The Senate seats most likely to change are in the next few years

Dolan: Where do we stand? On the possibility that Trump would run for reelection 2024, according to Sen. Matt Dolan

The president of Senate Majority PAC, a group that is associated with Senator Chuck Schumer, said that some of the primary noise on their side suggests they have not learned much yet. “There’s plenty of things for them to be nervous about.”

The three-term Ohio Sen. has already said he will run for reelection in 2024. A measure of political resilience in a GOP-trending state can be seen in the fact that Brown is the only Democrat to win a statewide race over the past decade. Trump carried Ohio by 8 points in the two most recent elections. Brown defeated Jim Renacci by nearly 7-points in the last election.

Just as they did in the 2022 race for the state’s other Senate seat, Republicans could face a crowded field of candidates. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, is running again after placing third in the GOP Senate primary last year. Other potential candidates include Attorney General Dave Yost, Secretary ofState Frank LaRose, Representative Warren Davidson, and a businessman who is no longer running for Senate.

Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, is already exploring the boundaries of what constitutes acceptable criticism of Trump. “What we witnessed nationally should convince us the country is ready for substantive candidates, not personalities and election deniers,” he wrote in a recent email to Republican county chairs in Ohio. But he said he would support Trump if he were the nominee.

The State of the Senate: What Do West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and the Governor J.J. Sinema Really Want to Do?

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is interested in the decision of Sinema to become an independent. Manchin told reporters that he doesn’t know how you get more independent than him. “I look at all of these things, I’ve always looked at all of these things. I have no plans of doing anything at the moment.

The governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, is considering running against Manchin in the future, but the man who has served in the Senate since 2010 says he is not concerned. The candidate admits that Justice would be the toughest to face, but insists he could still pull off a victory.

The party needs to defend 23 of 34 seats up for grabs this cycle in order to keep its majority. Republicans need a net gain of one or two seats to get back into the Senate, based on who will win the White House in four years.

Plus they’ll have to hold onto Democratic seats in GOP terrain, such as in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – not to mention keep their seats in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. The map provides them with scant pickup opportunities, since Republican incumbents are mostly running in ruby-red states or states that have trended to the GOP, like Florida.

As the cycle gets underway, how these Senate races play out could depend on several factors. President Joe Biden hasn’t officially announced his intentions, which is a sign that he’s seeking reelection. Trump is the front-runner for now in the 2024 GOP presidential race as the field is just starting to take shape.

The environment and mood of the country will help shape the contests up and down the ballot as well as the central campaign issues. Voters’ main concern is the state of the economy. There are signs that culture issues, including parental rights, are poised to drive the debate within GOP primaries and could emerge as general election flashpoints.

The Senate Republicans weren’t able to exploit a favorable environment for them in 2020 because of several flawed candidates, who were elevated by Trump. Already this year, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Steve Daines and other GOP leaders have sent signals that the committee could get involved in primaries if it means avoiding nominees who could cost the party in the general election.

Things have gotten dire for Democrats in the recent cycles, but we have some really good folks that can run, according to Tester, who noted that there are some good folks in the wings. “We haven’t had the best of luck the last few cycles in Montana but I think that’s as much self-inflicted as it is the state turning red.”

The enigmatic State of the Union: Jacky Rosen, Tammy Baldwin, and Elissa Slotkin in the early 2020 Buckeye State

Brown enters the cycle with $3.4 million in his campaign coffers as he gears up for what could be a bruising and expensive battle in the Buckeye State.

Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection in a state that Biden carried by about 2 points in 2020 and that will again be competitive presidential turf in 2024. If she doesn’t break out her own brand, the Republicans will link her to the national Democratic Party.

Republicans are considering Senate bids and include election deniers like failed 2020 nominees, which includeBlake Masters, who lost a bid for Senate. Lake met with NRSC officials earlier this month, CNN reported, but she’s also holding events in Iowa, which would suggest interest in a different federal office. The lesson for the Arizona GOP over the last few years is to cater to the more extreme Trump base in the late summer primary, but still appeal to voters who are more conservative in the general election. The GOP rebuttal to Biden’s State of the Union address was delivered in Spanish by a freshman congressman who had been seen as a potential candidate.

