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“Our Allies”: A Discussion on the Reluctance of Sweden and Finland to Join the NATO Alliance after the Last Sturm-Torsion in Turkey

Both countries will be called our allies soon, based on everything I know and the fact that both are already integrated into our work. “There can be no doubt on anyone’s part that they are ready today to be members of the alliance.”

In the last couple of days – amid pressure from the United States and other NATO members – Ankara has signaled that it might relent. Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of 27 US senators said in a letter to US President Joe Biden that Ankara’s continued blocking of Sweden and Finland joining NATO is hurting the entire alliance. The lawmakers urged Biden to delay the planned sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey until it agrees to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

Turkey’s President believes that Sweden and Finland’s membership in the Baltic states is detrimental to their security. Turkey says that Sweden and the United States are harbouring PKK terrorists, who are also found in Turkey, the United States and Europe. The Swedes have made it clear that they will not allow these individuals to be extradited.

The burning of a Koran by protesters during a demonstration outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm last month was the last straw for Erdogan. Ankara now has signaled that it might be willing to accept Finland as a future NATO member, but so far has blocked membership for Sweden.

“It is possible for us to assess the candidacy of Finland separately and this will no doubt be a topic that is discussed in the meetings we have today,” said Çavuşoğlu at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

He said that after the declaration of a different decision could be reached, they talked about it with the countries involved.

The debate between Turkey and Sweden after the Decay of the Quran at the Varsity of September 11 (The Report on Marja Heinonen)

Relations between Turkey and Sweden also deteriorated after Çavuşoğlu accused the Swedish government of being complicit in the burning of the Quran at a protest in Stockholm in January.

“They have removed any restrictions on arms exports, strengthened their legislation on terrorism. Sweden is amending their constitution, as well as stepped up their cooperation with Trkiye, which has established a permanent mechanism to continue to work with Trkiye against terrorism.

Turkey is not the only nation blocking the move: Hungary has also failed to ratify the Nordics’ accession which further muddies the waters. However, right now getting Turkey on side is considered the priority.

Editor’s Note: Marja Heinonen, a Finnish author of several books, has more than three decades’ experience as a journalist, editor and in academia, and holds a doctorate in communications. The views she gives are her own. Read more opinion on CNN.

Finnish-Sweden War: How Do We Want to See Them? Foreign Ministers in Finland are Frustrated by NATO and the Uncertainty About Sweden

We’re not just neighbors; We are bound together by centuries of shared history. The kingdom of Sweden ruled the parts ofFinland for 500 years, sometimes uneasily. And along with Finnish, Swedish is one of two official languages in Finland. Finns speak the language well.

The shadow of a powerful Russian neighbor with whom we went to war once before, left us with an exigency that helped develop our military defenses. We Finns used to think that our neighbor had become a peaceful trading partner, and no longer posed a threat to our national security.

US President Joe Biden underscored the importance of the article in his meetings with leaders from countries like the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, on the front lines of any potential hostilities with Moscow.

Political observers in Hungary say Budapest seems likely to relent as the application process proceeds this spring. The vote on the NATO bids byFinland and Sweden is expected to be held in early March, and officials have indicated that they expect to approve both bids.

It would appear that the NATO summit in July will determine the fate of Sweden and whether or not it will join the military alliance alone.

For the last few months, that uncomfortable possibility has been openly debated in political and security circles, and among average citizens in my country of some 5.5 million people. Officials from both countries are plowing ahead, even amid growing uncertainty as to whether the two Nordic allies can move forward together.

Sanna Marin, Prime Minister ofFinland said at a press conference in Sweden that her government would join NATO with Sweden. There are different interpretations of the word hand in hand.

The Finns think it makes sense for us to go first because of the 800-mile border we have with Russia, creating a greater security risk. Others feel that in the end, it won’t make all that much difference if Finland joins first and Sweden joins a few months from now. Both nations are eager to get the deal done as soon as possible.

A survey found that a small majority of Finns want to join the alliance ahead of Sweden.

The tone of the debate has softened in the recent days, and it may be due to threats. NATO intends to have Sweden and Finn joined by the time of its summit in Vilnius, according to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

NATO diplomats have differing views on whether or not Turkey will relent before the summit. The Turkish election is seen as a major political threat by both schools of thought.

“The image he has created of a strongman who gets results for the Turkish people has been shattered,” explains Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program. “There is a lot of anti-West and anti-Kurd sentiment in Turkey at the moment. He can bang his drum and make a strong statement if he follows through with a dramatic U-turn.

Turkey has depended on Russia for economic support since other nations imposed sanctions for their activities in Syria. Without the help of the Russians, the leader of the country wouldn’t have been able to raise wages or provide financial support to students. He is now promising mass rebuilding, post-earthquake. Russia is an attractive partner for Erdogan.

Like many Western officials, Tol believes the Turkish claims about Sweden and Finland harboring terrorists provide perfect cover for Erdogan not to engage at a politically inconvenient time on the NATO question.

While nothing may come from the talks due between the three parties on Thursday, a conversation is taking place about how much political capital Erdogan might have to spend after the election, should he win.

For this to happen, officials are bracing for Turkey to make more realistic demands than the handing over of individuals it deems to be terrorists, such as the lifting of sanctions or the US allowing Turkey to buy the fighter jets that the country badly needs to keep its air force up to date.

Vladimir Orban, the War of Ukraine, and the War on the Warsaw Pact: How Will NATO and the West Handle a War?

There are a few reasons Orban would want to drag his feet. Hungary has a poor rule of law record. He addressed this in a recent interview, asking how “can anyone want to be our ally in a military system while they’re shamelessly spreading lies about Hungary?”

It’s possible that Orban is trying to get concessions from other EU member states because Hungary has been accused of violating all manner of EU laws. EU funds have been held back and the bloc has been called into question. While NATO and the EU are separate entities, they share many members and it is plausible that bilateral diplomacy could see some give-and-take between Hungary and its EU counterparts.

A lot of people don’t know that one of the reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine was to stop NATO expansion. The fact that his aggression may have pushed a traditionally unaligned country into NATO is seen by most in the west as an own goal by the Moscow.

The future of the alliance remains up in the air, despite an agreement being reached. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, there has been an alignment by both Sweden and Finland. It seems unlikely that they will return to neutrality after the war is over.

If NATO fails to join at all then the Kremlin can use it for propaganda purposes and that is a risk for the alliance. Even if the war ends and NATO wins, the narrative of a divided West will continue.