British officials stress that there is a threat from China
Mr. Fleming: China’s Challenge to the Rule of Laws in the Era of the Implications for the Free and Open International System
But Mr. Fleming’s warning is another reminder of the speed at which the Western allies have come to view themselves as in direct competition, and sometimes in conflict, with both of the world’s other major nuclear superpowers. Of the two, he clearly regards Russia as the more manageable.
“China firmly opposes the United States’ generalization of the concept of national security, abuse of state power, and unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies,” she told reporters, adding that such a move would “violate international economic and trade rules.”
Mr. Fleming’s warnings about the strategies behind China’s investment in new technologies, and its effort to create “client economies and governments,” sound much like speeches given by his American counterparts for the past five or more years. Before the opening of a Communist Party congress on Sunday in Beijing, he gave a speech, which is expected to be filled with announcements about who will be the country’s top leader.
Mr. Fleming said that in the case of China, this could be “the sliding-doors moment in history,” in which the United States and its allies may soon discover that they are too far behind in a series of critical technologies to maintain a military or technological edge over Beijing.
He said China could benefit from the development of a central bank digital currency that could be used to track transactions by skirting international sanctions in Russia. If China moves against Taiwan, the US and its allies will step up their efforts to block it from taking advantage of its economic power.
“Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown,” the document reads. “(China), by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective.”
US officials have expressed concern that those moves could be precursors to even more aggressive steps by China in the coming months meant to assert its authority over the island. Under Biden, the US has sent defensive weapons to Taiwan it hopes will create a massive stockpile in the event China moves on the island.
“The volume, the number of Chinese intercepts at sea and in the air have increased significantly over five years,” Milley said, though he offered no further details on the figure.
Public statements from both sides also appeared to indicate a basic foundation that each recognize the critical nature of their rivalry, and both want to ensure that it doesn’t boil over into a war, at least yet. They are looking at reopening more regular conversations with China, after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit next year. Since Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, such exchanges have been suspended, with China launching a huge military operation to cut off Taiwan.
The US military thinks a Pelosi trip could pose a security risk, said President Joe Biden. The Pentagon has declined to say if officials have directly briefed the California Democrat, but officials say worries include China establishing a no-fly zone or increasing unsafe intercepts of US and allied ships and aircraft in the Pacific region.
The aim is to make sure there is a steady look at the activity of the Chinese military. Interactions between the two militaries are so sensitive that incidents are often not made public. The Pentagon hasn’t acknowledged an incident in which a US C-130 transport plane had an encounter with Chinese aircraft.
In February, the Australian government said that a Chinese navy ship used a laser to light up an Australian Air Force jet, which was a serious safety incident.
The Australian Defence Force strongly condemns unsafe military conduct and said that acts like this have the potential to endanger lives. The pilots targeted by laser attacks have had various effects on their vision and even permanent blindness.
The Inflationary War in Asia: The Case for a Demonstration of Freedom, Dignity, and Security in the 21st Century
“Indo-Pacific countries shouldn’t face political intimidation, economic coercion, or harassment by maritime militias,” Austin said in a keynote speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defense conference.
According to the white paper, the development of China’s national defense is meant to meet its rightful security needs and contribution to the growth of the world’s peaceful forces. China will not attempt to seek a sphere of influence or threaten any other country.
Earlier this month, a US Navy warship challenged Chinese claims to disputed islands in the South China Sea, the US 7th Fleet said in a statement – the second operation of its kind this week.
While he works to avoid a Cold War-style standoff, Biden is laying out his vision of a world in which America and its allies are increasingly in competition with China, even as he writes the pillars of his foreign policy.
The speech the president delivered was tense at a time when the United States is locked in confrontations with China and Russia. Those two nuclear superpowers have tightened their relationship in a new age of great power politics that Biden sees as a fight between democracy and tyranny. Biden referred to the invasion ofUkraine as a test for the ages, a test for America, and an example of how America is trying to work for more freedom, dignity, and peace.
He said that those who don’t share his vision for a world that is free, open, and secure will not leave the future vulnerable. There is no nation better positioned to lead in this time of global economic uncertainty than the United States of America.
A bloc of aggressively anti-Western autocracies is precisely what Xi and Putin were launching that day in February. Beijing and Moscow sought to replace the rule of law with “the rule of the strongest,” warned European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“This decisive decade is critical both for defining the terms of competition, particular with the (People’s Republic of China), and for getting ahead of massive challenges that if we lose the time this decade we will not be able to keep pace with,” he said.
On Sunday, when he presented himself to a congress of China’s ruling elite as the leader whose policies had saved the nation from the ravages of the pandemic, he wanted to assure them that he is focused on securing China’s rise.
He praised the party and warned that the nation must unite behind it to cope with a world he depicted as becoming more hostile. He distrusted the world’s other great power, despite not mentioning the United States by name.
Mr. Xi reminded everyone of dangers in the midst of peace. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”
The domestic debate about how to handle China policy will be hampered due to the growing hostility towards China in Washington which many top leaders see as arising out of China’s aggressive foreign policy. Currently, the irresistible political momentum is for politicians to one-up one another in showing they are tough on Beijing. The Republicans condemned Biden over his balloon response because of his anti-China fervor, showing how little can be done to ease tensions.