The first woman to be elected to the House and then the Senate in the same year, and with more than $4 million in the bank, she should be able to raise funds quickly when faced with a potential challenger. In a difficult environment for Democrats, Republicans came close to knocking off the Silver State’s other senator, Catherine Masto, last year.

Republicans Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general who lost to Cortez Masto last fall, and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown, an Army veteran who lost to Laxalt in the 2022 Senate primary, could run again.

In more contested states, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen said she is running, as did Ohio’s Sherrod Brown. In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin plans to announce her plans in the spring after the upcoming elections.

In Michigan, where Stabenow’s retirement is leaving Democrats with an open seat in a swing state, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is eying a run and could get some implicit help from the outgoing senator herself. Stabenow has spoken with a lot of prominent Michigan Democrats by phone, but she hasn’t tried to make the fieldclear, and has just offered advice on the challenges of running statewide.

The likelihood of a strong Democratic recruit running in the Wolverine State moves this contest slightly lower on the list of seats most likely to flip, even though an open seat would typically cost Democrats more money and be harder to defend. Possible Republican candidates include newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two successive Senate races, and former Rep. Peter Meijer, who lost a 2022 primary. It could be more difficult for him to win the GOP primary if he were to vote to impeachTrump after the January 6 insurrection.

First elected to the Senate in 2006 and most recently reelected by 13 points in 2018, Casey comes from a politically influential family in the Keystone State. While his dad was a leader in the anti- abortion movement, the younger CASEY often votes in favor of abortion rights even if he doesn’t like it. In January he was diagnosed with cancer but has a good chance of survival.

Pennsylvania Republicans lost the Senate and governor’s races in a row with Trump nominees. Although he lost the Democratic nomination for the US Senate in the state he had moved to after endorsing Donald Trump, a wealthy former hedge fund executive could make an attractive challenger for the GOP.

There is a steep dropoff in competitiveness once you get to the top eight races. Florida used to be a battleground, but has shifted to Republicans in recent years. Both Ron and Marco were re-elected last year. Democrat Val Demings was a top-tier recruit who raised gobs of money and still lost to Rubio by 16 points.

Rick Scott has a history of razor-thin general election wins, which is why he is the GOP’s nominee for US senator. The agenda Scott proposed when he was head of the NRSC ruffled feathers among Republicans and led to a revision by him, but Democrats are sure to take advantage of it.

But with Democrats defending so much turf this cycle, it’s hard to see the party investing heavily in trying to flip a Senate seat in Florida during a presidential year, especially given the vast personal resources Scott can plow into his campaign. A former member of the US House of Representatives including a moderate who was a Democrat in Florida, is being mentioned as a potential Democratic challenger.

Beto O’Rourke got national attention and raised a lot of money, but he came up a bit short against Ted Cruz. Cruz is being viewed as a potential presidential candidate in twenty four years, but his focus is currently on trying to win a third term.

Manchin, 75, just doesn’t know if he wants to do it again as he looks back at the last several years – especially in the 50-50 Senate in the last Congress where he was at the peak of his power in the chamber and played a central role shaping major laws. The question Manchin is weighing: whether he’ll have the same kind of impact with another six years.

Sen. Mitt Romney and the 2024 map: Who’s going to decide which senators will run? How many statewide representatives are there?

Romney will decide by the middle of April if he’ll run again, and he’s ready to take on the MAGA wing if he does.

Romney said that people know that every action has a consequence, and that they accept the consequences for the actions they think are right. He then added bullishly: “If I run, I’ll win.”

As the 2024 landscape begins to take shape, the senators’ decisions about their political futures will dramatically alter the map and hold major ramifications for the makeup of the institution itself.

For Democrats, the concern is the most acute. They have a difficult road ahead to maintain their slim majority, with 23 seats to defend compared to 11 for the GOP.

