Putin Pulls Back From Nuclear Arms Treaty in a sign of changing times

State Department and National Security officials disagree on the timing of the end of the Ukrainian-Ukranian war and challenges to diplomacy at the negotiating table

Two administration officials say that neither the Secretary of State Antony Blinken nor the national security adviser Jake Sullivan, believe it is time for a serious push for talks over Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have said that the war will end at the negotiating table. The Russians sometimes have voiced that same sentiment, according to Price.

Milley’s push for peace has spilled into the public in recent days, just as Ukraine takes back the city of Kherson. Milley praised the army of the Ukrainians for their work in fighting Russia, but said that an actual military victory was not out of reach.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

While some Biden officials are more open to exploring what diplomacy may look like, sources tell CNN most of the top diplomatic and national security officials are wary of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin any sort of leverage at the negotiating table and believe Ukrainians must determine when to hold talks, not the US.

The officials said that Milley intended to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation but rather that he thinks now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war and prevent more death and destruction.

That view is not shared by most of the administration. One official explained that the State Department is on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. That dynamic has led to a unique situation where military brass are more fervently pushing for diplomacy than US diplomats.

Milley’s position comes as the US military has dug deep into US weapons stockpiles to support the Ukrainians and is currently scouring the globe for materials to support Ukraine heading into winter – such as heaters and generators – which has raised concerns about how long this war can be sustained, officials said.

An effort is underway to find weaponry available for the intense battles that are currently taking place in Ukranian, a US official stated. The US will purchase 100,000 howitzer rounds as part of a deal to send them to Ukranian.

What happened to Zelensky’s exchange with the United States and the Ukranian government? The moral conundrum of Biden and his diplomatic victory over Ukraine

Ned Price wouldn’t say if the State Department agrees with Milley’s position. The US has often said that there is a need for a diplomatic solution in the case of Zelensky.

The engagement was cut to the Russian threat to Ukraine and the security guarantees Russia sought from the United States and NATO. It was apparent to me that the Russians had no intention of negotiating in good faith.

Comments by DeSantis and other Republicans like House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has warned against a “blank check” to Kyiv, show that while Biden can promise the US is with Kyiv for “as long as it takes,” he cannot guarantee it. The election for the US in 2024 may be more important than the one forUkraine.

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that further prisoner swaps with the United States are possible. The Putin said the exchange of Griner for Bout was the result of negotiations and the search for compromises.

The decision of President Joe Biden to swap NBA star Brittanyn Grein for Viktor Bout goes well beyond the exchange’s bottom line. It was a humane solution to a painful dilemma that had arisen after difficult talks with a Russian regime that treated people as pawns. In that sense, the Biden administration shows the gulf between its morals and those of the Russian president, who is currently showing his inhumanity on another front with a fearsome assault on Ukrainian civilians.

But the tragic counterpoint to this diplomatic triumph – Biden’s failure to also secure the release of Paul Whelan, another American incarcerated in a Russian penal colony – underscored the unforgiving moral conundrum he faced. It prompted top Republicans to charge that he had prioritized a basketball star over a former marine who had benefited from a political campaign against Biden.

Saudi Arabia was a major player in the exchange and also helped to get rid of US citizens who were captured in fighting in Ukranian. Whether the kingdom, which has relations with both Moscow and Washington and is seeking to increase its global leadership role, might emerge as a mediator over Ukraine remains to be seen. Biden might have made his decision to go to the kingdom earlier this year in order to greet the ruthless crown prince with a fist bumped if there had been smoothing of US- Russia exchanges.

It is impossible for a deal with Putin to be any better than it was. But it is the job of a president to weigh these competing dynamics within the context of America’s national goals and duty to its citizens.

“This is a precarious situation that needs to be resolved quickly,” a deeply disappointed Whelan told CNN’s State Department producer Jennifer Hansler in an exclusive phone interview. “I would hope that (Biden) and his administration would do everything they could to get me home, regardless of the price they might have to pay at this point.”

“It’s clear that the US government has no concessions that the Russian government will take for Paul Whelan. David stated in a statement Thursday that Paul will remain a prisoner until that changes.

