns.
There is an element of randomness, that is not explained by the patterns. “This might help us understand why one year is different than the other.”
State climatologist Michael Anderson told a news briefing late Saturday that officials were closely monitoring Monday’s incoming storm and another behind it and were keeping an eye on three other systems farther out in the Pacific.
The city’s communications infrastructure, cellular and internet, is underground so “as we get more inundation from the rain, we’re seeing more failure around those, what we call lifeline systems” for power and communication, said Carroll.
More than 15 million people in the state are at risk of getting excessive rain on Monday according to the prediction center. A Level 4 out of 4 “high risk” notice may become necessary for Monday if the forecast guidance continues to increase rainfall totals, the prediction center wrote in their discussion Sunday morning.
The weather service office in Reno said gusts may go as high as 45-50 mph, with gusts greater than 60 mph possible in wind prone areas. “Sierra crest wind gusts will likely approach 150+ mph as the strong subtropical jet moves overhead Monday. US-95 remains a big concern, especially for high profile vehicles Monday.”
As the storm pushes farther inland, “Localized areas of 5+ feet (of snow) possible along the Sierra crest west of Lake Tahoe. Waves up to 4 feet were added to the weather service.
There is high optimism that the pattern of wet weather will continue through the next couple of weeks, according to the weather service in San Francisco. It is not certain how much precipitation will fall, but we can say that the continued presence of saturated soils could pose a hazard into the third week of January.
The State Water Project’s Lake Oroville Before and After Disasters: A Million Million Dollars of Water for Powering Two Million Homes in California
The mega-drOUGHT that hit parts of the state caused Lake Oroville to lose almost all of its water supply.
This week, before-and-after photos show an incredible improvement at the dam, which now stands at 115% of the historical average, up from just 61% in February 2021.
The before images show a “bathtub ring” of dirt around the edge of the lake, marking how far the water levels had fallen. By late January, the after images showed the bathtub ring was underwater once again.
As a result of the uncertainty about the next two months, the water managers are making contingency plans to hold as much water supply as possible.
The reservoir plunged to just 24% of total capacity in 2021. The lake’s water level sat well below boat ramps and exposed intake pipes, which are used to send water to power the plant.
When operating at full capacity, the plant can power up to a half a million homes. According to data from the state, 23% of the state’s electricity was generated by hydroelectric power plants.
California state water officials decided at the end of January that it will increase allocations to 30% of requested water supplies this year.
The State Water Project’s two largest reservoirs — Lake Oroville and San Luis — gained a total of 1.62 million acre-feet of water, which is roughly enough water for 5.6 million households for an entire year. The amount of water needed for oneacre a foot deep is roughly 326,000 gallons.
It has taken more time to recover than it has to. These underground aquifers, which much of California’s Central Valley relies on, still have a long way to go before they are completely replenished from the prolonged, unrelenting drought.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/19/us/lake-oroville-before-and-after-storms-climate/index.html
The Denver-Sandwimming Colorado River Winter Snow and Snowstorm Forecast: Weather Forecast for Friday and Thursday, and Predictions for Southern Wyoming and Ohio Valley
The Department of Water Resources’ director, Karla Nemeth, told them during the February 1 survey that there was not much hope for more rain and snow.
The Colorado River feeds the two largest bodies of water in the country, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Record-low water levels in both lakes have triggered mandatory water cuts for some Western states in the last year. Lake Powell has hit a new record-low in this month, and Lake Mead has been just above that record set last year.
“Over the next two months, it is important that we still see periodic rain and snowstorms to keep an above average pace for our precipitation totals,” Mohr said.
Editor’s Note: A version of this article originally appeared in the weekly weather newsletter, the CNN Weather Brief, which is released every Monday. You can sign up to receive them every week and during storms.
Millions will be hit by a big winter storm this week that will cause a lot of problems from coast to coast with heavy snow, dangerous winds, and also some of the lowest temperatures of the season.
The storm is already showing signs of life along the West Coast, as snow and rain is already falling across the Pacific Northwest, adding to their already blockbuster snow season.
The National Weather Service office said traffic getting to and from Los Angeles would be impacted due to the amount of snow.
Blizzard warnings are in place for southern Wyoming, where nearly two feet of snow and winds gusting more than 70 mph will create blinding conditions. The weather service also warns of wind chills falling to 25 degrees below zero.
