The Republicans got cause for concern from 5 things from Tuesday’s elections

The Energy of the Out-Party in Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs for the GOP and the Predictions for 2023

In Wisconsin, Democrats won a judicial election that saw a record amount of money spent and was something of a referendum on the agenda of President Trump, as well as being a big part of it, being electric car maker Elon Musk.

Republicans, on the other hand, won the two special elections in Florida by roughly 14 points each. These districts are red. Republican members of Congress, who had represented these seats before being plucked for the Trump administration, won them by more than 30 points in November, so Democrats ate into the margins significantly there as well — though indications were they might do even better. (These are the seats that were held by Mike Waltz, now the national security adviser, and Matt Gaetz, whom Trump wanted to be attorney general before his nomination was pulled over concerns that he lacked sufficient Republican support to be confirmed.)

Susan Crawford, a liberal judge, helped keep the state Supreme Court leaning in Democrats’ direction in a race that saw nearly $70 million in advertising, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the most ever for a judicial race. The included was some $20 million from Musk.

Crawford won the race with more than 98% of the vote in a state that had decided the presidential election by 1 point in the middle of the century.

There were 60 Republican House members who won in 2024 by 15 points or less — and they might be concerned after these results, according to Ballotpedia. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board, well read in Trump world, is calling the results a “MAGA backlash.”

It’s important to be careful to not overread the results of off-year elections — and Democrats did win a Wisconsin judicial seat in 2023, but lost the state in the presidential election. But there are early warning signs here for the GOP and a reminder that the energy is often with the out-party, which is why they have historically done so well in presidents’ first midterms. If a president continues with his agenda of divisiveness, these elections are a sure bet for success in the midterms.

Why did Senator Cory Booker lose his seat on a Republican judicial race? When he didn’t lose his luster, or what does he do now?

Musk was a participant in the Wisconsin judicial race. Groups with the world’s richest man’s backing spent some $20 million. He also made an appearance in the state (wearing a cheese hat), offered $1 million checks to voters and even said “the entire destiny of humanity” could rest on the race.

If Musk does start to lose luster in Trump’s eyes, it could be a result congressional Republicans are quietly happy about. After all, they won their two House seats in Florida, helping shore up their majority, and Wisconsin’s outcome might help move Musk and his blunt, unpopular agenda out of the spotlight.

Strong GOP backing is one of the reasons why Trump’s approval rating is slightly higher than it was during his first term. But an AP-NORC poll out this week showed Trump’s approval rating falling to 42%, and his economic approval only at 40%, compared to better marks he received on immigration. That’s especially telling on this day of reciprocal tariffs as his trade war is unpopular.

By the way, Musk may be new to politics, but he violated a key rule of it — never put anything on your head you don’t normally wear, even Trump, who likes a good hat, knows about that one.

The Democratic party’s internal battle is being framed as a progressive vs. moderate fight. Largely, many in the party agree on the issues, with obvious exceptions on how far to go on certain things or when to push for them or not.

That was clear with how angry the “do something” Democratic base was when Senate leader Chuck Schumer allowed a GOP-led spending bill to pass last month to keep the government open. It’s also why so many on the left liked Sen. Cory Booker holding the floor of the Senate with an anti-Trump speech. The record was held by Strom Thurmond, a racist South Carolina senator, who died in 2001, but Booker, who is African American, said he knew about it.

“I don’t think that the most meaningful distinction within Democrats now is left versus center,” state party chair Ben Wickler said in MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “I think it’s actually going on your front foot and fighting back versus rolling over and playing dead.”

He noted that Crawford and Underly were against Musk’s casting of a check and balance, and that they both objected to the abortion ban at the court.

“These are broadly held by progressives, by centrists, by everything in between,” Wikler said. “You have to go out there and fight.” It is to make the case to voters; it is to be omnipresent, to communicate, travel everywhere, and I think the Democrats who do that in the big-tent coalition that makes up the Democratic Party, the anti-MAGA coalition, you’re going to see a lot of success from people who have that energy and that conviction. It’s what voters are looking for right now.

The race for the 6th congressional district seat in Florida, which Trump was most concerned about, would have ranked in the top 20 for most spending by a single candidate for any House race over the course of 20 months. This was two. The Democrat raised $10 million and spent $8 million, while the Republican spent less than $1 million in that time.

It wasn’t bad. It was higher in those races than in presidential elections, and that was the case in both states. In Wisconsin, roughly 2.4 million ballots were cast (with 95% in), about 30% less than in November. Less than 200,000 people went to the polls in Florida. In the year 2024 it was more than double. So money isn’t everything.

In the off-year and mid-term elections, firing up the bases is key, and that the realignment of collegeeducated voters towards Democrats is helping them in those elections.

The poll found 81% of people in favor of requiring people to show photo ID to vote. That included a large number of Democrats. Only a tiny amount of things get bipartisan support.

So, yes, Democrats can take Tuesday as one of the first bits of good news they’ve had since the 2024 presidential election. But they also have to be aware that there are lots of issues that are still center-right, including voter ID and many measures meant to curb immigration — especially when the party is seeing record lows in favorability.