Biden needs the consent of the German Chancellor to supersede his country’s legal system since it involves another government and he is attempting to get Whelan free. There is no sure thing about the political capacity of the new German leader and the kind of Russian concession Berlin will have to give.

A senior administration official spoke on Thursday night and said the US needs to make something more, something different from what they have offered to the Russians so far.

Administration officials said that Biden received the best deal on offer, even though he is being criticized for doing a bad deal.

“I want to be very clear – this was not a situation where we had a choice of which American to bring home. The senior administration official told reporters that they had a choice between bringing home one particular American or not.

Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, said she thought that Putin wanted to swap only Nunn for Bout and didn’t really think he’d hand over Whelan.

It is happening because Vladimir Putin needs a victory in Russia and he is having trouble convincing the Russians that war with Ukranian is a good idea, said Farkas.

She said there was some hope for Whelan since the Griner exchange showed the Russians would make a deal if they thought it was in their interests.

The fierce political divides that now challenge every US foreign policy decision did not take long to bubble over after Griner was freed – alongside a more vicious reaction on social media as some conservatives questioned her patriotism.

Another Republican, Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida described the deal to free Griner in a Twitter post as “shameful” and accused the administration of “giving priority to a celebrity over a veteran.”

“I think the challenge this points to is these regimes know this. The president traded five Citgo executives who had been lured to Venezuela in order to get rid of his nephews who were convicted drug traffickers.

The Iranian regime, the Taliban, and Putin are all taking Americans hostage because we are continuing to make concessions. When do we start dictating the terms to these regimes?”

Whelan’s family reacted with great dignity in welcoming Griner’s release, despite their devastation that their brother did not come home. Foreign countries are trying to stir dissent in the United States through the issue of hostages abroad, says Paul’s sister.

“We tend to always look at what is Russia getting out of this? … We are getting a wrongfully detained American back home. It is something to celebrate.

“We have shown an openness to talk about that which is actually available to us and gotten only in response a demand for something not available to us,” the official said, reiterating that the Russians refused what had been offered to secure the release of Whelan.

Demands related to the war in Ukraine did not come up in the negotiations to secure Griner’s release and attempt to secure Whelan’s, the official said, adding that the US would not make concessions on that front.

“We’ve obviously thought about why that might be the case” that the Russians didn’t float it, the official said, “and I think we credit it to the fact that we’ve been so crystal clear, so consistent, that it is not for us to negotiate how that horrific situation gets resolved.”

The official said that it is not for bargaining if it were raised. Another country’s future is not for bargaining and the defense of democracy against autocracy is not for bargaining.”

Vinnik, Seleznev and the US-Russian prisoner swap: a challenge to the US and the Russians, as revealed by a CNN analyst

It is going to be a challenge for the President and his team to give everything they have to the people that want it.

An official said there was a willingness to pay a large price on the part of the President. “We have made clear to the Russians that we at least are open to talking about that which is at our disposal, that which we could actually deliver. It would be somebody in our custody.”

Sources say that the US tried to get the Russians to include Whelan in the swap. Among the names floated by the US was Alexander Vinnik, a Russian national extradited to the US in August on allegations of money laundering, hacking and extortion. The US also offered to trade Roman Seleznev, a convicted Russian cyber-criminal currently serving a 14-year sentence in the US, sources said.

The lawyer for Seleznev had not responded to the request for comment. Frédéric Bélot, a lawyer who represented Vinnik in France before his extradition to the US, told CNN on Friday that he was not aware of any current discussions between Moscow and Washington over including Vinnik in a potential prisoner swap.

The council did not make a comment. A senior Biden administration official told CNN that Russia had demanded someone not in US custody even as the US made a number of different proposals. The Russians kept trying to get the same thing that the US could not deliver on.

Kiev vs. Russia: The United Nations as a medium for the anniversary of Russia’s war, and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kuleba

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the anniversary of Russia’s war.

Asked about whether they would invite Russia to the summit, he said that Moscow would first need to face prosecution for war crimes at an international court.

Kuleba also said he was “absolutely satisfied” with the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. last week, and he revealed that the U.S. government had made a special plan to get the Patriot missile battery ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. The training takes a long time.