The second round will have problems on Wednesday and Thursday. Up to two feet of snow can be seen across the Midwest, along with 50 mph wind gusts. Travel will be nearly impossible during this time frame.
The warnings will be in effect through Saturday afternoon. The National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office had not issued a blizzard warning since 1989.
Chicago will be in for some icy weather on Thursday. Finding the location of ice in the Ohio Valley is difficult, even though it could be a problem. Stay tuned with the forecast if you live in these areas, because freezing rain and sleet could halt your travel plans and even cause power outages.
On Thursday, parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley are going to be as warm as 40 degrees above normal, according to the NWS.
This week will encompass the entire nation with wild weather, from buried under three feet of snow to basking in sunshine and record warmth.
Near the Great Lakes, there is snow that is falling at a rate of 1-2 inches an hour. It will have a large impact that will include major disruptions to travel, infrastructure, livestock and recreation.
Airports across the Midwest, including in Minneapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit have faced a plethora of cancellations. On Wednesday, more than 1,600 flights were canceled and an additional 5,200 were delayed. Thursday brought more of the same — more than 1,700 flights were canceled and almost 10,000 delayed as of Thursday morning, according to FlightAware.
Over 20 inches of snow and rain at Big Bear Lake, Southern California, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
High elevations at Big Bear Lake in Southern California saw between 20 to 40 inches of snow over the course of three days as of Friday evening, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency reported that many cars were stuck in the snow.
Atlanta was 81 degrees on Wednesday, an all-time record in February. The temperature in Washington, D.C., was 78 degrees on Wednesday, while New Orleans and Nashville both had temperatures of 83 degrees.
The National Weather Service said that the warm temperatures seen in the southern and mid-atlantic states were noteworthy. On Thursday, both Nashville, Tenn., and Richmond, Va., saw temperatures hit 85 and 83 degrees respectively.
On Friday, forecasters also urged mariners near the coast of the state’s San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties to “seek safe harbor immediately” — warning of severe thunderstorms that could produce sudden waterspouts, powerful enough to “easily overturn boats.” Small tornadoes can be seen on land in the two counties.
A freeze warning has been issued for the San Jose area and other parts of the region. The sub-freezing conditions will be especially dangerous to unsheltered populations, crops and unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Michigan experienced freezing rain and ice that was dangerous for livestock and infrastructure. Port Austin and Midland saw the most snow, with 8 inches and 8.9 inches respectively. High ice accretions were seen in the south, according to the National Weather Service.
There is a chance of some light snow in southeast Michigan. On Friday, the temperatures are going to be below freezing. Forecasters expect the weather to warm up by Sunday.
The Los Angeles region remains in a blizzard warning on Saturday as some areas are still dealing with heavy snow and record rain.
The National Weather Service said that snowy conditions at higher altitudes could be as much as a foot in some areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
“(We’ve) never seen this much snow up here,” Kihara told CNN on Friday. “We woke up to it. It started yesterday but picked up a lot overnight. Lots of trees are falling and all the roads around us are closed. The power has been out since Tuesday.
In addition to the snow, some Los Angeles-area roads turned into rivers on Friday after bouts of heavy rain, prompting the weather service to issue a flash flood warning.
Parts of southwestern California remain in a flood watch through Saturday evening, and San Diego is also expected to get up to 2.5 inches of precipitation.
Hundreds of thousands of people in the Midwest are still dealing with the aftermath of the same weather system that struck California earlier this week.
As of early Saturday afternoon, almost 400,000 customers in Michigan were without power. Consumers Energy and DTE hope to have the lights back on by Sunday for most of their customers.
DTE, one of Michigan’s largest electric providers, is restoring power to stricken areas but cautioned it will not be able to return service to most customers before Sunday.
Highway Patrol Observations of the Wisconsin Snowfalls: “They’re all there,” said Allison Rinker, M.M.P., a State Highway Patrol Spotlight
Crews in Wyoming were in search-and-rescue mode after more than 40 inches of snow fell in the southern parts of the state over the course of several days and motorists were trapped in heavy snow, the state highway patrol said on Twitter.
In Minnesota, Minneapolis officials declared a one-day snow emergency Friday due to heavy snow, and city crews have been plowing and treating streets. The city was hammered with more than 13 inches in a three-day period this week.
The Massachusetts State Police said on their account that the pileup on the Massachusetts Turnpike was likely caused by icy conditions in New England.
The Ventura County area had up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain, but the weather service said that flooding was no longer a threat.
