The race is very close for Michigan, so there are some important factors that could decide it
Where Gaza Protest Voters Stand Before Election Day: An NPR Perspective on the State of the Art and the Politics of the Second World War
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Source: Where Gaza protest voters stand ahead of Election Day
The uncommitted movement: where is the president going? A conversation with Kamala Harris at a Flint, Michigan, governor’s lunch meeting
MASTERS Yeah, I mean, it could be. On Friday, Harris met briefly with a group of Arab American leaders in Flint, Michigan. That is a key swing state. Uncommitted national group – they tell me they weren’t part of that discussion, though they met with her back in August very briefly. The director of outreach said that Harris has been “steadfast in her support of the community.” But we’re going to have to see how this moves forward as we bear down on Election Day.
DETROW: Clay, I feel like this got a lot of attention when the people voting uncommitted in Michigan far surpassed the margin by which Biden beat Trump four years ago. Polls showing an incredibly close race – IS this protest vote enough to tip things in favor of Trump in some of these states?
DAN ENGELHART: I have started to have to have some of those conversations as people have been reaching out to me. It’s hard. I can’t tell people to do something that I’m not ready to do, and I can’t currently vote for this. It seems that there won’t be any change.
MASTERS: I have heard from some people that they will vote for Harris. Some say maybe a third party. They all are very clear with me they don’t want Trump back in the White House. A delegate from Minnesota who’s done a lot of door-knocking for Democrats said that people have started asking for his opinion.
MASTERS She says that she won’t cast her ballot at the top of the ticket. But she stressed people should still go out to vote, especially in the down-ballot races.
The leaders of the uncommitted movement are in a tough position as an example of how difficult it can be to endorse a candidate like Donald Trump or Harris. This is a decision that each person will have to make. I spoke with the cofounder of the national uncommitted movement, who lives in Michigan, and he said that he has family in the occupied West Bank.
On Friday, in Flint, Michigan, Vice President Kamala Harris met briefly with a group of Arab American and Muslim leaders. Voters who are concerned about the Biden administration’s policies in the Israel-Hamas war, a war that will have been going on for a full year tomorrow, have been calling on Harris to speak directly with them about their concerns. Voters are already casting ballots in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Minnesota Public Radio’s Clay Masters has been following this protest movement within the Democratic Party and joins us now. Hey, Clay.
MASTERS In February, some Michigan democrats went with uncommited on their ballot rather than voting for President Biden. That pushed to voice their discontent spread to other states, like here in Minnesota. 36 uncommitted delegates were allocated to the party’s national convention in Chicago. That’s a small number compared to the more than, you know, 3,800 delegates who were pledged for President Biden and those who ultimately supported Harris. But the uncommitted delegates represent tens of thousands of Democratic voters who just couldn’t bring themselves to support the current administration and its stance on Gaza. Despite staging a sit-in, delegates failed to get the Democrats to allow a Palestinian American speaker to speak at the convention.
The Drift of Muslims and Arabs toward the Donald Trump Presidency: A Case Study of Detroit, a Wolverine State
The American Dream was epitomized by the Republican message of self-reliance, less government intrusion and social conservatism, which appealed to many including immigrant Muslims and Arabs, according to Khan.
Saeed Khan, an associate professor of Near Eastern and Asian Studies at Wayne State University, said Muslim and Arab voters were drifting toward Trump in 2016, and some continue to do so today, not only because of a push away from Democrats, but also a pull toward the Republican party’s values. After voting for the Republican ticket in August and September, many Arabs and Muslims, immigrant Muslims, now prefer the Democratic Party.
The state is part of the “blue wall,” along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that she and Democrats need to hold to avoid a second Donald Trump presidency.
“The main challenge is the enthusiasm gap,” said Ronald Brown, a political scientist at Wayne State University. He said among Black voters in Michigan, those who were in the “black leadership class” — meaning serving in government, churches, Black fraternities and sororities — were highly likely to vote for Harris. The poor Detroit residents who were susceptible to sitting out the elections are not from the party. The state picked Biden after it went for Trump four years ago, in part due to the higher voter turnout in Detroit in 2020.
But the path to victory is not easy this year. Harris and Trump remain in a close battle, as his populist message continues to resonate with white voters and union and blue-collar workers, particularly on the economy.
According to Dave Dulio, a professor of political science and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, “In places like Macomb County, with many blue-collar voters and union workers, Trump made inroads by pledged to get the U.S. out of bad trade deals and
If you shift a few workers to the other side of the line, that could affect the outcome of a presidential election, says Dulio.
