In Ukraine, the trend lines point to escalation

What did Putin and Russia lose in the first year of the Crimean War? Insights from the Kremlin, the EU, Georgia and Finland

This war is also not some mere territorial dispute he’s likely to give up lightly. It’s born from his belief that Ukraine is not a country and must be folded into Russia. His survival depends on the fact that he is seen to have lost. Since the annexation of Crimea, Putin has been at war with the Ukraine, and the West says it will be in for the long haul.

Putin delivered his remarks days ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor. The Kremlin said that soldiers from the frontlines of Moscow’s “special military operation” were in the audience.

“They can be driven out, or Putin can decide to take his forces back out of Ukraine because he’s in such a bad position,” he said. We know this is happening because of a single man; one man’s desire to take over his neighbor’s territory.

One of the US Presidents who has had to deal with Putin has believed that he was trying to end the game. “He feels a sense of acute urgency that he was losing momentum, and he’s now trying to exit the war in the same way that he entered it. The person in charge has the responsibility of framing the whole terms of any negotiation. “

Putin has lost his troops on the battlefield and is suffering back-to-back losses at home, so he needs a big conscription drive in order to reverse his losses.

According to official data from the EU, Georgia and Kazakhstan, around 220,000 Russians have fled across their borders since the “partial mobilization” was announced. The EU said its numbers – nearly 66,000 – represented a more than 30% increase from the previous week.

CNN is unable to verify the Russian figures, but the 40 kilometers (around 25 miles) traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia, and the long lines at crossings into Kazakhstan and Finland, speak to the backlash and the strengthening perception that Putin is losing his fabled touch at reading Russia’s mood.

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. Why did we end up in this mess? We lost a lot of people.

Petraeus is the one. Putin has only gotten a failing grade so far. It is the most important job of a strategic leader to get the big ideas right and get the overall strategy right. Putin has failed abysmally in that task, leading to the war that made him and his country a pariah, causing over 1,200 western companies to leave Russia, and costing the Russian economy a decade or more.

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

Petraeus: It is certainly possible that Putin could order Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Peter, and we should be concerned about that possibility. However, that would be an incredibly bad decision on his part, as use of such weapons would result in Russia being in a worse situation than it was before their use, rather than a better situation.

Explosive Shockwaves in Ukraine and the Challenge of Ending the Cold War in the Middle East: Vladimir Putin and the Nuclear Threats

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

At least four leaks at the surface of Russia’sNord Streamline 1 and 2 are leaking toxic greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, making them resemble a boiling cauldron and one kilometer across.

Brennan’s analysis is that Russia is the most likely culprit for the sabotage, and that Putin is likely trying to send a message: “It’s a signal to Europe that Russia can reach beyond Ukraine’s borders. Who knows what he is going to do next.

As Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, Putin halted the construction of Nord Stream 2 and reduced the pressure on Russian supplies.

Putin seems to be Losing by most objective standards. His war aims of crushing Ukrainian sovereignty, capturing Kyiv, toppling an elected government, proving Russian might and severing Ukraine’s relationship with the West have backfired terribly. Russia is a pariah state and its economy is in ruins because of international sanctions. Some people are branding Putin a war criminal. Even if a ceasefire deal is reached in the upcoming weeks, it will not be enough to save Ukraine from becoming a NATO client state, which is propped up by the US and Europe, and which will likely require decades of Western support.

Ending the war in Ukraine on terms acceptable to its President Volodymyr Zelensky will require the West to convince Russian leader Vladimir Putin he’s losing.

Putin is expected to say to Germany and France: “we need to end this war, we’re going to protect our territories at all costs, and you need to put pressure on the Ukrainians to settle.”

Putin knows he is in a corner, but doesn’t seem to realize how small a space he has, and that of course is what’s most worrying – would he really make good on his nuclear threats?

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. The composition of Russia’s military force in Ukraine — as much of its prewar active duty personnel has been wounded or killed and its best equipment destroyed or captured — has radically altered over the course of the war. The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. The recent experience indicates that these troops may abandon their positions and equipment in a panic, like they did in the Kharkiv region.

Sept. 28: The officials in occupied parts of Ukranian made a special appeal to join the Russian Federation. Putin’s approval rating fell 6 points to 77% in a poll by the Levada Center. The U.S. Defense Department, meanwhile, announced $1.1 billion in additional security aid to Ukraine.

A statement was made from leaders of nine European countries in support of Ukraine joining NATO. And Pope Francis made a strong plea for Putin to end the war.

You can read past recaps here. More of NPR’s coverage can be found here. You can get updates throughout the day by listening to NPR’s State of Ukraine.

The Chern-Simons-Yukaryan Battle in the Early Stages of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive: CNN’s Michael Bociurkiw

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst. He currently works as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He contributes frequently to CNN Opinion. His own opinions are contained in this commentary. View more opinion at CNN.

It came amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has already taken control of key parts of Russian-controlled territory, such as regions Putin recently annexed.

The strikes followed weeks of Ukrainian ground gains and began two days after a huge explosion damaged the Kerch bridge, the only crossing between the annexed Crimean peninsula and Russia. The blast, used as a justification for Monday’s onslaught, resulted in a significant strategic boost to the Ukrainians.

There are hits near the Taras Shevkovich National University of Kyiv and just a short walk from the Presidential Office Building, as shown on a fake video that was posted on social media. Five people were killed as a result of strikes on the capital, according to Ukrainian officials.

As of midday local time, the area around my office remained quiet, with reports that three missiles and five drones were shot down. Normally near the restaurants would be packed with customers and people chattering about plans for upcoming weddings and parties.