The long-term risk is that uncontrolled competition will fuel overextension abroad, where the impulse to counter every potential threat or challenge by the other makes it difficult to focus resources and attention on achieving positive priorities and outcomes. In the United States, escalated competition could exacerbate domestic divisions and undermine democracy. Already, increased xenophobia and anti-Asian violence in America, along with ramped-up efforts to protect research security, have led more than 60 percent of Chinese-born scientists working in the United States — including naturalized citizens and permanent residents — to consider leaving the country.
China is watching closely, too. Xi recently appointed a new slate of top military leaders from China’s Eastern Theater Command, which encompasses Taiwan, indicating that going forward, the island is a priority for China’s fighting forces. Last week, he told the military to “focus all its energy on fighting.”
Xi Jinping is expected to break longstanding tradition in the coming days and secure a third term as China’s president, putting the country on a new course that could increase tensions with the U.S.
“The U.S. claims it wants to ‘compete to win’ with China, and does not seek conflict. But in fact, the so-called ‘competition’ by the U.S. is all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death,” Qin said.
The China-U.S. Correspondence in a “Fragile” Xi’s Dynamical and Technological Era
She expects key positions in the national security and foreign policy of Xi to be filled by his political loyalists.
There are people within the government who do not believe that China’s policies toward the U.S. are the best, Sun said, but she predicts that those voices will be “eliminated from within the bureaucracy,” leaving China without a system of checks and balances.
While these are two specific issues, there’s a larger one that plays into the overall relationship: the asymmetrical views both countries have of the relationship. The US tries to look at issues by issue while China looks at all issues as Connected, with action needed on certain issues before talking about others, said Li.
Li said that perception and actions from the U.S. have led to a catch-22 situation.
“When the U.S. says it wants to ‘install guardrails and have ‘no conflict’ in China-U.S. relations, it really means that the U.S. requires China not to fight back when hit or scolded, but this cannot be done!” He said it.
Meanwhile, the tech industry has become a larger priority for China, especially as the country moves toward the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by the centennial of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, in which Xi aims to make China a modern socialist country.
It is likely that there will be more competition between technological capabilities between supply chains because of this response from Washington and China’s desire to increase its self-reliance.
That’s led to what Li said is essentially an impasse. But that doesn’t mean progress can’t happen, only that achieving it will test both countries in the years to come.
The Second Face-to-Face Meeting between the U.S. and China’s Xi-Macaulay Superpowers
The leaders of two superpowers met face-to-face and unmasked on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday evening. In a substantial meeting, they touched on the war in Ukraine, military tension in the Taiwan Strait and North Korean missile tests.
They continued to meet in-person after Xi took power. The last time they met was during Xi’s first US visit as China’s top leader.
Today, trust is running low, the rhetoric is increasingly antagonistic and disputes continue to fester in areas including trade, technology, security and ideology.
There is not going to be a joint statement here. A senior U.S. official told reporters this week that the meeting was not being driven by deliverables. The president believes it is important to build a floor for the relationship and make sure there are rules of the road that guide our competition.
Today’s meeting was the first face-to-face exchange between the two since Biden became president. Both leaders strengthened their political positions at home and it happened after that.
“If the result of this meeting is to put the relationship back on a more diplomatic plane, in which instead of beating each other up they can begin a dialogue on the kind of issues that need to be dealt with, I think this meeting could very well be pivotal,” Panetta told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics.”
Biden said in a news conference that he wants to lay out what each of our red lines are when he sits down with Putin, but experts say it might not be as simple as it sounds.
In July, when Nancy Pelosi was preparing to visit Taiwan with her congressional delegation, Xi warned the US president against overstepping: ” Those who play with fire will perish by it.”
Taiwan’s Cold War: The U.S. Does not Want a Peaceful Reunification, but China Needs to Embrace It
The Communist Party chief repeated that he wanted China to have “peaceful reunification”, but also said that the use of force remains an option.
Biden will want to make sure that the United States does not support Taiwan independence and that Washington’s long-standing policy regarding Taiwan hasn’t changed. Although the Republican Party is expected to take control of the House of Representatives after the mid-year elections, analysts say that President Xi will likely continue to be skeptical.
The Biden administration has repeatedly said it intends to compete with China and wants dialogue to put “guardrails” around the relationship, so that it does not veer into conflict. The U.S. demands were not reasonable.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has said he would like to visit Taiwan if he becomes majority leader. Another Chinese expert on international relations warns of the consequences of such a move.
A top US State Department official said Thursday that the Biden administration would be putting “constraints” on Chinese companies that are involved in evading sanctions.
Chris Miller, author of the recently published Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, says that the US imposed tough export controls on the Soviet Union during the Cold War. “There’s really a lot of similarities, to be honest.”
China has challenged a move by the United States to block sales of advanced computer chips and chip-making equipment to Chinese companies by launching a trade dispute at the World Trade Organization, calling the measures “trade protectionism.”
In China’s case, enforcing the restrictions could be difficult, though. Microchips are small and easy to smuggle across borders. Also, total enforcement would require other countries that are part of the complex semiconductors supply chain to be on board, and that’s a work in progress.
Beijing has voiced opposition to the move and officials frequently decry Washington’s “Cold War zero-sum mentality.” China has not yet responded to the situation. Analysts say that may be because the controls were announced at an awkward time for Chinese policy makers, days before a leadership reshuffle at the twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress.
The leaders of China and the US expressed openness to restoring channels of communication during their meeting in Indonesia on Monday.
