This November, voters in some states will be able to decide whether or not to legalise recreational marijuana

Five states have marijuana legalization on the ballot: Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota (seemingly soon after the 2020 ballot measure)

I’m not really sure why it took so long. Democratic voters are overwhelmingly for marijuana legalization, and marijuana tends to be a political winner when it appears on the ballot.

This year, marijuana legalization is on the ballot in five states: Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota (where state courts nullified the results of the 2020 legalization ballot measure). I went through the data available for these states. It suggests the marijuana legalization measures are favored to pass at this point in Arkansas, Maryland and Missouri. The data is not certain in the Dakotas.

On an issue such as building a wall along the US-Mexico border, the partisan gap is closer to 80 points instead of 20 to 30 points as it is with marijuana.

We see it when we look at marijuana ballot measures. It passed in states with a lot of college-educated people like Colorado and Massachusetts. It has also been legalized via the ballot in states where far fewer voters have college degrees, such as Michigan and Nevada.

It has passed in the swing state of Maine with the greatest proportion of White voters, and in the state with the lowest proportion of White voters. Nevada has the highest percentage of Hispanic residents in the country. A state with high proportions of black voters, Maryland, appears to be all but assured of passage this year according to the polling.

Marijuana possession, use and distribution would be legalized according to the ballot measure. If passed, marijuana possession of up to an ounce would be legal. The possession of marijuana paraphernalia would be legalized.

Melissa Fults, a board member of the Arkansas chapter for the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, known as NORML, has expressed dismay about the proposed amendment because she says it would create a “huge monopoly” for Arkansas’ cultivators and retailers. The initiative will create twelve more growth facility licenses and 40 more adult-use dispensary licenses to join the eighty already given to existing medical dispensaries.

The Family Council Action Committee, which is typically on the opposite side of NORML when it comes to relaxing marijuana laws, also voiced concerns over proposed regulation.

The petition also states that all cannabis will be tested in a facility “for the potency of products and the presence of pesticides” and that cannabis businesses will be subject to random inspection.

Governor Noem, a Republican who championed the process of nullification if it was passed on the basis of constitutionality, has indicated to CNN that she would implement it if it was passed again.

The review of how marijuana is schedule under federal law, the first step towards potentially easing its federal classification, was ordered by Biden.

Under the 1970 Controlled Substances Act, marijuana is listed on Schedule 1, with drugs like heroin and LSD, meaning it has “no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.” Its benefits have become more appreciated in recent years.

Adults 21 and over would be able to buy marijuana if there is a “yes” vote. It would also allow possession of up to 1 ounce of marijuana and the growth of up to six mature marijuana plants and up to six seedlings.

The measure supporters claim will bring in new tax revenue. Vicente Sederberg and the Oklahoma Cannabis Industry Association completed an economic analysis on the Yes on 820 campaign in favor of recreational marijuana legalization. Over four years, the state could make $821 million in medical and recreational taxes, with $434 million from the new recreational tax.

Polling by Gallup shows that a majority of Republicans now support legalization, after decades of opposing the idea, reflecting a broader shift in the population.

Where do we stand in the medicinal and recreational cannabis legal network? Auxier’s perspective on a moving forward for legalization of opiates

But many provisions for medical and recreational use exist in gray areas. States have written a spectrum of laws, from fully legal markets collecting tax revenues to carve-outs for specific products.

That piecemeal legal network is the product of incremental advancements on a statewide level, as views on the drug have moderated over the past 27 years.

“If there was a tipping point that would influence the federal government or Congress to prioritize this issue, we’ve clearly passed whatever that tipping point may have been quite some time ago,” said Paul Armentano, deputy director of NORML.

Moving forward, however, more and more states could be legalizing through the work of their state legislatures, rather than with ballot initiatives, Armentano said. He noted that the number of states that can still make changes through the electorate is limited.

Richard Auxier, senior policy associate with the Tax Policy Center, said the way states do this can either be fast or slow. The efficiency of states like Arizona and Missouri in getting their legal markets established shows that, “if you want to, you can go from zero to 60, real quick,” Auxier said.