“I’m doing everything I can to help Manchin in West Virginia,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told CNN when asked if he were concerned that the conservative Democrat might hang it up, referring to legislative actions.

“Clearly, it’s important for them to run,” said Sen. Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat who chairs the Senate Democratic campaign arm, when asked about Tester and Manchin. I don’t know where they are. I have spoken to them but they just want to work through personal issues for themselves so as to what they do. So we just have to give them time to think that through and I look forward to their answers.”

This is a list of red states where the only statewide elected official left is a Democrat. Daines said that it is Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio. “These are going to be spirited races.”

Democrats acknowledge they have close to no backup plans in Montana or West Virginia. But they have been heartened by the polls that are being released publicly by Republican groups in those states, showing their numbers have been better than expected – and perhaps encouraging – for the incumbents.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/politics/senate-2024-map-retirements/index.html

Rep. Chuck Embryon discusses a possible candidate in the House of Representatives who won the general election, and what he thinks about him

Manchin said in the interview that it was not his factor. “I’m not weighing that because of my, what it might do to the numbers as far as up here. I have been at this for a long time. This term being up, there’ll be 42 years I’ve been in public service so I’ve given everything I possibly can.”

The chairman of the defense committee thinks that he can get a lot of good things done if he takes the time to think over.

Daines was reticent when asked about the potential candidacy of a hard-right Republican who lost to Tester in the last election. The race is winnable even though candidates have not yet declared, and the field will get sorted out.

And after last cycle’s GOP debacle, where several Donald Trump-aligned candidates petered out in the general election and effectively cost them winning the majority, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell is determined not to allow that to happen again.

McConnell’s close ally John Cornyn favors focusing on candidates who can win in the general election. We had some great candidates, but they were not good enough. The base needs a person who can have a broader appeal. That was one of the most important lessons of this last cycle.”

Although many Republicans are jittery about Lake running for Senate in a Republican state, she met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

“I want to see a candidate who can not only win a primary, but can win a general election,” Daines said when asked about that visit, not commenting on Lake directly.

No two Republicans are the same, but Senate Minority Whip John Thune told all of the potential candidates that they should be talking about the future not the past. I think it’s a bad idea to build your campaign around the theme of a stolen election. We have seen that before. I think she has to talk about the things that matter most to the American people if she decides to do it again.

But some Democrats are angry at their leaders for refusing to say if they’ll back their nominee, especially backers of Rep. Ruben Gallego, the party’s leading candidate in the race.

Democrats are worried that Gallego and Sinema might split the vote and give Republicans a victory, but he says only a strong Democrat can win.

“I absolutely support Sen. Sinema,” Murkowski said, noting she’s also backing Manchin. “She’s not afraid to take on hard things, and I’m gonna be supporting her too.”

Some of the Democratic incumbents in Delaware and Maryland have not made a final decision to run, which could lead to a shakeup that could bring in more diversity.

Ted Cruz is running for a third term in the Texas Senate, while Colin Allred is considering whether to mount a serious bid to oust him.

Republican recruitment efforts in the state are also up in the air, with a push for newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two previous bids for the Senate. GOP leaders believe that if he passes, Peter Meijer could be one of the other candidates.

While several potential Democratic candidates have decided not to run, other political players in the state remain unsure about Slotkin’s statewide strength and have continued talking privately about finding an alternative.

Finding a candidate who could run strong in a city like Detroit where Democrats rely on high turnout is a major topic of discussion. A person familiar with Gilchrist’s thinking says the lieutenant governor is very seriously considering running and is expected to make a decision over the next month.

Meanwhile, several Democrats in Michigan tell CNN they have been surprised by outreach they’re getting from “The Good Doctor” actor Hill Harper, whose political experience mostly relates to being Barack Obama’s law school roommate, but who owns a coffee shop in Detroit and has gotten involved with the local business community there. Harper did not return a request for comment.

Stabenow said that she wanted someone who was strong, effective and able to raise money and win. “But I’m talking to everybody.”