Notably, neither country said anything about seeking a new date for Mr. Blinken’s trip. Mr. Blinken also told NBC that he had spoken “very clearly and very directly” to Mr. Wang about the balloon incident, and that there had been “no apology” from Mr. Wang during the meeting. It was another reminder that Chinese-U.S. relations have fallen to perhaps their lowest point since Richard Nixon opened a channel of communication to China’s leadership a half-century ago.
He believes that there is a window of opportunity now that China’s Party Congress and the US’s midterm elections are over.
Confidence is the Only Way to Rebuild a Mutual Understanding between the U.S. and China: A View from the Moments of the Group of 20 Summit
Nobody should expect a lot from this summit. A sincere discussion may help deepen understanding between the two leaders, he says — but that’s it.
Medeiros, the former U.S. official, says the current moment is dangerous — and in some ways, similar to the 1950s and early 1960s, when mistrust grew between the U.S. and the Soviet Union and they each “tested and probed” each others’ boundaries.
“After the Cuban Missile Crisis, both sides, because of that incredibly searing experience, internalized the belief that strategic restraint, often institutionalized through things like arms control agreements, was in their mutual interests,” he says.
“The trajectory of the relationship is nothing but positive, and it’s overwhelmingly in the mutual interest of both our countries,” Biden said in 2011 when, as vice president, he visited Beijing to build a personal relationship with China’s then leader-in-waiting.
The leaders are going to have a face-to-face meeting at the Group of 20 summit on Monday in Indonesia. The mood in the room may not be as cheerful as the rest of the area.
Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Biden said that the results allowed him to go into Monday with a stronger hand. “I know I’m coming in stronger,” he told reporters.
And as the US and its allies reaffirm their support for Ukraine and stepped up military aid, Beijing’s deepening partnership with Moscow has raised alarms in Western capitals – despite China’s public charm offensive in Europe to present itself as a negotiator of peace.
The White House official said the talks Biden wants to use to build a floor for the relationship would prevent it from falling into open conflict. The US official stated that the main objective of the sit- down is not to reach agreements or deliverables, but to learn more about each other’s priorities and reduce misconception.
Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, told reporters Saturday on Air Force One that the meeting is not expected to result in any major breakthrough in the relationship.
Dialogue between the U.S. and China in the wake of Beijing’s zero-covid border restrictions: A rare opportunity for China to build a better world
“The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. A senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington stated that the US believes China has a goal of making the world safer for authoritarian states and pushing the US out of Asia.
Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.
“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. Kennedy said the other side was not likely to make any significant changes. All of those things reduce the chance of significant adjustments.
But experts say the very fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is itself a positive development. Dialogue is crucial to reducing risks ofmisunderstanding and miscalculation when suspicions are running deep and tensions are high.
I would love to fly over the wall to see that conversation, because I don’t think China has been very specific about what its red lines are. Kennedy of CSIS thinks that both sides have not explained what positive rewards other side would have from staying within the red lines.
The leaders of the two sides are sitting in the same room and it’s expected to be Taiwan that tops their agenda. In a sign of the sensitivity of the matter, barbs have already been traded.
“In neutrality, China should talk to both sides: Russia and Ukraine, and now we can see China is not talking to Ukraine,” she said, noting that Kyiv was not consulted before the release of the paper.
Nor is his assessment for climate cooperation any rosier. “China and the US can find many common interests on this, but when it comes to how to deal with climate change specifically, it always leads to antagonism on policies and rivalry over ideology and global influence,” Shi said.
Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.
Do I think he’s willing to compromise on certain issues? Yes,” Biden told reporters afterward about his meeting with Xi. “We didn’t tolerate each other’s disagreement about places where we disagreed.”
The “Taiwan question”: What the United States had to say about Taiwan, their independence, and the environment in the coming era
The United States acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China, but it never officially recognizes the communist party’s claim to the self-governing island. In the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the US gives it defensive weapons but has not stated whether it would intervene in the event of a military victory.
China regards the “Taiwan question” an internal matter. It is “at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” wrote Hua, the spokesperson, on Twitter after the meeting ended.
“We agree with what we signed on to a long time ago. Taiwan makes their own decisions about their independence because of ‘one China’ policy. We are not moving – we’re not encouraging their being independent. … He said that it was their decision.
The summit in Indonesia yielded two important outcomes, according to the US: A joint position that Russia must not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and an expected resumption of talks on climate between American and Chinese negotiators, a boost for the COP 27 global climate conference in Egypt.
The Pacific region is on edge because of the destabilizing missile and nuclear activity of North Korea, which Biden pointed to as a cause of concern for Beijing.
That the world’s two most powerful leaders had not been addressing these issues together in recent months shows how the entire world suffers when Washington and Beijing are as deeply estranged as they’ve been this year.
The Asia-Pacific Correlations: Iran vs. Russia, the United States, and the Cooperation Between the U.S. and China
Leon Panetta is a former White House chief of staff, CIA chief and defense secretary who dealt with US-China relations for decades.
But at the summit in Bali, Indonesia, it was clear that while both sides want to avoid a clash now, their goals – China wants to be the preeminent Asian and potentially global power, as does the US – remain fundamentally incompatible.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that neither side should try to change or subvert the other’s system.
Biden spoke publicly about the United States’ willingness to engage in climate talks during a very opportune time for the Egypt climate summit. A White House statement said that the two leaders had agreed to strengthen their communication and deepen their work on climate change, global macroeconomic stability, debt relief, health security and global food security.