Brian Wheeler, a spokesman for Consumers Energy, said half an inch (1.27 centimeters) of ice weighed down some power lines — equivalent to the weight of a baby grand piano.
Allison Rinker used a borrowed generator to keep her house warm on the day after it was dark and cold for two nights.
“We were all surviving, but spirits were low on the second day,” she said. It was like a complete flip in attitude when we were able to have a few lights running.
She feared that the ice falling from the trees would break her window when she heard it was melting. Half of the trees fell down, there was just tree limbs everywhere. The destruction is insane.”
Low Pressure Rainfalls in Southern Nevada and across the Northern Hemisphere, and the Los Padres National Forest, California, Weather Service said Saturday morning
The weather service said the low-pressure system was expected to bring widespread rain and snow in southern Nevada by Saturday and across northwest Arizona by Sunday.
Yet the cold weather blasting the North and West avoided the southern states, leading to wild temperatures differences. The high temperature for the U.S. was 93 degrees Fahrenheit (34 degrees Celsius) at Falcon Lake, Texas, while the low was minus 35 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 Celsius) near Huntley, Montana.
Much of Portland was shut down with icy roads not expected to thaw until Saturday after the city’s second-heaviest snowfall on record this week: nearly 11 inches (28 centimeters).
Tim Varner sat huddled with blankets in a Portland storefront doorway shielding him from some of the wind, ice and snow. Local officials opened six overnight shelters but the 57-year-old, who has been homeless for two decades, said it was too hard to push a shopping cart containing his belongings to reach one.
“It’s impossible,” he said. “The snow gets built up on the wheels of your cart and then you find slippery spots and can’t get no traction. So you’re stuck.”
More than four inches of rain was recorded in Holy Jim Canyon, Lower Henshaw Dam, Mount Woodson and Carlsbad Airport, among other places.
The storm made travel difficult in some areas. In Los Padres National Forest, State Route 33 was closed due to rock slides and erosion from this and previous storms, according to video from the California Department of Transportation.
The New Trend in Atmospheric River Family Storms: A Study of the First Two Hundred Years of Atlantic Storms and Their Impact on Rural and Urban Areas
The new study uses computer models to assess Atlantic storms going back to 1949, and to peer into the future to see what storms will look like in 2100. The authors, climate scientists at Princeton University, found that the flood and wind risk posed by storms has steadily increased.
Lin and her colleagues discovered a new trend. Today it is unlikely that two damaging storms will hit the same place in quick succession, although such disasters got slightly more likely over the second half of the twentieth century.
When hurricanes do happen, like when Hurricane Rita hit the Gulf Coast in 2005, Hurricanes Harvey and Maria hit Puerto Rico, Florida and Texas in a single year, and then Hurricane Ivan in 2004, it’s deadly.
That’s bad news for multiple reasons. “Communities need to recover from disasters and bounce back,” says Lin. If people are being hit by flooding and wind damage over and over, there’s less time to recover.
It could also overwhelm the government’s emergency response. Millions of people were left waiting for shelter and food in the aftermath of three major storms when the Federal Emergency Management Agency struggled to respond.
“The devastation is indescribable,” Tulare County farmer Brandon Mendonsa told CNN affiliate KFSN. “The water is still coming – this is far from being done.”
It is considered to be at its lowest level since August 2020, but it is expected to end entirely in California and the Great Basin.
Many welcomed this winter’s heavy rain and snow since it was so desperately needed to replenish the state’s severely drained reservoirs and depleted groundwater.
A scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles said there’s a lot of storms this winter. It is very rare, no matter how you slice it.
Hecht said this year has already outpaced the state’s average annual number of atmospheric rivers. Many of them came in a rapid series of storms in early January.
He said that moderate storms typically bring beneficial precipitation to the state. Meanwhile, the high-end atmospheric rivers are the big rain and snow producers, which lead to more severe impacts.
“We typically refer to these successive types of atmospheric rivers as ‘AR families,’” Hecht told CNN. “While AR families are not all that uncommon, we don’t see them every year and the stretch of nine we had around the turn of the New Year was a more active family than we typically see.”
“As much as folks feel like it’s been an unrelenting winter, we actually have gotten some at least weeklong breaks and, in some cases, multi-weeklong breaks in between these sequences,” he said. The level of flooding and the damage in California would be higher had this winter not happened, because there was not a break during the storm cycles.