On Sunday, Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. Many people were killed and injured.

In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. Denys Shmyhal said that at least 11 important infrastructure facilities in the country’s eight regions and the capital have been damaged.

The scenes were similar to the early days of the war when Russian forces were close to the capital. In the shelter section of the metro station a group of people took cover from a small group singing patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

Just as many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, and with countless asylum seekers returning home, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence.

The only bridge connecting mainland Russia and the Black Sea peninsula is symbolism that can’t be overstated. The attack took place a day after his 70th birthday, which adds to the embarrassment and shame of an aging autocrat.

It seems as if dictators are fond of hardwiring newly claimed territory with record-breaking infrastructure projects. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. After Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong, it was necessary to connect the former Portuguese and British territory with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

What Do Ukrainians Tell Us About Putin’s Crimes: The Importance of Cold War to the Security of the West and the Humanitarian Crisis?

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

Sitting still was not an option for Putin, who was consumed with self-interest. He unleashed more death and destruction by using the force that likely comes from a former KGB agent.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

The enormous US and western support of Ukraine means, Petraeus observes, that while the Russians may be preparing to send hundreds of thousands of soldiers into Ukraine in a new offensive, they will face off in the coming months with better-trained and better-organized Ukrainian soldiers armed with American longer-range missiles, armored vehicles and a tremendous amount of ammunition. And Petraeus says his money is still on the Ukrainians.

What is crucially important now is for Washington and other allies to use urgent telephone diplomacy to urge China and India – which presumably still have some leverage over Putin – to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.

Anything short of these measures will only allow Putin to continue his senseless violence and further exacerbate a humanitarian crisis that will reverberate throughout Europe. A weak reaction will be taken as a sign in the Kremlin that it can continue to weaponize energy, migration and food.

The Cold War Between Ukraine and the West is Going Through a Phase of Criticality: Why Russia is Prepping for the Next Phase of the War

Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. Winter is close and there is an urgent need to protect heating systems.

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. “This is now the third, fourth, possibly fifth different war that we’ve been observing,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.

All of this explains why western strategists see the next phase of the war as critical, as Russian forces prepare for an apparent spring offensive and Ukraine awaits the arrival of recently pledged western tanks that it hopes will turn the tide.

“What seemed a distant prospect for anything that could be convincingly described as a Ukraine victory is now very much more plausible,” Giles said. “The response from Russia is likely to escalate further.”

Monday’s attacks, and further strikes throughout the week, were evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out after a series of setbacks in the war that have put him under pressure domestically.

Ukrainian troops hoist the country’s flag above a building in Vysokopillya, in the southern Kherson region, last month. Ukrainian officials say they have liberated hundreds of settlements since their counter-offensive began.

Russian troops have been withdrawn from a large portion of the Kherson region. Another problem for Putin are attacks this week against air force bases deep inside Russia. Russian officials strengthened border defensive positions Wednesday as new signs emerged that much of the country has been put on security alert.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

“Otherwise, Russia will just wait it out,” said Dougherty. Now, after being pushed back in Ukraine’s Fall offensive, “they have a smaller front” to defend.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Russia is poised to launch an offensive to take portions of the southeast of the country that they do not control, while also setting up defensive positions in other areas that they control in the south.

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

“There are so many reasons why there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly,” Giles said. The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure being destroyed in Ukranian itself, will be a test of resilience for the Western backers of the country.

Most of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted on Monday and Tuesday by Russian missile attacks, but the national electricity company says it has since been restored. But Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that “there is a lot of work to do” to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.

Experts believe it remains unlikely that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern; while estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” Jeremy Fleming, a UK’s spy chief, said in a rare speech on Tuesday.

“Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the ISW assessed.

The success rates of Ukrainian intercepts of Russian cruise missiles have increased since February, according to a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

The impact of such an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited; Belarus has around 45,000 active duty troops, which would not significantly bolster Russia’s reserves. But it would threaten another assault on Ukraine’s northern flank below the Belarusian border.

Giles said that the reopening of the northern front would be a new challenge for Ukraine. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has wanted more long-range missile systems for a long time. Zelensky asked for more air defense help in his conversation with Biden, who thanked the US for its continued support. He said that Russian missile terror has decimated half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

He said that NATO Allies shot down most of the incoming missiles because these air defense systems are making a difference.

The IRIS-T arrived in the Ukranian area this week from Germany, and the NASAMS was expected from the US. , Bronk said.

Vladimir Putin is not interested in the future of war for Ukraine, but wants to run into obstacles — a keynote speaker at the Cipher Brief conference

Giles said that Russia could make the war personal by trying to force governments in Europe to remove their support for Ukraine.

Petraeus. It could if Putin mobilized all of Russia successfully. However, to date, the mobilizations have been partial, as Putin seems to fear how the country might respond to total mobilization. In fact, reportedly, more Russian men left the country than reported to the mobilization stations in response to the latest partial call-up of reserves.

Ukrainian officials have warned for many years about a renewed Russian offensive, and asked for more powerful weapons from their Western allies to counter the threat.

” Even if President Zelenskyy reached a conclusion that maybe we should stop the punishment, we should negotiate.” I don’t think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.

Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.

The person is Petraeus. I think we should recognize that, with a few exceptions, Ukraine is not the future of warfare. It is what we would have seen if the Cold War started getting hot in the mid 1980s, with mostly Cold War weapons systems.