To do this, we need to keep Russia from winning in Ukrainian, as well as keep Moscow and Beijing apart, and counteract China’s efforts to forge stronger bonds with Iran.
Both leaders have been courting autocratic regimes. Russia is seeking armaments for its floundering war in Ukraine, and China is hard at work trying to become the center of a new alliance to counter the West. The project has faltered; it is far from a resounding success. It’s a work in progress.
The State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also visit China in person sometime early next year to follow up on the Xi-Biden meeting.
“The world is big enough for the two countries to develop themselves and prosper together,” tweeted Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesperson who accompanied Xi in his meeting with Biden.
But the president objected to Beijing’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive” Chinese actions in the waters around Taiwan, according to the White House readout, adding such behaviors “undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, and jeopardize global prosperity.”
Beijing’s claim to neutrality has been severely undermined by its refusal to acknowledge the nature of the conflict – it has so far avoided calling it an “invasion” – and its diplomatic and economic support for Moscow.
The “bottom lines” that China wanted the US to agree to were: to not interfere in the country’s development and to respect China’s claims.
China and the Hang Seng: Confidence from the G20 Summit? Trade tensions boosted by Chinese President Hu Jintao
Biden came to the G20 in a better spot due to the Democrats controlling the Senate but he’s up for reelection in two years.
The gathering could lay the groundwork to strengthen ties between the nations of the world. The stock markets in mainland and Hong Kong were boosted on Tuesday by the news that Chinese President Hu Jintao was going to visit.
The two countries should strengthen strategic coordination and inject more stability into the world according to a message from the two leaders that was reported by the Chinese state media.
Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said the goal of the meeting was to “build a floor” under declining relations between Beijing and Washington.
Ken Cheung said that the meeting was a positive sign that both sides were interested in finding common ground.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
(HSI) Index rallied nearly 4% on Tuesday, on track to record a third straight day of gains. The index, boosted by China’s latest policy shift towards a gradual reopening of borders and a sweeping rescue package for the ailing property sector, has soared 14% since last Thursday.
Chinese technology shares, which had been hammered by a regulatory crackdown at home and rising geopolitical tension abroad, led markets higher on Tuesday. In Hong Kong, shares of bothAlibaba and Tencent rose by over 10%.
Xi and the US: Singapore, the Netherlands, South Korea and Australia after the G20 G20 summit in April 2019: After a five day meeting, Biden again reiterated his position on Taiwan
They said Biden’s reiteration of the US position on Taiwan was helpful as wasXi’s comment against the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
“This was far more progress than we, or indeed most commentators had expected, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to have been a fairly irrelevant G20 summit,” the ING analysts said.
After a three hour meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday, China’s leader will be talking to leaders from Australia, France, the Netherlands and South Korea on Tuesday.
In a Chinese readout of his meeting with Biden, Xi described his country’s system of governance as “Chinese-style democracy,” in an apparent signal to US allies that ideological differences should not become an unbridgeable divide in their relations with Beijing.
The meeting between the Chinese leader and French President took place before the opening of the G20 summit so both leaders could be present.
The talks, which lasted for 43 minutes according to the French Presidency, saw Xi reiterate his support for a ceasefire and peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.
A readout from the French Presidency said the two leaders “reaffirmed their firm position on preventing the use of nuclear weapons” in the war in Ukraine – a line that was not included in the Chinese readout.
France, like other European countries, has hardened its position on China in recent years, increasingly viewing the country as a competitor and security concern.
For the most part of the Pandemic, the only thing that Xi had to do was stay within China, rather than travel overseas.
As the case with the meeting between Xi and Biden, few in Australia expect the meeting between Xi and Albanese can completely reset the two countries’ strained relations.
The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.
The United States and China’s Trade Dispatch: Albanese, Lee, and the CEO of an Industry Co-operation Consortium against the US Chip Sanctions
Announcing his meeting with Xi after arriving in Bali on Monday, Albanese said having the meeting alone is a “successful outcome,” pointing to the lack of dialogue at the top level for years.
“It is not in Australia’s interest to not have dialogue with our major trading partners,” he told reporters, adding that there are no preconditions for the meeting.
“Core Chinese objectives such as its South China Sea, Taiwan and South Pacific policies are fundamentally at odds with Australia’s core interests,” said Australian policy expert John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington and former national security adviser to the Australian government.
“It may be a diplomatic reset of some sorts but not one in substance where both sides begin to genuinely approach each other in good faith and a preparedness to compromise,” Lee added.
The country’s commerce ministry filed a formal complaint against the United States with the WTO on Monday, according to a statement. The trade body has a way for resolving disputes between the two countries.
“China’s filing of a lawsuit at the WTO is to resolve China’s concerns through legal means and is a necessary way to defend its legitimate rights and interests,” the ministry said.
The US move is threatening global supply chain stability and is a typical practice of trade protection. The complaint is the first action China has taken at the global trade body against the US chip sanctions.
In November 2018, just months after Washington hit Chinese telecoms giant ZTE Corp with an export ban, the Chinese government set up an industry alliance of companies and research institutes as part of efforts to design advanced chips. The group’s focus is on developing Risc-V, an open-source chip design architecture that has increasingly become a rival to Softbank
(SFTBF)’s Arm, the current global leader. The Chinese Academy of Sciences is a member of the consortium.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a frequent user of social media and the China Program at the Stimson Center: China’s Diplomacy Comes at a Times Square
The appointment, which was announced Friday, comes as Beijing’s relations with Washington continue to show strain over a range of issues from trade to Taiwan. Wang Yi was replaced as politburo member of the ruling Communist Party in October and is now expected to continue to work in foreign policy.
