Tensions grow after a deadly Kashmir attack

South Asia’s nuclear powers locked in the act of war: The Indus Waters Treaty suspended after a militant attack on Pakistan’s Kashmir

MUMBAI — Tensions between South Asia’s two nuclear-armed powers ratcheted up Thursday after India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue “to the ends of the earth” those behind a militant attack on Tuesday that killed 26 people in India-administered Kashmir.

Modi said in English that India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.

Tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have soared after India blamed Pakistan for a militant attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday that killed 26 men. It is one of the deadliest attacks on Indians in years, but Pakistan has denied any involvement.

Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister denied that their country was involved in the press conference. He asked if there was proof of the involvement of Pakistan, please share it with us and the world.

The attack came days after Pakistan’s army chief described Kashmir as his country’s “jugular vein.” Parts of the Himalayas are held by Pakistan and India. Both countries have fought over Kashmir, and claim it in their entirety.

India decided to suspend the water treaty with Pakistan after the attack. The major border crossing was closed and military advisers were ordered to leave the diplomatic mission in New Delhi.

“The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” said the foreign secretary, Vikram Misri.

“Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the statement read. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”

Water experts said Pakistan’s fears about water loss due to suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty were overblown because of the area’s geography, which includes some of the world’s highest mountains. “There is no known technology through which you can stop a river the size of the Indus, or the Jhelum, or the Chenab,” said Daanish Mustafa, professor in critical geography at King’s College London, referring to the rivers whose waters Pakistan is entitled to under the treaty.

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The Kashmir police released a “wanted” poster with the names and sketches of three militant who they say were involved in Tuesday’s attack. The reward for information that leads to their “neutralization” was more than $20,000, and two of them were identified as Pakistan nationals.

A union purportedly representing the Indian film industry workers demanded the government ban an upcoming Bollywood film featuring Pakistani actor Fawad Khan. India also blocked the Pakistan government’s handle.

“India has a freer hand to escalate for the simple reason that it does not have any alliances or military partnerships,” says Ajai Shukla, a strategic affairs commentator and retired Indian army colonel. “The downside is that India will be fighting alone. There are limitations on the weaponry it can buy and use. Pakistan and China, as well as some other countries, coalesce in an anti-India coalition.

“What India can immediately do is shut off communication on water flow that it gives to Pakistan,” says Imran Khalid, an independent water analyst from Pakistan. In the long term, he warns, India could build dams, effectively reducing Pakistan’s access to water.

Khaled cautions against more escalations. “India hasn’t said, we’re going to withdraw from the treaty. It’s only suspending it. I think there is wiggle room for both countries to approach this matter in a way that is in line with the long history of cooperation.

Friday’s brief exchange of gunfire appeared to end without casualties, according to the Indian military and media. Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesperson declined to comment on the firing at a press briefing in Islamabad, saying he would defer to the Pakistani military for formal confirmation.

The end of the Kashmir issue: a U.N. approach, not a military response, and what the Indians can do about it

In a briefing Thursday, Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, told reporters that the U.N. was appealing to both countries “to ensure that the situation and the developments we’ve seen do not deteriorate any further.”

Some Indian analysts said that there could be more serious military action in the coming days. Siddharth Varadarajan, who is the founding editor of The Wire, stated that there would be a military response.

Varadarjan believes there may be difficulties in defusing the situation because of the previous incidents of hostility between the two countries. He says that the global terrain is different. “You have a White House that may be less inclined to interfere and intervene than it did five years ago.”

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce declined to answer a question from a journalist this week on whether the U.S. might try to mediate on Kashmir, as President Trump offered to do during his first term in the White House. Bruce said it was a rapidly changing situation and that they were watching it closely. President Trump disapproves of Tuesday’s attack.

Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, noted that it would be difficult for India to sustain a wider conflict, simply because it does not have enough air power to do so. There seems to be no plans for any capacity for a sustained military operation. “Even if there is some kind of military operation, it is going to be fairly quick. Of course, the problem is that then Pakistan will respond — and then how that goes, it’s difficult to say.”

“Let’s pretend the Indians have gone completely bonkers, right? They pull out $100 billion out of their pocket and start building dams like absolute crazy people. What are they going to do with the dam?” The person says it. “If it’s a hydroelectric dam, they have to release the water in order to generate electricity.” A dam would sublimates the entire Kashmir Valley, he says. That’s the end of the Kashmir issue.”