The chief of staff to Zelenskyy told the conference that the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite. “Putin’s memory of running into obstacles is his biggest strength,” said a statement by Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

“That is basically a metaphor for a bridge burning,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

— And to Ukrainians hunkered down in basements and to soldiers on the front line, he proved that they are not alone as Russian attacks on their power plants effectively weaponize winter.

What Happened in the Georgia War: A Tale of Two Faces and One Face — A View from CNN’s David A. Andelman

No one at the Georgia conference said the war was close to an end. “Most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes out of stalemate or defeat, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.

The war started with a Russian invasion, he said, and is as intense now as it ever was. Greg Myre is a national security correspondent for NPR. Follow him @gregmyre1.

There’s a lot of difficulty making wartime assessments as the war has gone through many phases and one side has an advantage. The Ukrainians defeated the Russians in the battle for Kyiv, only to see Russia grind forward during the brutal fighting in the Donbas over the summer.

David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN and author of A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still HAPPEN, is a member of the French Legion of Honor. He was a correspondent for CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Russian Arms are Getting More Frustrated by a Violation of the Crimea Conspiracy: An Interview with Michael Kofman

Nine months in, Russian hopes of a swift seizure have been well and truly dashed, its army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines strung along the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine.

The reality is that there is little real value to any truce, whether or not linked to negotiations. Russia’s back is getting increasingly to the wall, as a result of a truce.

“The only thing a premature truce does is it allows both parties to re-arm,” Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the CNA think tank and a leading expert on the Russian military, told me in an interview.

Already, Russia is beginning to rearm, experts say. “Ammunition availability” was one of the “most determinative aspects of this war,” said Kofman. If you burn through 9 million rounds, it’s impossible to make them in a month. So the issue is what is the ammunition production rate and what can be mobilized?” he added.

The manufacture of bombs has gone from 2 to 3 a day, and some of the factories in Russia have shifted to three a day, according to Kofman. He said that it is likely that they wouldn’t double and triple shifts if they had component parts.

Negotiating with the Kremlin: Putin’s Bet to Make Russia Great Again by Treating Ukraine as an Islamic State – A View from the Pentagon

Seize the opportunity when peace can be achieved. Seize the moment,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff said recently.

Petro Poroshenko, former Ukranian president, told the Council on Foreign Relations that Ukrainians understand negotiations. You are sitting in your own house, the killer comes to your house and kills your wife, then Rapes your daughter, and opens the door to the second floor and says, “OK come here.” Let’s go through a negotiation. What would you make of it?

The US military had assessed it would take as long as until May for the Russian military to regenerate enough power for a sustained offensive, but Russian leaders wanted action sooner. The US now sees it as likely that Russian forces are moving before they are ready due to political pressure from the Kremlin, the senior US military official told CNN.

That’s “basically any big command post or ammo dump they pulled back beyond the 80-kilometer range,” he explained. And in many cases, just inside Russian territory – which Ukraine has given Washington assurances it would not target with rocket systems supplied by the US.

The old bullets were old. CNN’s Ellie Kaufman and Liebermann reported earlier this week on a US military official who says Russian forces have had to resort to 40-year-old artillery ammunition as their supplies of new ammo are “rapidly dwindling.”

The Russians are willing to exchange soldiers and shells. The Russians think NATO and Western allies won’t be willing to make those trades in the future. Eventually it will push them to negotiate. That, I totally believe, is Putin’s bet,” said Dougherty.

Petraeus. This question gets at one of the ironies of the situation. Putin wanted to make Russia great again. NATO has been made great again by his actions, which include NATO membership for two historically neutral powers,Finland and Sweden; increased defense spending by NATO members, most notably Germany; and augmentation of NATO forces in the Baltic states and eastern Europe.

He said that at some point they will get tired of this war. The Russian mentality may be that we don’t have everything we wanted. But we’ll have a big chunk of the Donbas and will annex that into Russia and we’ll hold onto Crimea. And I think that’s kind of their bet right now.”

At the same time, a truce would also allow the West to rebuild rapidly depleting arsenals that have been drained by materiel sent to Ukraine, even upgrade what’s been supplied.

But were the war to resume months or years from now, there’s a real question as to whether the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many are beginning to wish was already over.

Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than planned — and why his nuclear weapons are better than other power systems, not just for the West –

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than planned but he said that his country’s nuclear weapons are preventing the war from getting worse.

More than 9 months have passed since Russia launched its invasion of Libya, causing millions of dollars in damage and leaving tens of thousands dead and wounded. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He repeated that he had no choice but to send in troops and that the West had only responded to Russia’s security demands with spit in the face.

Speaking in a televised meeting in Russia with members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as “a significant result for Russia,” noting that the Sea of Azov “has become Russia’s internal sea.” “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water was one of the many historic references he made to a Russian leader.

After failing to take the capital of Ukraine, Russia seized broad swaths of southernUkraine at the beginning of the invasion and later captured the Sea of Azov port of Mariupol. While his troops didn’t completely control the four Ukrainian regions, in September Putin illegally annexed them. He had annexed the Ukrainian Peninsula in the summer of 2014).

“If it doesn’t use it first under any circumstances, it means that it won’t be the second to use it, either, because the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be sharply limited,” he said.

Putin rejected Western criticism that his previous nuclear weapons comments amounted to saber-rattling, claiming they were “not a factor provoking an escalation of conflicts, but a factor of deterrence.”

We’ve not gone mad. We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are,” Putin said. He said that they are more advanced and state of theart than other nuclear power has.

Ukraine’s Patriot system is too complex to send to Ukraine, as Russia has not done so in the last four years of the Russian Revolutionary War

There was no mention of Russia’s setbacks in the war and its failure to remove the elected government from Ukraine in Putin’s address.