A trusted aide to China’s top leader, the man with over two million followers is an active user of the social networking site. The minister is 56 years old and will be one of the youngest foreign ministers in the history of China.
In solving common challenges, China’s diplomacy will offer “Chinese wisdom, Chinese initiatives and Chinese strength,” Qin said in his first statement as foreign minister.
The director of the China Program at the Stimson Center says that the new face of China’s diplomacy has a to-do list including U.S.-China relations and Beijing’s partnership with Moscow.
Asked by a foreign reporter in 2008 about Guns N’ Roses’ album “Chinese Democracy,” which Chinese state media called a “venomous attack” on the nation, Qin chided the journalist: “Many people don’t like this kind of music because it’s too raucous and noisy.” He said he thought you were a mature adult.
The university said he “never skirted around a question” and his attitude was clear-cut when he was promoted to a vice minister.
Qin was first assigned to work for the Beijing bureau of the United Press International, a U.S. news agency, after joining China’s foreign ministry. Non-Chinese news outlets could not directly employ Chinese nationals, so they had to get the permission of the authorities.
Later, as a diplomat, he cultivated a specialization in Western European affairs, serving twice in the Chinese embassy in London in the 2000s – first, as a third and second secretary, and later as a minister.
The U.S. description of the meeting, which resumed diplomatic contact between Washington and Beijing after it broke down over the balloon episode, said nothing about how the Chinese official, Wang Yi, responded. But a brief summary on official Chinese state media described an equally sharp exchange.
Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.
After a tumultuous end to a momentous and challenging year, China heads into 2023 with a great deal of uncertainty – and potentially a glimpse of light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.
Beijing’s Covid restrictions have put China out of sync with the rest of the world. Three years of lockdowns and border curbs have disrupted supply chains, damaged international businesses, and hurt flows of trade and investment between China and other countries.
Its tightly-sealed borders are gradually opening up, and Chinese tourists are eager to explore the world again, but some countries appear cautious to receive them, imposing new requirements for a negative Covid test before travel. How quickly global visitors will return to China is a question.
In his nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech, President Donald Trump said that the country had entered a new phase of Covid response. “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”
Xi, who recently reemerged on the world stage after securing a third term in power, has signaled he hopes to mend frayed relations with the West, but his nationalist agenda and “no-limits friendship” with Russia is likely to complicate matters.
China’s pandemic outlook after the first results of the Intl-Hnk-mic study last month and its prospects for 2020
The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.
The country’s fragile heath system is scrambling to cope: fever and cold medicines are hard to find, hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors and nurses are stretched to the limit, while crematoriums are struggling to keep up with an influx of bodies.
And experts warn the worst is yet to come. The outbreak has a peak in some major metropolitan areas like Beijing, but less developed cities are still bracing for more infections.
The outlook is grim. If China doesn’t roll out booster shots and drugs fast enough the death toll could be much higher.
Many people are reluctant to use the government’s booster campaign for the elderly because of their concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require time and effort when the country’s medical workers are stretched thin.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/china/china-2023-lookahead-intl-hnk-mic/index.html
Covid epoch of growth, economic development, and tourism: China looks ahead in the next ten years intl hik-mic
There will be a boost to the economies that rely on Chinese demand if China continues to grow. There will be more international travel and production. But rising demand will also drive up prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.
Bo Zhuang, senior analyst at the Boston-based investment firm that works with countries in the EU, believes that China is not prepared to deal with Covid.
The economy is expected to recover after March. In a recent research report, HSBC economists projected a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, but 5% growth for 2023.
Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.
Though some residents voiced concern online about the rapid loosening of restrictions during the outbreak, many more are eagerly planning trips abroad – travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.
Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.
Some countries have offered a warm welcome back, with foreign embassies and tourism departments posting invitations to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. But others are more cautious, with many countries imposing new testing requirements for travelers coming from China and its territories.
Many health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions for being ineffective and alarmist, with the risk of inciting furtherracism and xenophobia, despite the officials from these countries pointing out the risk of new variants emerging from China.
As China emerges from its self-imposed isolation, all eyes are on whether it will be able to repair its reputation and relations that soured during the pandemic.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/china/china-2023-lookahead-intl-hnk-mic/index.html
The U.S. Needs a Red Line to Avoid War with respect to Taiwan: A State-of-the-Art Report from Jake Sullivan
The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.
Mr. Wang also met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany on the sidelines of the Munich conference on Saturday, and afterward, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said on Twitter that China was “ready to fully resume exchanges with Germany and other European countries in various fields.”
In the new year, tensions may again flare over Taiwan, technological containment, as well as China’s support for Russia – which Xi underlined during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30.
The director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center said that the war affected China’s interest in Europe. The damage isn’t significant enough for China to abandon Russia.
Tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan have raised the prospect of a potential military conflict, but national security adviser Jake Sullivan believes such a scenario can be avoided.
Even though there is a risk of conflict with respect to Taiwan, I believe we can ensure that this contingency never comes to pass. And that is our responsibility,” he told Morning Edition host Steve Inskeep in an exclusive interview.
