Ireland votes in a closely-run election, where incumbent leaders hope to stay in power

The Times of Elections: An Analysis of Sinn Fein’s Disruption and the Implications for the Ireland’s Tory Party

“Isn’t it the beauty and the complexity of our system that when the clock strikes 10 o’clock tonight, there’ll be an exit poll but that won’t even tell us the outcome of the election,” he said.

The polls close Friday at 10 pm and an exit poll will give a clue about the results. Counting ballots begins on Saturday morning. Full results could take several days, and forming a government days or weeks after that.

Ireland has a system of proportional representation with voters ranking their preferences and multiple lawmakers being elected. That makes it relatively easy for smaller parties and independent candidates with a strong local following to gain seats.

Opposition party Sinn Fein achieved a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.

They formed a coalition after the election that ended in a virtual dead heat and they decided to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach. Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin served as premier for the first half of the term and was replaced by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022. Varadkar unexpectedly stepped down in March, passing the job to current Taoiseach Simon Harris.

The Irish Houses, Schools and Hospitality Crisis: The Identity of the Monk Hutch and Far-Right Candidates in the Ireland Election Campaign

This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.

As in many other countries, the cost of living — especially housing — has dominated the campaign. Ireland has an acute housing shortage, a legacy of failing to build enough new homes during the country’s “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the economic crash after the 2008 global financial crisis.

“There was not building during the crisis, and when the crisis receded, offices and hotels were built first,” said John-Mark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold.

McCafferty stated that Ireland has resources, but is attempting to address historic infrastructural deficits after a decade of economic growth.

Immigration is a challenge to a country defined by emigration that is being tackled by the housing issue. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.

This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. The worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades was caused by a year ago, when a man stabbed children outside a Dublin school.

Ireland does not have a significant far-right party but far-right voices on social media seek to drum up hostility to migrants, and independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. Sinn Fein appears to be in trouble due to the issue as working class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.

Opinion polls suggest voters’ support is split into five roughly even chunks — for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.

The polls show Fine Gael is in a close race with the other parties, but Sinn Fein believes it has some steam left and is not likely to win powerunless the other parties drop their opposition to working with it.

Analysts say the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers.

“It’s a question of which minor group will support the government this time,” said a political scientist at Dublin City University. “Coalition forming is about making a statement about what is essentially the same middle-of-the-road government every time.”

Matt Carthy said that Sinn Fein could emerge from these elections as the largest political party.

The exit polls in Ireland reveal equal share of the country’s largest party: a study by Ipsos B&A

Pollster Ipsos B&A asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had cast their ballots. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

DUBLIN — An exit poll in Ireland’s parliamentary election released late Friday suggests the three biggest parties have won roughly equal shares and the country is headed for another coalition government.