The governor of the Kursk region posted pictures of the new anti-tank barriers in open fields. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. In neighboring Belgorod, workers were expanding anti-tank barriers and officials were organizing “self-defense units.” Belgorod has seen many fires and explosions and the governor said that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.

The Russian air bases were hit by drones on Monday more than 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Moscow didn’t claim responsibility for its actions.

Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. The private Ukrainian power utility Ukrenergo said it was making repairs in eastern areas that had temperatures that were as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.

It requires a relatively large number of personnel to be trained, according to CNN’s Barbara Starr and Oren Liebermann, who were first to report the US is close to sending the system to Ukraine.

“Earlier, many experts, including those overseas, questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of directly dragging the US army into combat,” Zakharova said at a briefing in Moscow.

Until then, US officials had argued that the Patriot system was too complex and scarce to give to Ukraine. Russia’s targeted campaign on civilian infrastructure jettisoned those arguments.

Asked Thursday about Russian warnings that the Patriot system would be “provocative,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. The comments wouldn’t have an effect on the US aid to Ukraine.

It was ironic that the officials from a country that brutally attacked its neighbour in an illegal and unprovoked invasion chose to use words like “provocative” to describe their defensive systems.

The defense ministry shared a video of the installation of a intercontinental missile into the Kaluga region for the commander of the Kozelsky missile formation.

Appearing this week on Russian state TV, Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region suggested Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

The Rise and Fall of Ukraine: The Rise of the United States and What We Can Learn From Its Cold War-Implications for the War in the War with Ukraine

Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

In an interview with The Economist published Thursday, Zelensky also rejected the idea recently suggested by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Ukraine seek to reclaim only land seized by Russia since February 2022 and not areas like Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the French news outlet France 24 this week, before the Patriot missile development, that the alliance still has two main objectives: provide aid to Ukraine and also make sure that NATO forces don’t become directly involved and escalate the war.

The official said that when you load the guns you hope that they will fire or explode.

The effect of months of military aid. It’s a completely different scale, but CNN reported last month the US is running low on some weapons systems and munitions it provides to Ukraine. The US aid debate will be spiced with that storyline, when Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next month and promise more scrutiny of US aid for Ukraine.

In the trenches. CNN’s Will Ripley has reported on trenches and fortifications being built along the Ukrainian-Bacau border, with concern about Russia once again assembling troops. Ripley talks to a sewing machine repairman turned tank driver.

Clinton said no one is asking for a blank check. “I believe that the Ukrainians have proven that they are a really good investment for the United States. They aren’t asking us to join their fight. They’re fighting it themselves. They’re asking us and our allies for the means to not only defend themselves but to actually win.”

The speech connected the fight of Ukrainian people to the revolution of ours and to remind us that we should be warm in our homes for Christmas and to think about all the families that will be stranded in the cold.

The person is Petraeus. There will be a number of new features this year, the most significant of which are Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles on the Ukrainian side.

The American War on the Warfront: a Hero’s Welcome to Washington, D.C., CNN’s Meanwhile in America

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

Clinton thinks thatPutin is thinking about how to put bodies of Russian conscripts into the fight in Ukraine.

The December 22 edition of CNN’s Meanwhile in America featured a story about US politics for global readers. Click here to read previous editions.

The Ukrainian president, who had been forced to wear a green military uniform since Russia invaded his country, traveled to Washington, DC on Wednesday for his first trip outside of his country. He said he was thankful for America’s multi-billion dollar weapons and ammunition but still would ask for more.

Putin wanted to show Russians they are fighting a war that can’t be won, and so he sent a signal of heroic resistance by flying to Washington on a US Air Force jet.

The comic actor-turned-wartime hero effectively put the fate of millions of Ukrainians in the hands of American lawmakers, taxpayers and families at a time when there is growing skepticism among the incoming Republican House majority about the cost of US involvement.

At an emotional peak of his speech in the House chamber, Zelensky handed speaker Nancy Pelosi and vice president a Ukrainian flag he retrieved from the hottest battle front at Bakhmut.

He said that his heroes had asked him to send the flag to the congress, and they wanted them to make decisions that could save millions of people.

Zelensky gave a deep thanks for tens of billions of dollars in aid and weapons offered to Americans. Implicitly, he argued they couldn’t abandon this gritty, independence hero without also suppressing something of their own patriotic national identify.

His larger message was that the fight in Ukraine wasn’t just about a personal dispute, but a conflict that spanned an entire empire. His fight is to save global democracy, and it is America’s fight.

The hero’s welcome the Ukrainian leader received in the chamber was intended to shame the House Republican members who wanted to stop aid.

Zelensky’s Grit Debfying Russia: Towards a Resolution of the Putin-Russia Constraints On The Status of the Cold War

Zelensky made it clear that the West is united in its support of Biden when he said Wednesday the conflict with Russia should end on Putin’s terms.

They will celebrate Christmas, maybe with a candle. Not because it’s more romantic, no, but because there will be no electricity,” he said. Even if Christmas is without electricity, the light of our faith will not be put out.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/22/world/volodymyr-zelensky-grit-defiance/index.html

Zelensky and the War on Crime in the White House: What Will the USA Do next? A Memorino from the Great American Prime Minister, John D. Pelosi

Is there going to be anything after thePatriots are installed? After that, we will send another signal to President Biden that we would like to get more Patriots,” Zelensky said during a White House news conference. In his address to Congress, he said: “We have artillery, yes, thank you. We have it. Is it enough? Honestly, not really.” Both times, he was joking but that didn’t mean that he wasn’t deadly serious. In his address to Congress, Zelensky pleaded with Washington to send more offensive weapons to spur victory.

