Immigration Surge has been the biggest in U.S. history
What Happens Next in the Rise of the Immigration Crisis? Analysis of Recent Immigration Using Census and Census Data from the A.C.S., Goldman Bank and Oxford Economics
An annual census survey, known as the American Community Survey, shows net migration of only 900,000 from 2020 to 2023. According to estimates by the C.B.O., Goldman bank and Oxford Economics, net migration exceeded two million people during those years.
What happens next is less clear. During the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump promised to conduct mass deportations, and many Americans favor the policy. In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in October, 57 percent of voters said they supported deporting immigrants who were living in the country illegally.
The process of finding, catching and deporting millions of people wouldn’t be easy. The policy could hurt public support if it affects immigrants who have been in the country a long time. TheObama administration deported almost 400,000 people a year compared to the 300,000 deported by the Trump administration.
The recent immigration surge has probably ended, even if the number in a second Trump term is the same. Mr. Biden has been cracking down on illegal immigrants since the summer and Mr. Trump has promised even tougher border policies when he takes office. Many would-be immigrants will be less likely to try to enter the country, knowing that their chances of success are lower.
There is an historical echo with a century ago. The 1924 law tightly restricted immigration was a result of the late 1800s and early 1900s immigration wave, which sparked a political backlash. Those restrictions remained largely in place for more than four decades.
The use of census and C.B.O. data from 2020 has been used in the Times analysis of recent immigration. We used experts from the government and elsewhere to pair the data sets.
The data is based on surveys. The data for the C.B.O. comes from both surveys and records from various government agencies. Data from 1850 to 2000 comes from the decennial census; from 2010 to 2019, data comes from the American Community Survey; and from 2020 to 2023, it comes from the A.C.S. and the C.B.O.
Despite the accuracy of the C.B.O estimate, the central conclusions of our analysis remain, even if the Goldman Sachs estimate is more accurate.
The immigration surge is overstated due to the analysis ending in July 2023. (The census’s main population estimates are for July 1 of the listed year.) Immigration remained high for about 12 months after the summer of 2023, until Mr. Biden’s crackdown.
The foreign-born population of the US increased in July to around 15 percent, according to data from Goldman Sachs. C.B.O. suggests the share was about 16 percent. In 2020, the share was 13.6 percent. The previous high of 14.8 percent occurred in 1890.
