Conflict expert warns that India-Pakistan is a huge risk
“It is an act of war”: the India’s military said in a statement of Wednesday’s attacks on the terrorist sector
India’s military said the strikes, which occurred overnight Wednesday local time, as targeting “terrorist infrastructure.” It said in a statement the strikes were “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature” and that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted. There were some locations which were picked to avoid damage to civilian infrastructures and loss of any civilian lives.
Pakistani government called Wednesday’s strikes as “an act of war.” The Associated Press reported that 31 people had been killed in Pakistan.
It appeared the deadliest strikes hit a mosque in the southern Pakistani town of Ahmedpur East. 14 people were killed in those strikes, most of them members of the family of Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist group.
Insights from the very first round of India–Pakistan and the Indian–Indian crisis, and an analysis of India’s response to Pakistan
Praveen Donthi: It indicates that there will be a serious escalation in the next few days or weeks. The very first round of escalation between India and Pakistan has started on a much larger scale than in the last crisis in 2019, so that’s a cause for concern. We have seen these kind of exchanges before, probably in 1971, when both nations went to war.
Pakistan stated that there was a hydropower dam on a river. That attack in particular raised hackles, because last month, India suspended its decades-old water treaty with Pakistan that divides six rivers between the two water-stressed countries. The suspension was one of several that were announced after the militant attack in April. “The treaty’s suspension is a threat to the people of Pakistan,” said Pakistan’s representative to the U.N., Asim Iftikhar Ahmad.
Other strikes landed in Pakistan’s Punjab province, including in a town called Murikde, some 30 miles from Lahore, the country’s second largest city. The expert on the region, Michael Kugelman of Foreign Policy, said that India has not struck deep in Pakistan since 1971. “What also stands out about these recent strikes is the scale and intensity of them,” he told NPR.
India has many drills to prepare its first responders for conflict. Volunteers rappelled from the top of a building as sirens went off and firecrackers erupted — apparently to imitate shelling in one drill in the Indian port city of Mumbai. India’s Parliament and several top government offices took a hit from drills in New Delhi.
Praveen Donthi is a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “This should have stopped before it got out of hand,” Donthi said.
Inskeep: I’m interested in listening to you because you told me that India may have struck partly because of public pressure to do something. Pakistan is under pressure to act because of the public’s expectation to do something.
The reporting from Mumbai, India, and Pampore, Indian-Administered Kashmir were done by diaa Hadid. NPR producer Omkar Khandekar in Mumbai contributed reporting.
Praveen said that the war in Yemen is abenign and that it’s necessary for the U.S. to intervene, but that the president’s statement makes it seem like they’re in a war.
Steve Inskeep: NPR’s Diaa Hadid reports that India struck earlier in the week. We had the feeling that it would be. National security advisers talking, trying to work it out. But suddenly more strikes today. What do you think about that?
Inskeep speaks. India says it’s striking air defenses in Pakistan. For the purposes of the question, let’s assume that’s true. When you strike air defenses, it is often to clear the way for hitting something else, to clear out the airspace. Is there a belief that India will strike again?
Donthi: Well, they say it’s an ongoing operation. They’ve already claimed to have hit nine sites, which they call “terror infrastructure.” There could be more strikes on the way. Pakistan is going to retaliate strongly because they are under immense pressure and there have been many civilian deaths compared to the last time.
Donthi is talking about when India revoked Kashmir’s special status and intensified a campaign of raids on residents in the Muslim state.
The Middle East is a Problem for India and the United States, but it’s not the right time for India or the U.S.
That’s correct. Military strikes followed diplomatic moves. And every time there seems to be a demand for a more forceful strike, we don’t know what’s going to come next. But this time around, it looks very serious. But the world doesn’t seem to be taking it seriously. President Trump talked about how this conflict has been going on for many decades. In fact, he said “centuries,” which might make it sound like it’s a benign war that’s been going on and they’re bound to stop at one point. It is a huge risk because both of them are nuclear powers and all they need to do is make a mistake. So both these powers are not completely in control of the escalation dynamics, which the world seems to believe.
Donthi: Yes, exactly. President Trump claimed that he was close to both India and the US, but we know that is not true. There are historic ties with Pakistan as well. The U.S. can bring the parties to the table.