“The U.S. must take seriously China’s legitimate concerns, stop containing and suppressing China’s development, and particularly stop using salami tactics to constantly challenge China’s red line,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Sullivan’s comments about Taiwan are part of an interview that touched on a number of other national security concerns, including semiconductors, Ukraine and the Middle East.
I don’t want to get into hypotheticals about what a particular military contingency would look like. I will say this. Taiwan was the home of more than 70% of the most advanced Semiconductor when we entered office. The remaining percentage was produced in the Republic of Korea. In the United States they produced zero percent.
We will need to build those facilities and create a new leading edge manufacturing center in America again, because we still rely on imports from Taiwan and ROK. You can’t do that overnight. We believe we’re on a path to do that. A month by month, the U.S. supply chain becomes more secure.
There is no reason the United States and China can’t work together to cut down the flow of precursor chemicals that end up being used to make Fentanyl, a synthetic opiate that is killing tens of thousands of Americans.
That does not erase the fact that we have fundamental differences and different disagreements with the PRC, and we are not going to be shy about those, whether it’s speaking out on human rights, whether it is pushing back against provocative actions around Taiwan, whether it is the ways in which the PRC acts in an intimidating and coercive way against its neighbors.
Why Vladimir Putin wasn’t going to stop at point one, but at the Ukashenko’s epoch of war: The example of semiconductors
Semiconductors, as many people have now learned, actually just since the COVID-19 pandemic, are fundamental to the powering of our economy across the board, whether it’s our cars or our appliances or any of our high tech products, our iPhones, computers and so forth. Semiconductors are essential to military power. Semiconductors are in every nuclear submarine and power guidance systems for advanced missiles.
Sullivan told CNN that he thought it could stop at point one and respect the sovereignty of all nations. “Ukraine wasn’t attacking Russia. NATO wasn’t attacking Russia. The United States wasn’t attacking Russia. This was a war of choice that was waged by Putin.
Changing places with Xi Jinping. What will you do next? The role of the United States in defending democracy in the Middle East
The first thing I want you to know is that the United States will never change its commitment to Israel’s security. President Biden has been a fundamental and stalwart supporter of the state of Israel for as long as he’s been in public service. Second, we’re going to talk through the challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region. Iran’s threat is among the significant challenges. On the other hand, there are real opportunities, including what we’ve seen in the deepening normalization between Israel and some of the Arab states.
We will oppose policies and practices that undermine the viability of the two state solution or that cut hard against the historic status quo in Jerusalem. I will be direct and clear on those points.
The Financial Times reported earlier that the US Commerce Department had notified some companies that it would no longer grant licenses for any company to export American technology to Huawei, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
Huawei has vehemently denied such claims, and its founder and CEO has repeatedly said the company would never hand data over to the Chinese government. Western security experts claim that China’s national security and intelligence laws force Chinese companies to give up information.
Even though the US and Chinese relationship were symbolic, it was Biden’s comments about how Beijing would respond that raised doubts about how it would respond.
“Make no mistake: as we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did,” Biden said, referring to the moment Saturday when a US jet fired a missile that burst the balloon off the US east coast, after it had spent days wafting across the continental US and Canada.
Biden was trying to create political cover by having his comments in a theatrical setting. The president warned China not to violate the US’s sovereignty, a stunning moment that underscored a dangerous shift in the region.
Shortly after, in an ad-libbed addition of his speech, Biden specifically named himself as he slammed autocracies and argued for the superiority of democracies.
“Name me a world leader who’d change places with Xi Jinping. I would like to name me one. Biden has known his Chinese counterpart for a long time and met last year in Indonesia. The president was almost shouting at the end of his sentence, which could be seen as disdainful of China at a time when its economy is growing so fast.
When he put off his planned trip to Beijing over the balloon showdown, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was careful to say he was “postponing,” not scrapping his travel altogether. There’s no sign yet that conditions have changed enough to allow for a trip that was supposed to address tensions caused by the balloon issue to take place.
It will not help matters if the scope of the Chinese balloon program is revealed on Tuesday. US intelligence officials believe an extensive surveillance program run by the Chinese military is based in the province of Hainan and has conducted at least two dozen missions over at least five continents in recent years. Roughly half a dozen of those flights have been within US airspace – although not necessarily over US territory, according to one official familiar with the intelligence.
His remarks on Russia immediately proceeded those on China, making it impossible to miss the symbolic synergy between his policy toward both nations as he laid out what might be seen as a Biden doctrine of standing with democracies against autocracies and increasing attempts by nations like Russia and China to apply their power outside their borders.
Mr. Biden has been whipsawed by criticism from both directions, accused of being too slow to respond to the Chinese spy balloon as it meandered across the United States even as he was chided for overreacting to the subsequent objects that now appear to be relatively harmless, except perhaps to civilian air traffic.
The president said he waited until the balloon was safely over water before shooting it down, and he didn’t know what they were. He ordered the administration to come up with sharper rules to deal with future intrusions in American airspace.
The fate of Russia and China during the first 20 years of the Cold War: a comment by Frida Ghitis, a CNN correspondent
Editor’s Note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.
Sporting a self-satisfied grin, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood alongside a confident Chinese President Xi Jinping in February of last year. Putin was still denying plans to invade Ukraine, which he would do just after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
A year later, Putin’s push for a quick victory in Ukraine, one that would solidify Russia’s place as a top global player, looks like a disaster, and the alliance appears much less valuable to Xi.
In addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which President Joe Biden’s administration has accomplished with great success, the US must aim to forestall the creation of a credible, unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes.
But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.
According to the US, Russia has bought shells from North Korea, which denies involvement in a war which is beyond the pale.
Iran claimed that it sold the weapons before the war started, but they weren’t used in Ukraine. The documents show that the drones in the Ukraine are similar to the ones used in the Middle East.
Beijing’s relationship with Tehran is complicated. In December, a joint statement was issued after a meeting between Iran and Saudi officials, which angered Iran.
This week, Ebrahim Raisi became the first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.
Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are alarmed by the Beijing-Tehran ties and fear that China might help Tehran escape sanctions related to its nuclear and conventional weapons programs.
Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.
Wang said that Beijing will continue to work for peace despite the fact that it respects Territorial and sovereignty of all countries.
Throughout his visit to Europe and Russia, Wang made comments reflecting China’s attempts to maintain a close strategic alignment with Moscow.
The European Commission President told CNN “we don’t see that we are working with China and Russia now.”
In September 2022, Putin conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of diverging views on the war.
China’s top diplomat will also visit Russia this month, according to its foreign ministry, in the first visit to the country from a Chinese official in that role since the war began.
State Department Secretary Lukashenko: “The United States’ handling of the München Security Conference’s ballistic missile crisis” – Washington Post-Newtonian Secretary Blinken
According to CNN, the US has been concerned enough with the intelligence that they have given it to allies and partners. A US readout said that in a meeting with Wang on the sidelines of the conference, Blinken also raised the issue and warned him about the consequences.
“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.
“This warfare cannot continue to rage on. Wang said that they need to think about what efforts they can make to bring the war to an end.
Lukashenko, who allowed Russian forces to stage their incursion into Ukrainian territory last year, will be visiting in the coming weeks as tensions between the US and China intensify.
The concern that we have now is due to the fact that they may give lethal support and we have made it very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.
Multiple sources told CNN that it included items like helmets and flak jackets. China has not supplied lethal weapons systems that Russia has requested because it did not want to be seen as a pariah on the world stage, according to officials.
Beijing enjoys a close relationship with Moscow, and the Chinese government has been purchasing Russian energy and supplying machinery, electronics, base metals, vehicles, ships and aircraft, throwing the Kremlin an economic lifeline.
While President Biden often talks of aspiring to a relationship in which the two nations are in vigorous competition but not conflict, many at the Munich Security Conference — an annual meeting of diplomatic, intelligence officials and lawmakers — expressed concerns that the handling of the balloon episode merely highlighted how the two countries had failed to de-escalate, even when no lives were lost.
The United States shot the balloon down in order to divert attention from domestic problems, said Mr. Wang, who also said that the United States had violated an international treaty governing airspace.
The U.S. Navy and the Coast Guard have since recovered much of the balloon’s equipment — contained in a payload about the size of a small regional airliner — and American officials have said they intend to make public details about the sensors they found. Officials have already said the craft’s surveillance equipment was visible, contradicting China’s claims that it was a weather balloon.
The State Department is not looking for a new Cold War, nor is China interested in playing war with Russia? Mr. Wang told a tetrahedral conference on Sunday
While the State Department sought to portray Mr. Blinken’s tone as tough, its official statement on the meeting said that he had stressed to Mr. Wang “the importance of maintaining diplomatic dialogue and open lines of communication at all times,” and that “we do not want conflict with the P.R.C. and are not looking for a new Cold War.”
That phrase was particularly notable given that Mr. Wang had said, during earlier remarks on Saturday at the conference, that “the Cold War mentality is back” in global affairs.
Relations have been further damaged by the canceled trip and subsequent war of words. After Mr. Biden ordered the craft shot down, China rejected a request from Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III to speak with his Chinese counterpart — a development that U.S. officials called troubling.
Danny Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute said that the fact that both sides claim to have delivered their points on the spy balloon may help put the incident behind them.
As US President Joe Biden touched down in Ukraine to meet with his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, China’s top diplomat was traveling in the opposite direction, on his way to Russia.
The two trips taking place days before the anniversary of the war show how the fault lines in the world are sharper than ever.
Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, “We don’t add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis.”
He urged European officials to think about what role they should play in bringing lasting peace to Europe.
Some Western leaders are suspicious of any support China may provide to its northern neighbor, especially since the proposal only mentioned how they could help Russia on the battlefield.
The Chinese side does not give a steady stream of weapons to the battlefield. The ministry spokesman said at a news conference that the United States is not qualified to lecture China and they would not accept the pressure the US would put on Russia.
Is there anyone calling for dialogue and peace? Who is encouraging confrontation with knives? The international community can see what’s going on.
The Russian-Russian Correspondence at the China-Sugosian Collider: a critical assessment of Beijing’s Cold War
Beijing avoided actions that could cause secondary sanctions, which would deal a devastating blow to an economy that had been hampered by the zero- Covid policy.
And while Beijing’s pro-Russian rhetoric appears to have softened in recent months, its support for Moscow – when measured by its annual trade, diplomatic engagements and schedule of joint military exercises – has bolstered over the past year.
“Currently, the international situation is certainly grim and complex,” Mr. Wang told Mr. Putin, according to brief footage from the meeting that was shared by the Chinese news media. “But Chinese-Russian relations have withstood the test of international turbulence, and are mature and durable — as steadfast as Mount Tai,” he said, referring to a famed Chinese mountain.