Both candidates have heaped attention recently on the Wolverine State. On Oct 4, Harris met with union representatives at a firehouse. After meeting with Muslim and Arab American leaders she met with the President of the UAW at his office inFlint. In September Trump held two campaign events and in October he was in Kochville Township for a campaign event.
Michigan is a state that plays well to the strengths of the vice presidential nominees. Both Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have stumped in the state in the last month.
To better understand the key issues shaping voters’ decisions—from the economy and immigration to abortion and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East — we are in Michigan this week hearing directly from voters and political observers as part of our “We, The Voters” series.
According to the state data, Michigan has a historically low unemployment rate. Meanwhile, inflation has eased, but high costs of living remain a concern.
The state continues to suffer from the decades-long decline of automobile manufacturing, and high interest rates have constricted sales of cars, according to a September study from the University of Michigan.
Source: It’s a close race for Michigan. These factors could decide it for Harris or Trump
The Kochian War: Why the U.S. Senate is Trying to Win! Source: How the Michigan Union Could Decide It for Harris or Trump
Both parties are trying to put focus on the economy. GOP attack ads argue that Biden and Harris are responsible for inflation, while the vice president’s messaging focuses on plans to uplift the middle class and paint Trump-era tax cuts as benefiting the wealthy.
Meghan Wilson, an expert in public policy and urban development, said Harris could expand the Democratic position on economics by appealing to Black business owners and holders of student debt.
We are looking for capital for small businesses that are run by African Americans in Detroit. I think Kamala Harris is doing a great job of bringing the small businesses into the conversation,” Wilson explained.
Organized labor is a major part of Michigan’s economy. Both parties are making a play for Michigan’s union members, who accounted for 13% of workers in the state last year. According to exit polls, union voters in Michigan supported Biden over Trump and he met with union workers in Wayne, Mich., who were striking.
Porn believes Biden’s visit to workers helped him increase his union support but his policies to advance electric vehicles with tax credits were unpopular with some voters.
“You have Harris leading among union members with 63% which is almost where Biden was in 2020 with 65%, so she’s improving her lot among union members, but still, the EVs are a problem,” he said.
The national union that declined to endorse any candidate for president after they supported every other Democrat since Bill Clinton could potentially be the reason for the Harris campaign being able to break with the national union.
Source: It’s a close race for Michigan. These factors could decide it for Harris or Trump
What makes Donald Trump so successful? And why did the 2020 Michigan Black-owned primary election go so close? The case for the biden coalition and the state of Michigan
Michigan voters approved a landmark amendment to the state constitution two years ago that gives the right to abortion and reproductive health services.
Dulio pointed out that Trump’s main weakness stems from what has driven Democratic success in every election — and not necessarily abortion since it’s already decided in the state: “His character remains a key weakness. He was unpopular because of the Jan. 6 spectacle and also because of his claims that the 2020 election was stolen. That just turns off persuadable voters,” he said.
Michigan is home to one of the largest Black populations in the nation, ahead of Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina, and the largest Black-majority city, Detroit.
“What could occur is that among working class and poor Black voters, lack of interest could lead to fatigue and this may drive those voters not to vote. And in Michigan, you don’t need many. You need enough,” he said.
The Biden coalition included a group of men that Vice President Harris has struggled to win over. She said that the data shows significant gains due to increased enthusiasm among young people and people of color.
Source: It’s a close race for Michigan. These factors could decide it for Harris or Trump
How Do We Want to Address the War in Gaza and Lebanon? – Abbas Alawieh, the Co-Founder of the Uncommitted Movement, and Senator Kamala Harris
The largest concentration of Arab Americans in the U.S. is in the Detroit Metropolitan area, which is also known as the Capital of Arab America.
Abbas Alawieh, a Dearborn Democratic strategist and one of the co-founders of the “uncommitted movement,” backed Biden in 2020. He and other organizers obtained over 100,000 votes in the Michigan primary which was a protest against the war in Gaza.
The conflict in Lebanon is going to cause more pain for Alawieh as he feels more despair as the conflict goes on.
The community is grieving. So, for us to give guidance to vote for Kamala Harris, when she is part of the administration that’s actively killing their family members, it’s like giving a campaign speech at a funeral.”
Professor Dubio thinks the Uncommitted movement could have a huge impact, but he doesn’t think many of them will ultimately vote for Harris.
Abbas requested meetings with those directly affected by the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and sent letters to Vice President Harris’s team. “So far the answer is no.”