The president has limited the power of the weapons he sends to the battle, balancing the need to defend a European democracy with the desire not to cause a disaster in a fight with Russia and to avoid crossing often invisible red lines.

“Now you say, why don’t we just give Ukraine everything there is to give?” Biden said at the White House, explaining that pushing overwhelming force into Ukraine would risk fracturing the transatlantic consensus needed to support the war.

Zelensky also had a message for some members of the incoming GOP House majority, who are skeptical of massive aid for Ukraine, and the possible new House speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who warned again after the speech on Wednesday that he did not support a blank check for Ukraine.

However, given partisan fury that will erupt in a divided Washington next year, there is no guarantee that America’s lawmakers will even be able to fund their own government – let alone one fighting for its survival thousands of miles away.

Several Republican members who have expressed reservations about aid to Ukraine didn’t applaud when Zelensky was introduced.

Zelensky remembered an earlier visit to Washington that began 81 years ago, when another leader of a bomb-torn nation was desperate for the US to help him turn his country around. Pelosi said that her father, who was a Maryland congressman, heard the British Prime Minister address Congress on December 26, 1941. Zelensky borrowed one of the greatest lines from the great man, as he also presented himself as the symbol of defiance.

Kiev Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: Ukraine’s goal of a peace summit in the anniversary of Russia’s war

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the anniversary of Russia’s war.

But Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Associated Press that Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first.

Kuleba said he was absolutely satisfied with the results of Zelenskyy’s visit, as well as the plan the U.S. made to have the missile battery ready to go. The training can take up to a year.

Kuleba stated during the interview that Ukraine will do whatever it can to victory in the war, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role.

He said the United Nations was the best venue for the summit because they were not about making a favor to a particular country. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.”

Zelenskyy presented a peace formula at the Group of 20 summit that included the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of prisoners, and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.

About Guterres’ role, Kuleba said: “He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. His active participation would be welcomed.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145539638/ukraine-russia-peace-summit-foreign-minister

The U.S. is ready to confront Russia in a war against Russia, and Putin is prepared to follow Putin’s lead on the ground and air war

“They frequently say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite,” he said.

Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. was the first time he had gone outside the country during the war. Kuleba praised Washington’s efforts and underlined the significance of the visit.

Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S., stated that it shows how important the United States is to both Ukrainians and Americans.

He stated that the U.S. government made a program to speed up the training so that it wouldn’t have an effect on the effectiveness of the weapon on the battlefield.

While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” He said that the training will take place outside of Ukraine.

During Russia’s ground and air war in Ukraine, Kuleba has been second only to Zelenskyy in carrying Ukraine’s message and needs to an international audience, whether through Twitter posts or meetings with friendly foreign officials.

Russia must not be allowed to continue to be a member of the UN Security Council and be excluded from the world body, Ukrainian officials said on Monday. Kuleba said they were prepared for this step to uncover fraud and deprive Russia of its status.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian never went through legal procedures to become a member of the United Nations, according to the Foreign Ministry.

U.S. Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov and a Ukrainian Military spokesperson warned of the dangers of red lines during the Cuban Missile Crisis

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

America should focus on three things. First, it should no longer declare that there are measures it will refrain from taking, and weapons systems it will not provide, to support Ukraine. There is an unforced concession to signal restraint. Worse, it emboldens Russia to probe for, and try to impose, further limits on U.S. action — making the war more, not less, risky.

Following Danilov’s comments, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Wednesday that there a signs Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive in southern Ukraine.

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

“During the week military representatives from the two countries will practice planning their use of troops based on their experience in the past,” the ministry’s statement said.

A British official told CNN that it is unlikely that the Russian forces will be better organized and that they will be less successful.

A senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN that they only had enough manpower to take one or two small cities. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia massing its aircraft ahead of an aerial operation.

Open-source war in Ukraine: How much? What technology do they use to help? — Peter Bergen, a former senior security analyst at Arizona State University

CNN’s national security analyst is Peter Bergen, and he is also a professor at Arizona State University. CNN has more opinion on it.

Is it the first true open-source war? The war in Ukraine is being fought in part on social media by Zelensky; commercial overhead satellites capture Russian battle groups moving around in real-time, and the social media accounts of Russian mercenaries in the Wagner Group document what they are doing.

Petraeus: Not completely. I explained the difficulties I expected Russia to endure in an interview with The Atlantic, which I had just published, and noted that the force of 190,000 that would be required was far less than I thought it would be.

Petraeus: It’s not Russia. Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine’s southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

It had gained a lot in Kharkiv province. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river.

There is a stalemate at the moment, with Russia making costly attacks and both sides building up their forces for the late winter and summer months of the Ukrainians.

What technologies have made inroads into the Ukrainians’ war effort? In the case of the Starlink mobile satellite systems, the Russians destroyed the phone system and jammed it, but they still kept contact with the Ukrainians. Russian targets have been decimated by US-supplied precision rockets. Clearview AI, a controversial facial recognition technology used by some US police departments, has enabled the Ukrainians to identify Russian soldiers on the battlefield. TB2 Turkish armed drones have proven devastating to Russian targets and cheap commercial drones have helped the Ukrainians find targets.

Perhaps most notably, of course, we see a war taking place, for the first time, in a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet connectivity, and social media and other internet sites.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

Russia is not going to die: How will we survive in the Cold War? Commentary on “How Ukraine war endeds Bergen Ctpr” by Alexander Petraeus

And there would incomparably greater numbers of vastly more capable unmanned systems (some remotely piloted, others operating according to algorithms) in every domain – not just in the air, but also at sea, sub-sea, on the ground, in outer space, and in cyberspace, and operating in swarms, not just individually!