Mr. Putin projected that the trade volume between Russia and China could hit $200 billion this year, more than double last year.
“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. Above all, we are talking about economic issues.
Mr. Wang didn’t use the words war or invasion in his comments. And while in Moscow, Mr. Wang may be even more reluctant to expose any deep differences between China and Russia.
She said that the US had recently sanctioned a Chinese company called Spacety which was providing support to the group in Bakhmut.
The forthcoming sanctions will also “clamp down on more Russian banks that have been evading sanctions” as well as “the middlemen who are flipping back money to the Russian government” through oil trade.
In an interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua released ahead of his visit, Lukashenko is cited as saying the position paper was a testimony to China’s peaceful foreign policy and a new and original step that would have a far-reaching impact.
Conflict and war don’t benefit anyone. The paper said that the parties must keep calm, avoid fanning the fire, and keep the crisis from getting out of control.
And despite claiming the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld,” the document fails to acknowledge Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Much of the language used in the document appears targeted at the West. The paper made a thinly veiled criticism of the United States’ Cold War mentality.
The security of a region shouldn’t be achieved by expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly,” it said, apparently echoing Moscow’s view the West provoked the war through the expansion of NATO.
The paper was swiftly criticized by American officials, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying the war “could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine and withdrew its forces.”
In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.
Ukraine’s envoy to Beijing said that China should do all it can to stop the war and force Russia to withdraw its troops.
Boosting economic ties between the United States and China with Lukashenko in the wake of the Russian-Brussan invasion of Ukraine
“This requires us to identify changes more voluntarily and respond to the changes more actively to further strengthen our comprehensive strategic partnership,” Wang said.
The president of Belarus will hold talks with Chinese officials in Beijing on Tuesday and Thursday as a result of an invitation from the Chinese leader, according to the Foreign Ministry.
His trip comes after the two leaders agreed to upgrade their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” during a September meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, which Putin also attended.
The backdrop of Belarus’ damaged ties with the West – and an interest in diversifying a Russia-dependent economy – could see Lukashenko keen to focus on boosting economic ties with China during this visit.
In response to Lukashenko allowing Russian troops to invade Ukraine, the US and its allies have imposed sanctions onBelarus.
A decade ago, Belarus was an early member of the Belt and Road development initiative, and trade between the two last year increased 33% to surpass $5 billion.
In a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Belarussian counterpart Sergei Aleinik on Friday, Qin pledged that China would “support Belarus in its efforts to safeguard national stability and development,” and “oppose external interference in Belarus’s internal affairs and illegal unilateral sanctions against the country,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.
On Monday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a regular briefing that Lukashenko’s visit would be “an opportunity to pursue further progress in the all-round cooperation between the two countries.”
“The thing I worry the most about is Ukraine,” he told Bloomberg Television in an interview Monday morning. The relationship between us and China is more serious than the economic issues we have to contend with on a day to day basis.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than a year ago and has roiled the global economy, leading to energy and food price shocks, along with global supply chain disruptions that fueled surging inflation across the world and led to painful interest rate hikes from the world’s central banks.
The war is the most serious issue we have had to deal with in over sixty years, and it impacts relations with China.
Dimon said JPMorgan Chase is taking an active role in improving the relationship between the United States and China by advising and engaging with both governments on keeping cordial relations. He’s hoping that “cooler heads prevail” but he doesn’t believe a business solution exists to ease growing disputes. He said that the Beijing government has to smooth tensions in order for JPMorgan Chase to continue doing business there.
“We probably should have started resetting this 10 years ago,” he said. The US government has to sit down and have a “very serious conversation with the Chinese government,” he said.
Yanking the U.S. with a Name: China’s Leaders, Propaganda, and Facing in the Wind
The Federal Reserve could possibly execute a soft landing, which would result in lowering interest rates and avoiding a recession. But overall, his outlook remains cloudy.
The US consumer is still in good condition thanks to high home prices, wages and bank accounts and they are still spending it.
Still, even if America does enter a recession, he said, consumers are much stronger and will be able to better withstand a downturn than they were in 2008.
BEIJING – Chinese leader Xi Jinping name-checked the United States in remarks during the annual session of parliament under way in Beijing this week, saying it was leading Western countries in an effort to encircle and suppress China.
The rare explicit comment was followed by a torrent of mockery and criticism aimed at Washington from the new foreign minister and former ambassador to the US, Qin Gang.
On Monday, Xi visited a breakout session of delegates to the legislative advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which meets along side the National People’s Congress.
Top leaders in China rarely single out other countries or leaders by name for criticism, preferring to leave it implicit or refer vaguely to “some countries” or “individual countries.”
Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims is part of China, is not included in the discussion about respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity when it comes to Ukraine. Why does the U.S. ask China not to give weapons to Russia when it sells them to Taiwan? Qin said something.
“If the United States does not hit the brakes, but continues to speed in the wrong direction, no amount of guardrails can stop them from derailing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation,” he said.
Manoj Kewalramani, with the Takshashila Institution in India, follows the language of China’s leaders and propaganda closely. He said the naming of America was a signal of unhappiness.
The balloon crisis angered Chinese officials, who may have instigated the shift. China’s policy toward the U.S. wouldn’t change substantively, he thought.
“By directly pointing to the U.S. as the source of major problems around the world, by name, you feel like that sets the possibility for China to potentially take substantive actions that they haven’t been willing to take before,” he said.
