NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/opinion/syria-assad-russia-putin.html
Politics

The Future of the Middle East has changed since Al-Assad fell

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Turkey as a central force shaping the future of a post-Assad Syria: What is it like to know about the Assad regime?

The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, especially around questions of whether the rebels can consolidate control and how they will govern if they do. As a new reality sets in, a change in regional power dynamics is already taking shape that will cause Turkey to play a part in shaping the future of a post-Assad Syria.

The collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad not only upends decades of Assad family rule in Syria, it also promises to realign power across the Middle East.

Turkey is poised to expand it’s influence. Ankara has complex ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which led the regime-toppling offensive. Turkey does not openly collaborate with H.T.S. but maintains quiet lines of communication and influence. The group will deepen its influence in Syria when it becomes a key H.T.S. interlocutor and bridge to the international community. It will most likely use this new position to keep Kurdish power in Syria in check and to try to facilitate the return of 3 million Syrians who have fled their homes.

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