Kuleba said during the interview at the Foreign Ministry that Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role.

He said that the United Nations could be the best venue for the summit because it was not about making a favour to a certain country. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.”

At the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November, Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula that includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression and security guarantees for Ukraine.

Kuleba said that he has proven himself as a man of principle and integrity in his role. We would welcome his participation.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: The first foreign visit since the February 24 air- and ground-attack of Ukrainian leader Petrovich Zelenskyy

“They regularly say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite,” he said.

Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. was his first foreign trip since the war started on Feb. 24. Kuleba spoke about the significance of the visit.

Kuleba said that this shows how important the U.S. is to both Ukraine and the US.

He said that the U.S. government developed a program for the missile battery to complete the training faster than usual “without any damage to the quality of the use of this weapon on the battlefield.”

While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” And he added that the training will be done “outside” Ukraine.

Kuleba has been second only to Zelenskyy when it comes to carrying out Ukraine’s message in the air and ground war, whether it’s through talks with friendly foreign officials or via social media.

On Monday, Ukraine called on U.N. member states to deprive Russia of its status as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and to exclude it from the world body. Kuleba has been prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.

The Foreign Ministry said that Russian never went through the legal procedure to become a member of the UN Security Council after the fall of the Soviet Union.

U.S. war crimes at the Davos of Defense – a critical view from the U.K. to the EU and beyond

Dubbed the Davos of Defense, the Munich Security Conference attracts heads of state, generals, intelligence chiefs and top diplomats from around the world.

The president ofUkraine called on the Western leaders to act rather than talk during the conference, saying they needed to send weapons quickly or the supplies would run out.

This year, the U.S. made its presence at the gathering felt with a record number of delegates, including significant bipartisan and bicameral representation from Congress.

On both the conference stage and on the sidelines, broader issues were at play, but with delegations from every continent beyond Europe and the members of NATO.

The US believes that Russian troops are committing war crimes in Ukranian. Now they have gone one step further by classifying Russian atrocities as crimes against humanity. The Vice President said that justice must be done and that the perpetrators must be held to account.

Harris described how Russian soldiers are deliberately targeting civilians, citing evidence of “widespread and systemic” rape, torture, execution-style killings, beatings, electrocution and deportation, including children who, she said, have been cruelly separated from their parents.

She said that delegates should not look the other way since the United Nations reported that a four-year-old girl was sexually assault by a Russian soldier.

The U.S. Secretary of State said in a statement released at the conference: “We reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes.”

The Russian spy balloon feud: a high-level meeting between the State Department and the European Union, whose Chancellor and new defense minister are pushing for higher military spending in Europe

China is meanwhile injecting its own strategic play into this widening great power brouhaha. It sent its top diplomat Wang Yi – his ears ringing with US warnings not to send Russia arms to use in Ukraine – to Moscow for high-level talks, even as a Sino-American spy balloon feud simmers.

This is a time when the United States is negotiating worse foreign policy crises with its Cold War enemies in the Russia and new rival in China. Both these rivals are openly challenging the international rule of law and rejecting norms that have underpinned the international system for decades.

After much “will they, won’t they”, Blinken and Wang sat down together on the last night of the conference, in the first high-level meeting between the two countries since the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon.

The US is not looking for a conflict with China, but warns Beijing against providing material support to Russia, the State Department said in a statement.

While Wang Yi did not give any detail on how to achieve peace in Ukraine or what peace in the region means, Europe’s leaders committed to investing more in weapons.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said member states must work together with the defense industry to scale up the production of munitions for Ukraine which, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, is using them quicker than Europe can replace them.

The Chancellor of the Germans asked his European partners to fulfill their promise to deliver the battle tanks to Ukraine. During a Q&A session, Scholz quipped it was ironic that he’s now having to urge others to deliver Leopard tanks quickly to Ukraine after they’d put pressure on him to do the same in previous weeks.

Scholz’s new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius continued in the same vein and pushed for higher military spending within Europe and NATO. He went one step further than Scholz’s promise to meet the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, and called on the NATO alliance to agree on 2% as a minimum commitment, aiming for higher. Germany does not meet the 2% target and is currently not expected to do so for at least another couple of years.