I recall an saying from the Cold War days, “If it can be seen, it can be hit; if it can be hit, it can be killed.” We don’t have the capabilities needed to really operate that adage in those days. In the future, however, just about everything – certainly every platform, base and headquarters – will be seen and thus be susceptible to being hit and destroyed (unless there are substantial defenses and hardening of those assets).

Imagining all this underscores, of course, that we must take innumerable actions to transform our forces and systems. We must make sure that we don’t end up with a conflict because of questions about our abilities or willingness to use them, and we must do everything we can to make sure that the competition does not turn into conflict among them.

The description of NATO as suffering from brain death by French president in late 2019, was more than a little premature, thanks to Putin.

Petraeus discussed all of the above. Poor campaign design, poor training, poor command, control, and communications are just some of the things that were not done well during the time they were stationed on the north, east, and south of Ukraine.

Petraeus: not at all. Russia still has enormous military capacity, as well as a country with abundant resources such as minerals and agricultural land. It also has a population (about 145 million) that is nearly double that of the next largest European countries (Germany and Turkey, each just more than 80 million).

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

The Ukraine War Ends Bergen-Ctpr : How Did the Soviet Union Become the Most Important Country in the Cold War?

And it is still led by a kleptocratic dictator who embraces innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views that severely undermine his decision-making.

Stalin used to say, “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia has a far bigger population than Ukraine: Will that make a critical difference to the Ukraine war over the long term?

Over one million new recruits are being sent to the frontlines, with up to 100,000 more on the way. And that is not trivial – because quantity does, indeed, matter.

Ukrainians know what they are fighting for when it comes to the Russian soldiers, while it’s not clear that the same is true of the Russian soldiers.

It’s true that all of those technologies have proven important and the Ukrainians have demonstrated enormous skill adapting various technologies and commercial applications to enable intelligence gathering, targeting and other military tasks.

The Ukrainians have shown that they can adapt Western missiles for use on the Russian aircraft, repair battle damaged vehicles left on the battlefield and much more.

To be sure, there have been times when I have felt that we should have decided to provide various capabilities (e.g., HIMARS, longer-range precision munitions, tanks, etc.) We have not been sooner than that.

The transition from eastern bloc aircraft to western ones is going to have to happen eventually. There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.

It will take about a year to train pilots and maintenance personnel but we can begin the process now. I think the Administration did an impressive job and has been proven to be the most important nation in this situation for many other situations around the world.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How should the Chinese attack Taiwan? — A remark on how Russia might end up killing convicts in the meat grinder of the toughest battles

Bergen: The quasi-private Wagner Group is the force that Putin sends into the meat grinder of the toughest battles. I wonder if anyone has thoughts on using convicts as mercenaries as a tactic.

As you point out, Russia has done something that is innovative but also inhumane with its use of mercenaries and the fact that they are thrown in to battle as cannon fodder.

These are not tactics that foster development of well-trained, disciplined, Capable, and cohesive units that have trust in their leaders and soldiers on their right and left.

Should the Chinese go ahead and attack Taiwan, rather than over a neighboring land border, because it would be over a body of water? Can the sinking of the Moskva, Russia’s Black Sea navy, affect how the Chinese think about this question?

And especially if the target of such an operation has a population willing to fight fiercely for its survival and be supported by major powers – not just militarily but with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.

Petrais: Yes, I believe it is. This is the first war in which smartphones and social media have been so widely available and also so widely employed. The result is unprecedented transparency and an extraordinary amount of information available – all through so-called “open sources.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

The End of the Cold War: The Case for a United States Security Guarantee and a High-Cost Solution to the Problem of Combined Arms

The limitations of the professional capabilities of the Russian forces and their demonstrated inability to generate a combined arms effect, do not seem to be a particularly innovative new plan.

You asked a rhetorical question at the beginning of the Iraq War, “tell me how this ends?” How does the war in Ukraine end?

It is possible for the US to get an ironclad security guarantee if NATO membership does not happen whenUkraine reaches the limits of its ability to resist missile and drone strikes.

The United States and Western allies are looking for a show of unity and strength to establish once and for all that NATO was in the conflict for the long haul and until Moscow was defeated.

The Western rhetorical and diplomatic offensive will ratchet up further as Vice President Kamala Harris heads to the Munich Security Conference this week. Next week the President will travel to Poland and a frontline NATO state, which will bolster his legacy as a leader who gave the best leadership of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.

The Prospect of Ending the War in Ukraine and the Future of the United World: A View from the House of Representatives of the House Armed Services Committee

The new Republican majority in the US House are not sure what to think. The Florida GOP congressman demanded an end to aid to Ukraine and a demand that all sides reach a peace agreement. A bipartisan majority for saving Ukraine still exists in the House and the Senate. But it’s not certain Biden can guarantee massive multi-billion dollar aid packages for Ukraine in perpetuity. And US aid might be in serious doubt if ex-President Donald Trump or another Republican wins the 2024 election.

The outside world knows Putin is not contemplating defeat or an exit from the war because of the complete lack of any diplomatic framework for ceasefire talks.

Fiona Hill, a leading expert on Russia and Putin, who worked in Trump’s White House, said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday that there were few signs Putin’s determination is waning.

The prospect of China leaning on Putin for an end to the war was remote even before the lurch in US-China relations caused by the flight of a Chinese spy balloon across the US this month.

