The wind forecast for L.A. was less than expected but could pick up Wednesday

Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office: Predictions for the Next Few Days of a “Second Class” of Extreme Weather Events

Los Angeles and Ventura counties are bracing for more strong winds, which are expected to increase over the next few days. These will create dangerous conditions and the possibility of new wildfires, even as multiple blazes continue to burn across already decimated areas.

The Los Angeles County Sheriff said the number of people under an order has dropped from 92,000 to 89,000. But new evacuation warnings and orders are expected to be issued as high winds return over the next few days.

The winds along with extremely dry conditions and low humidity will lead to a “particularly dangerous situation,” with red flag warning conditions by late Monday night through Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service.

“And then we’re looking out to the future to see what happens with the weather forecast with an additional round of Santa Ana winds possible next week,” he said.

Robert Clark, a fire behavior analyst for Cal Fire, was relieved Tuesday’s winds weren’t as strong as they were Monday. Quiet weather made it possible for crews to put out fire in pockets of smoldering landscape and vegetation.

The designation of particularly dangerous situation still has a lot of new uses. The office used a stronger warning on Tuesday because of the ongoing fires around the region, and the forecast was always right between high level and not.

Ryan Kittell, a forecaster in the Los Angeles office, said that someone filling out a brackets every March was the same as someone filling out an N.C.A.A. He said that at some point, even if you are the best, you won’t have a forecast verify.

James Brotherton, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Los Angeles, said he would much rather have a forecast be wrong if it meant there was “less pain and suffering.”

Sometimes, a storm will overperform the forecast, and sometimes it will under perform. In meteorology, both eventualities are considered “busted forecasts.” While forecasters who predict an especially extreme event might be happy if the conditions aren’t as bad as they had predicted, they know that if the forecast is off by too much, people will trust future warnings a little less.