How Syria’s revolution could affect the Middle East

The Six Day War of the Syrian Resistance Network: What Happens Around Comes Around, President-Elect Donald Trump, and the Turkish Consultative Council

I have been arguing for a few weeks that Israel inflicted an equivalent of a Six Day War on Iran and its resistance network, and this would have dire consequences. Syria suffered a devastating defeat in the 1967, which resulted in the Assad family taking power in 1971. What goes around comes around.

That award goes to the President-elect Donald Trump, who said that Syria was a mess and the United States should not deal with it. This isn’t our fight. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” The keystone of the entire Middle East is Syria. The collapse is creating new opportunities and dangers for everyone in the region. We have a bunch of U.S. troops stationed in Eastern Syria, so staying out of this is not an option. We need to figure out our interests and use the events in Syria to drive them, because everyone else will be doing just that.

There is a big U.S. interest. This is also a no-brainer. It’s believed that the uprising in Syria will lead to a pro-democracy uprising in Iran. In the short run, it is sure to trigger a power struggle between the moderates there — President Masoud Pezeshkian and his vice president, former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif — and the Revolutionary Guards hard-liners. We need to shape that struggle. The events in Syria, on top of Iran’s military defeat by Israel, have left Tehran naked. Iran will have to either choose between getting rid of the bomb in a deal with Trump or keeping the regime because of this new situation. Mr. Trump, we can’t have anything to do with this.

There are still many developments to come. There are a lot of countries that have interests in Syria.

The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. In addition, Turkish construction companies are well placed to rebuild Syria, ravaged by more than a decade of war.

For starters, he would like to shape a new government in Syria to his liking, said the Middle East Institute’s Gonul Tol, author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria.

Some changes are obvious. Syrians who fled the country’s vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The gates are swinging open at the country’s notorious prisons, freeing thousands. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of oppression.

The US has been fighting the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and defeated the group just five years ago. U.S. troops are trying to prevent a resurgence of the organization. Most of the Americans are in northeastern Syria, with a few in the far south.

President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He said Assad’s removal was both a chance and a risk, and that the US would work with Syrians to put together a new government.

An American aid group said U.S. forces have provided humanitarian assistance to people who have fled to the south of Syria.

“If you spoke to any of these people and you asked them about the United States military, and you asked them about the relationship between the two, those Syrians love the American military,” Moustafa said.

How Syria’s Revolution Could Reshape the Middle East: Iranian Embracing the “Axis of Resistance” in the Early Syrian Civil War

Tehran has been dealt a series of major setbacks in the past. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the “axis of resistance.” They’ve been tumbling for the past year.

Iran was very critical to Assad as he fought to keep his job during the civil war that erupted in 2011. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards maintained a strong presence in Syria until pulling out last week, just ahead of rebel advances. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has been weakened by its war with Israel and Hamas has suffered a huge loss due to its war with Israel.

Iran and its proxies in the region will be hurt by the loss of Syria. And that’s why I think right now the leaders in Tehran must be feeling quite anxious,” said Gonul Tol, with the Middle East Institute in Washington. “This is a moment where Iran’s regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, and at a time when the regime at home is being questioned by millions of Iranians.”

But Russia is now preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and carried out only a few airstrikes as Assad’s regime collapsed, demonstrating it was not able or willing to provide significant support.

Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. They are Russia’s only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia’s previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence.

Source: How Syria’s revolution could reshape the Middle East

Damascus: An Israeli-Syrian War for a Regime Overthrown by the Assad Government of Bashar al-Assad

Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Assad kept the frontier between Israel and Syria relatively calm, even as the region was aflame.

Israel will now face a Syria that’s highly unpredictable and where Islamist groups could assume a prominent role. Israel has been fighting the Hamas in Gaza group and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon for the past year. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria.

The strategic territory was taken over by Israel in the late 1960s after defeating Syria in the 1967 Mideastern war. Israel’s continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of friction, regardless of who emerges in power in Damascus.

We got to Damascus early Monday after passing strange scenes on the highway to the city from Lebanon. Scattered across the main highway to the Syrian capital are newfound relics of the government of Bashar al-Assad whose oppressive rule has defined the country for decades.

The road was littered with abandoned Syrian military tanks Less than a day after the rebels took Damascus, the road was littered with abandoned Syrian military tanks. Posters of Mr. al-Assad were on billboards over the highway, but most had been torn down and destroyed.

Drivers and passengers are typically questioned by Syrian intelligence and security forces for many hours on end, but the check-points were empty. A few miles from the border, a body of a man in military uniform lay sprawled on the ground next to an abandoned pickup truck.

There were signs of lawlessness that people were afraid could take the country, as well as a celebration over the fall of Mr. al-Assad.

A store just across the border from Lebanon appeared to have been broken into with bottles, chocolates and bags of snacks strewn across the floor. The doors of some cars along the roads were flung open because their windows were broken.

Victor Dawli, 59, walked the night before his own death in Babsharqi, the city center of Damascus

Nearby, one young man stood in front of an abandoned tank taking a selfie. He then picked up his toddler, placed him on top of the tank and told him to hold his fingers up in a V for victory before taking a photo.

In Old Damascus, the centuries-old city center of winding, narrow alleys, Victor Dawli, 59, stood in his apartment’s entryway, a cigarette in hand. As a truck carrying Syrian rebels passed, Mr. Dawli waved. One fighter, clutching his rifle and hunched over in the bed of the truck, nodded in response.

Mr. Dawli’s neighborhood, Babsharqi, is home to mostly Christians, many of who supported the Assad government and now fear they could face retribution from rebels and others who were part of the uprising.

As dawn broke on the second day of life in Syria without Mr. Assad, there was a sense of unease in the neighborhood, as people here walked a tightrope. Some have kept their heads down and stayed inside their homes. Others like Mr. Dawli say they have secretly supported the rebels from the start of their offensive.

When one neighbor passed by, Mr. Dawli shouted to him: “Good morning, congratulations!” The man gave him a blank stare, then hurried down a nearby alleyway.