The US preoccupied with a proxy war against Russia, as it escalates its challenge to American power in Asia, may be an advantage for Beijing, even if it might be embarrassed at the performance of Putin in Ukraine.

Sherman said at an event that there would be an albatross around your neck if China and Russia tighten their relations, though he admitted that the US was concerned about the situation.

The Chancellor of Germany said Friday it is wise to be prepared for a long war in Ukraine and that the allies will remain together.

“The really important decision we should take all together is saying that we are willing to do it as long as necessary, and that we will do our best,” the chancellor said.

I’m sure that Putin didn’t expect that there would be a united world. He never thought the partnership would work as well as it has.

“We just do it together with our friends and partners, and especially with the United States,” Scholz said, adding that he really appreciates his government’s “strong alliance” with the US.

Democratic Reply to Corresponding Speaker Paulini’s Question to the White House on the Future of the War Between the United States and Ukraine

“I learned many are not able to deliver the most modern things … but in the ones they are delivering we will give the support as well,” Scholz said. “And as you know, there is also a big number of older tanks which we will deliver.”

There was concerns about the need for a permanent production of the most important weapons.

The German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the conference is more important than ever since the Russian invasion.

Two leading House Republicans have called on President Joe Biden to increase military support to Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion and reiterated support on both sides of the aisle for continuing to fund the Ukrainian war effort.

Texas congressman Mike McCaul told a CNN interviewer that bipartisan support for the people of Ukrainian is still very strong.

McCaul warned that if the conflict continues, it could allow anti-Ukrainian dissent to build, and could hurt Russia.

Biden administration officials play into Russian leader Vladimir if they drag this out. Putin holding up his hands. The Texas Republican stated that he wanted this to be a long, lasting war because he knows that the American people will not approve and therefore the Congress will not approve.

Asked by Brown if he believes the US is considering sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, McCaul replied, “I hope so,” and reiterated his concern over a drawn-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine while noting, “I think the momentum is building for this to happen.”

Turner equated the resolution to a letter more than two dozen progressive House Democrats sent the White House last fall, asking it to pursue diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine. The letter was taken down.

“You have a handful on both sides, both sides, Pamela, who have been cautious or who have said that they don’t support, or they want support to come to an end,” he said from Munich. “There are 435 members of Congress. There are a few hundred that are going in this direction and path.

The issue of national security against Chinese threats, and the case for a more comprehensive response of China to the 2021 launch of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile

“This balloon, by the way, had a lot of American parts in it. We know that the hypersonic missile that went around the world with precision was built on the backbone of American technology,” McCaul said, referring to Beijing’s test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in 2021.

“They steal a lot of this from us. But we don’t have to sell them the very technology they can put in their advanced weapons systems to then turn against either Taiwan in the Pacific or eventually, possibly the United States of America. I think there’s great bipartisanship on this issue,” he added.

McCaul said that the tension between the countries is very high and both the Democrats and Republicans want to confront Chinese threats.

“I think we have a unique opportunity to be bipartisan on this issue of national security against one of the greatest threats to this country, and the world, for that matter,” McCaul said.

No one wants a cold war but that is not the issue. What we want is a China that is not going to be an aggressor state, that’s not going to be building up its military and threatening the United States, and certainly not making the negative comments that it’s making instead of just openly apologizing for sending a spy balloon over our most sensitive military sites,” Turner said.

According to The Post, the administration is even qualifying the meaning of President Biden’s State of the Union pledge to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” It quotes an administration official saying, “‘As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict,” but “it doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.”

This is not a good idea. The remarkable success of the Ukrainian military, despite being pushed to mount a premature offensive, could have catastrophic results. It will take time for Ukraine to receive the deliveries of advanced Western tanks, for example. And deploying those tanks before Ukrainian soldiers are fully trained and before Ukraine has a maintenance infrastructure in place could result in unacceptable losses and squandered resources.

A Moment of Silence with a Promise to End World War II: Putin’s Defense of the Soviet Union During the First Russian World War

Putin called on people present to stand for a moment of silence, acknowledging Russia’s losses in the war. The Russian leader also promised a range of social support packages for families of the fallen.

Russia is not withdrawing from the treaty, despite Putin’s statement that he is suspending Russia’s participation.

Signed in 2010, New Start came into force in 2011, and was extended till 2026. It caps the number of nukes Russia and the US can have. The two countries have the majority of deployable warheads.

Regular inspections under the agreement, to make sure neither side is cheating, were put on hold in March 2020 during the pandemic. Russia postponed talks to restart those inspections, as relations between Moscow and Washington continued to deteriorate over Ukraine.

Putin also said he’d instructed his military and civilian atomic energy agency to be prepared to test additional nuclear weapons – should the U.S. carry out new tests first.

Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State, described Russia’s decision as unfortunate and irresponsible. The U.S. has previously accused Russia of violating the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries.

At the same time, Ukraine has continued to press for newer and more sophisticated weapons, including longer-range missile systems and fighter jets, requests the US has denied previously. During Biden’s dramatic, surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, Zelensky pressed Biden on both, hoping a personal appeal would finally sway him.

Putin presented a now-familiar list of grievances against the West, including what he described as its moral and spiritual collapse whose values, he said, threaten the children of Russia. Moscow Patriarch Kirill was seated in the front row in the hall.

The Russian leader again equated Ukraine’s “neo Nazi” government with Nazi Germany, and said Russia was defending itself just as the Soviet Union defended its territory during World War II.

Putin’s speech in effect made good on an overdue commitment: the Kremlin repeatedly delayed and then ultimately canceled last year’s address amid a trickle of bad news from the battlefield in Ukraine.