They had asked for fighter jets, but he had said no on several occasions. He warned against hasty decisions and the danger of escalation, but said that Germany’s support for Kyiv was unswerving.

The Washington Post-World War II Spot: U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2022, and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Prominent Kremlin critics — including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of jailed opposition political Alexey Navalny — were pointedly offered seats instead.

The conference is known for promoting dialogue, even between adversaries, but it was not important to the chair that it serve as a podium for Russian propaganda.

Heusgen – who served as former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s top foreign policy aide – admitted in an interview earlier this week that he left last year’s conference convinced Russia would not invade Ukraine. The invasion began four days later.

Editor’s Note: John J. Sullivan was US Ambassador to Russia from December 2019 to October 2022. He was previously US Deputy Secretary of State. And is now a partner in Mayer Brown LLP and a Distinguished Fellow at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has opinions on it.

We were still looking for ways to repair the relations with the world’s only other nuclear superpower. Everything that we were doing changed when we found out that US intelligence officials had told senior policymakers that Russia was preparing for an invasion of Ukraine.

I have been telling everyone I know for weeks that Vladimir Putin was planning to launch a war in Europe, which hadn’t been seen since World War II.

I was not sure about my pre-war assessment. I was the US Ambassador for two years where I tried my best to make modest progress in a few areas with the Russians.

My approach was reaffirmed following President Joe Biden’s meeting in Geneva with Putin in June 2021. No one in our US delegation had the illusion that we’d make progress on any issue, but they all agreed that it was in the interests of the United States to try.

Russian interlocutors read from their talking points and would not engage in a real dialogue. Minders from Russia’s security services monitored meetings and phone calls. The Russians were going through a diplomatic charade to lay the groundwork for an invasion that Putin had already decided to launch. The only question was when.

More significantly, the invasion roiled the global economy, including energy and grain markets. And most tragically, it slaughtered thousands of innocents and caused unspeakable suffering for millions of Ukrainians because of a policy choice by Putin in his quest for empire.

This is a global problem that will only get worse until it is stopped and reversed in the interest ofUkraine, which will protect its sovereignty and security.

That may be the case. Putin made it clear in his speech that the war would not end soon. He told Russians that the conflict was part of a plan by the West to sabotage Russia, which would lead to months of bloodshed if Russia doesn’t prevail.

The goals of the Russian military operation can’t and won’t be achieved. The Russian government will need to negotiate in good faith. And only after that will peace return to Europe.

The era of formal was demonstrated when Putin announced he would suspend Russia from the New START treaty just after he had finished his speech.

Most nuclear experts now think that another treaty between Moscow and Washington would not make sense. The Pentagon now estimates that China, which is rapidly expanding its arsenal, could deploy 1,500 weapons in the next dozen years, matching the American and Russian arsenals. An arms control treaty that left out one of the major powers was useless. If there were any negotiations, China had no interest in joining them.

“Russia’s refusal to facilitate inspection activities prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control,” the spokesperson said.

It was already in trouble before Putin dismissed the treaty’s required inspection as nonsense. The State Department said that the Russians were out of compliance with their treaty obligations.

President Joe Biden is willing to talk about the nuclear arms treaty at any time with Russia, regardless of what else is going on in the world, according to deputy prime minister Tony Blinken.

“We’ll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does, we’ll of course make sure that in any event that we are posturing appropriately for the security of our own country and that of our allies,” said Blinken. “I think it matters that we continue to act responsibly in this area … it’s also something the rest of the world expect of us.”

The Bilateral Consultative Commission on the treaty was supposed to meet in Egypt in late November but didn’t happen. The US blames Russia for the delay with a State Department spokesman saying that the decision was made by Russia.

The latest development announced by Putin “puts (the) treaty on life support,” Hans Kristensen, the Director of the Nuclear Information Project, wrote on Twitter, questioning whether Russia will now stop exchanging data with US counterparts.

Putin’s nuclear saber rattling during the war has alarmed the US and its allies, though officials have repeatedly dismissed the moves as empty threats.

