The demographic groups that could decide the election are listed

Demographics of the 2020 Latino Election: Donald Trump’s Disappearance in the House of Representatives and the Democratic Legislator

Despite that approach, Trump actually gained among Latinos in 2020. Biden won them in the seven most closely watched swing states, but by less than Clinton did in 2016.

The opposite direction was taken by Trump. Similar to what has been successful for right-wing strongmen in other countries in the past, he demonized immigrants and used a nativist and nationalist message to juice his base.

The RNC has stated that they need to embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. “If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”

The former Texas governor embraced comprehensive immigration overhauls, but was blocked by members of Congress in his own party. It’s been a similar story with every immigration push since.

They could be particularly influential in Arizona and Nevada, where they made up about 1 in 5 voters in 2020. They are notable parts of the voting populations in other swing states. In North Carolina they are four times more popular with eligible-voters than they were in 2008. In Georgia, they are just over 7%, having doubled since 2008.

White Voters are the largest voting group. Republicans have been dominant with them in the last 20 years, but with the growing Latino and Asian American populations, white voters have been on a sharp decline as a share of the electorate since the 1990s.

But pre-election polling suggests Harris, who would be the first Black woman to be president, could win them by the smallest margin of any Democrat ever. The latest NPR poll had her winning just 78% of Black voters.

A lot has been made in the election of Trump trying to entice young Black men from the Democratic Party. It is difficult to tell how real that is because of the large margins of error in national polls.

In 2008 Obama won the majority of the Black voters, with 23% of the electorate. In 2020, Biden won 92% and they were the same share of the electorate, according to exit polls. That’s not a huge difference.

Pair that with Trump’s apparent depth of support with men this year, the gender gap could be the widest in any presidential election ever. In 2016 and 2020 the last two elections were very wide. The latest NPR poll showed it was a whopping 34 points.

Democrats hope that number goes even higher this year, given the party’s intense focus on women’s reproductive rights, and the fact that this is the first general election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

In six of the seven states, Trump won by less than they did. She has made that a critical piece of her strategy, and it will take a lot of hard work to replicate Biden’s inroads.

White voters will vote less if they don’t have a college degree. White voters with college degrees had long been reliable Republican voters. In the year 2020, Biden won them narrowly.

Below is a guide to the groups to pay closest attention to on election night that could tell the story of how — and why — former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris wins.

If the polls are to be believed, this presidential election is expected to be tight. There are important shifts happening in American politics beneath the close of the head to head numbers.

Obama was close enough in 2012 to win a second term. Clinton, though, fell off in those areas in 2016, and Trump won the election. Harris has done better than Biden in the suburbs according to pre- election polling. That’s likely going to have to hold for her to have a chance of winning.

The Republicans have a bigger advantage in rural areas now that Trump is in office. Biden won the suburbs narrowly in 2020, and he won the election, as did Obama in 2008.

There’s another thing to keep an eye on though: Union voters are changing. They’re becoming younger and more white-collar — and not entirely the stereotype of white, male working-class voters of the 1960s.

Democrats have dominated with union voters over the years. That helped insulate them in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan, which have high concentrations of white, working-class voters.

Al Gore won voters in their 50s and 60s when he ran for president in 2000 but he failed to win voters over the age of 65. White voters who have degrees are one of the highest persuasion voters, which is why it is important.

But voters 18-29 years old broke for Obama by almost 50 points compared to just 17 for Biden. They turned out to be a bigger percentage of the electorate in 2008 than they were in 2020.

Harris has been behind the group in polls. This is a group that has a lower rates of turning out, and according to a recent survey, they are not likely to vote in this election.

But incendiary comments by a comedian at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” threaten to hurt Trump in places like Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign has been quick to point to this and other racist rhetoric as part of their argument for Latinos to vote Democratic.

Crisscross Campaign Trail Days Out from Election Day: Former President Donald Trump and Republican Sen. J Ann Selzer in Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia

It’s possible that tens of thousands of votes could be cast in a few swing states by the time Americans decide their new leader on Tuesday.

While Vice President Harris was campaigning for young voters in Michigan, former President Donald Trump was campaigning for people in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

During his speech at the Lancaster Airport, Trump told his supporters that the election is being stolen, just as he had done in the lead-up to the 2020 election.

“We’re fighting like a son of a gun and we have many crooked people out there,” Trump said while pointing at the press. “We’re fighting. They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing. Look at what’s happening. Look at what’s going on in your state every day. They’re talking about extending hours and stuff.”

The former president gave no evidence of election malfeasance and cast doubt on voting machines, saying that tech billionaire Musk had been pushing misinformation regarding the electoral process.

He also took swipes at a Saturday poll by J Ann Selzer, the widely respected Iowa pollster, that shows Trump 3 points behind Harris in Iowa — a state Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.

“Kamala broke it and we will fix it, and we’re going to fix it fast,” said Trump after arriving more than an hour late for his event. “America will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than ever before.”

Source: Trump and Harris crisscross campaign trail days out from Election Day

A Black Church in a Swing State: A Campaign for a Better Black Lives: The Case of Susan Harris, R.C. Anderson, M.L. Tomlinson, I. Kac, S.J

For the fourth Sunday in a row, Harris attended a service at a Black church in a swing state. She was going to campaign at a barbershop in the neighborhood and then visit a restaurant in the livernois district. She will have a rally at Michigan State University on Sunday night.

Black voters and college students are important for the Harris campaign in states like Michigan, where the race is close.