Today’s speech starts a series of connected and choreographed events, including an extraordinary session of both chambers of the parliament on Wednesday when Putin will speak to a mass rally in Moscow.

It was precisely a year ago that the Russian leader called for the formal recognition of two pro-Russian separatist republics in eastern Ukraine — pronouncing international diplomatic efforts to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity and find a diplomatic solution to a simmering conflict in the Donbas “futile.”

Putin then assembled his National Security Council for a televised session to discuss the independence issue — now famous for the image of the Russian leader holding court across a vast hallway to consult with, in theory, his closest advisors.

Back in Washington, the attacks were a game-changer. President Joe Biden was so outraged by the threat to civilians that he directed the Pentagon to find a way to get Ukraine America’s most advanced missile defense system, the Patriot – a move his administration had previously dismissed.

At key inflection points – from the decision to provide howitzers in April, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers in June and tanks last month – the ratcheting up of US security assistance has been matched or complemented by allies.

Even as the process has gotten more organized, with US equipment now often landing in Ukraine within days of Biden approving a security package, the urgency persists.

The US would follow through on sweeping sanctions, while Biden detailed his intent to give more security assistance to Ukraine than any other country has had in the past. Biden made the pledge “crystal clear,” a senior administration official recalled.

Joint Chiefs of Staff Meetings with Defense Secretary Jake Sullivan and Gen. Zelensky on the Ukraine Air Defense Campaign: The U.S. Military Aid Reservations One Year

Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff all speak with their counterparts multiple times a week.

Sullivan and Milley have a lot of calls with Zelensky, as well as with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny of the armed forces of Ukraine. These calls give Sullivan and Milley a chance to get the latest reports from the battlefield and assess the Ukrainian military’s needs.

Ukrainian requests through these various channels are then funneled over to the Pentagon, where officials conduct rigorous analysis of the requests to assess the impact they will have on the battlefield, how quickly the Ukrainians can train and integrate the new weapons and the impact of transferring the weapons on US military readiness.

One senior State Department official said they had “never seen this bureaucracy work as fast as it’s working,” but added, “We all need to do more, faster.”

A senior administration official said the president was angry about what happened and that he pressed his teams to look at what they could do to help.

Biden was worried that Russia’s campaign on civilian infrastructure would leave the air defense ofUkraine too thin to protect its frontline troops or its cities.

At the White House, where Sullivan hosts a daily meeting of key National Security Council officials to coordinate the government-wide effort to support Ukraine, that launched an effort to get US allies to also get Ukraine more air defense capabilities.

“We really went around the world and found for them, not only additional systems that other countries had and persuade them to transfer them, but parts,” the official said, allowing Ukraine to get non-operational S-300 systems back online.

“At every stage of conflict, we have adapted to make sure the Ukrainians had what they needed to be successful – and they have,” a senior administration official said. They have adapted.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/politics/ukraine-us-military-aid-reservations-one-year/index.html

The Ukrainian Army as a Mechanized Artillery War: a Primer for the European Commission and the War on Nuclear Proton Decay

The European Commission will have a proposal on how to increase production of bullets in March, according to a senior European official. The official noted that it is a complex problem, because ammunition production is expensive and will require that the defense industry upgrade its facilities.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this month that Europe and NATO’s production capacity needs to be ramped up if the West is going to meet Ukraine’s needs.

The Ukrainian military has instinctively wanted to fight an artillery war, US officials say, which involves firing a crushing amount of heavy artillery at the enemy’s defensive lines.

US officials have urged Ukraine to shift to a maneuver warfare style of fighting used by the US and other modern militaries – that is, fighting that uses rapid, unanticipated movements and a combination of different combat arms rather than relying too heavily on artillery.

The first group of Ukrainians trained in this style of fighting successfully completed their course in Germany last week, according to a Pentagon press secretary. The man who was the general was Pat Ryder. The second group of more than 700 soldiers has already begun the five-week training course.

National Security Council official John Kirby said last week that US officials have provided input on a peace plan Zelensky has been showcasing.

There are calls for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes and the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the plan.

The allies are getting to the realization that this will be a longer war, according to the defense secretary of the country. “It’s going to be an extremely costly war and in order to manage this strategy, you need to have an end goal.”

Zelensky’s room to maneuver in terms of what he is willing to accept has “gotten a little smaller” as Russia’s atrocities have grown, however, the senior State Department official said.

The senior State Department official said that the US understands the position. An end goal “has to be something that any democratically elected leader in Ukraine can sell to his or her public,” the official said. I think he wants to get there.

Secretary Austin said that the victor of the contest would be decided byUkraine. I don’t want to speak for Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian people.

We’re going to concentrate on what’s in front of us and putUkraine in a great position to succeed. It’s possible that the fighting continues or they decide to negotiate, so I think we will be inUkraine, again, a good a good place, no matter what happens.

I don’t want to speculate at this point. I think, you know, my goal is to provide the capabilities required to achieve their objectives. My and the chairman’s focus is going to be on that.

Vladimir Putin’s Planck-Rotating War and the Fate of the U.S. Forces in the Age of D-Asia

Putin is in a bad position and could take his forces back out of Ukraine if he wants to. That could happen as well. He could do this today. And we all know that this is this war is happening because of one man; one man’s desire to erase his neighbor’s boundaries and occupy his neighbor’s territory. And this is, again, unjustified, unprovoked. And Putin could end this at any point in time in the future.

Large numbers of troops from Russia are ill trained and ill equipped. In many cases, those troops are meeting their demise in short order. We can expect more of that.