Nuclear powers do not lose major conflicts that affect their fate, according to a Telegram post. “This should be obvious to anyone. A Western politician who has at least some intelligence might be able to claim it.

Mr. Putin’s announcement, he added, was “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.” But he suggested that the United States would not change its compliance with the treaty, no matter what Russia did.

When the treaty expires in a bit more than 1000 days, whoever is in the Oval Office may face a new world similar to that of 50 years ago, when weapons races were in full swing.

Foreign Policy Analysis of a Cold War between the United States and the West: An Overview of Putin’s First High-Energy Address to the Ukraine

He said he wouldn’t allow inspectors to survey those facilities because they were likely to pass on their findings to the Ukrainians. He said it was a theater of the absurd. “We know that the West is directly involved in the attempts of the Kyiv regime to strike at the bases.”

A long-dragging conflict could also drive divides between the US and Europe – further playing into China’s foreign policy goals. And it could further incite political dissent in Washington, weakening Biden’s capacity to fulfill his foreign policy goals on the global stage.

In the most significant move this week, Putin welcomed Wang and told him his relations were reaching a new milestone.

There are opportunities in a crisis for both the nations and the crises could possibly turn into the former.

The idea of a global contest between democracies and autocracies seemed theoretical and intangible when Biden voiced it while running for president. Now it is all too real.

And this new and complicated foreign policy picture is not just a problem for American diplomats. Rising challenges abroad as well, as the depletion of US and Western weapons stocks as arms are sent to Ukraine, pose questions about military capacity and whether current defense spending is sufficient. Key Republicans meanwhile are accusing Biden of snubbing voters facing economic and other problems, even as he tries to position Democrats as the protectors of working Americans as the 2024 campaign dawns.

And Biden vowed, “President Putin’s craven lust for land and power will fail, and the Ukrainian people’s love for their country will prevail,” he added.

Western ears think that Putin is living in a different reality. Biden disagreed with his claims of Western imperialism, and said that he spoke to the people of Russia once more. The United States and the nations of Europe do not seek to control or destroy Russia. Putin said that the West was not planning to attack Russia.

It has not come close to happening despite the fear of Russia going into NATO countries. “I think they have shown themselves to be a third-rate military power.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/president-biden-vladmir-putin-china-ukraine/index.html

First American-Russian Interaction since the U.S.-Russia War after the Cold War: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Sergey Lavrov

Biden’s trip also demonstrated that the estrangement between the US and Russia – a factor that will shape global politics for years – is almost complete.

Russia lacks resources in order to ignite a new nuclear arms race with the United States, because of its sputtering economy and pressure on its conventional forces. A post-Cold war thaw between the US and Russia was brought about by a lack of communication between the rivals.

The Biden administration’s accusation last week that Russia has committed crimes against humanity ensures there will be no return to normality between Washington and Moscow even if the Ukraine war ends.

There is no proof yet that China supplied lethal arms for the conflict. The idea of a alliance against Washington by Moscow and Beijing is not likely due to the power disparity between Beijing and Moscow.

On Sunday, Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned against such a step but did not specify what consequences could come from it.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov met briefly on the sidelines of a meeting of the Group of 20 nations in India. It’s the first face-to-face interaction between the countries’ two top diplomats since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Even at the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union maintained their arms control coordination.

Blinken said he reiterated the call for Moscow to accept Washington’s proposal to release Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine imprisoned in Russia since 2018.

On Thursday, he said, “We’re determined to bring Paul and every other American citizen who is unjustly detained around the world home. We will not rest until we do.

G20 Security Council Report on the ‘Russian War’ at the Centre of Kiev’s Nuclear Confinement and Security Problems’

Thursday’s news comes after the U.S. announced another large tranche of weapons to Ukraine, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who was recently in Kyiv, pledged more U.S. economic aid to Ukraine.

India, which holds the rotating chair of the G-20 this year, hoped the war in Ukraine would not dominate proceedings at the meetings of the group’s foreign ministers.

The host country instead wants the event to focus on some of the issues more pertinent to the Global South such as climate change, food security, inflation and debt relief.