Harris leads by a small margin over Trump

Why do they matter so much? An analysis from AdImpact: Why does the Trump campaign really need to win 270, and why does Gov. Shapiro need a candidate?

Why do they matter so much? With the states that are leaning his favor, Trump would get to 270 and would not have to beat out North Carolina, Arizona or Nevada.

1. Pennsylvania and Georgia are must-wins: It’s become clear that the Trump campaign views these two states as places it has to win. Look at its ad spending. Since Super Tuesday, Trump and his allies have spent 77% of all their ad money in these two states — $50 million in Pennsylvania and $16 million in Georgia, according to data from AdImpact analyzed by NPR.

2. The Blue Wall: If Harris wins all three Blue Wall states, as well as the one congressional district in the Omaha, Neb., area that Biden won handily in 2020, she would be at 270 without any of the Sun Belt states (provided she wins all of the states that are leaning her direction and is currently leading). It’s her easiest path to the White House, and because of that, these Blue Wall states are a key focus of the Harris campaign. It’s also why Gov. Josh Shapiro is seen as a potential Harris running mate.

The NPR maps will be updated regularly to reflect changes between now and November 5. But for now this analysis is intended to give a rough overview of where the race currently stands since Harris has gotten in — and not necessarily where it will be in the end.

For the state polling, NPR’s analysis is based on surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and DDHQ/The Hill. If a candidate had an average lead in both aggregators of 1 point or more, as of Friday afternoon, it is colored a shade of red for Trump or blue for Harris. If it was less than that, it’s yellow for “Toss Up.”

The analysis is based on more than just polling. It’s also informed by reporting from the field, conversations with campaigns and also considers the history of how states have voted in the past. We also include a map strictly based on polling (below). It shows that the Trump lead is not as large as first thought.

Vice President Harris has built a sizeable lead over the former President Trump, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and the Democratic Party has coalesced around Vice President Harris, the political world has changed.

Harris is seeing improvement in how she handles immigration, though Trump is still more trusted on that topic. Harris has an issue with abortion rights. She has a 15-point advantage.

Black voters, white women with college degrees and women who are political independents are fueling her rise. She’s doing better with them than when she first joined, and she’s doing better with the white voters as well.

Negative views of the economy are not like the way they did Biden. Trump is still more trusted on the economy, but only by 3 points over Harris (51%-48%), compared to 9 points over Biden (54%-45%) in June.

Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate. Marist interviewed 1,613 adults via cellphone, landline and online research panels in English and in Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower.

Latinos have also moved in Harris’ favor. Fifty-eight percent say they would vote for her now, compared to 51% last month. This is still below the number Biden won in 2020.

Biden was seeing double-digit drop offs with Gen Z/Millennials. Harris expands her margin if respondents have a choice of candidates other than the two major-party picks.

But now, that’s up to 81% with Black voters, 84% with Latinos and 80% with Gen Z/Millennials, closer to being on par with white voters than in previous surveys.

All of the third-party candidates are seeing their worst scores since Marist started asking about them in April. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, is down to just 5%. Professor West, who is also an independent candidate, and Green Party nominee Stein are all polling at or below 1%.

What Matters Most: What Makes a Democrat Think? How Many Are You Satisfied With Your Choice? Which Are Dissatisfied?

More than half of the people say they are not dissatisfied with their choices, but only 45% of them say they are satisfied. In June, there was a 10-point difference between people satisfied (42%) and those who were dissatisfied with their choices (52%).

While trustworthiness was the most important quality for Democrats and independent voters, a plurality of Republicans said a “strong leader” was most important to them.

Democrats traditionally need a wider advantage in that score to make significant gains – in 2022, when they denied Republicans from winning a wave of House seats, they had a 4-point edge in the Marist poll; in 2020, it was 8, but Democrats lost House seats; they were +6 in 2018 and made significant gains, however; in 2014, when Republicans won seats, Republicans were +5 on the question.

The congressional ballot and the change in numbers of seats don’t always correlate cleanly because of where the most competitive seats are that cycle. In this cycle, for example, many are in suburban areas in New York, California and around Philadelphia, where Democrats have advantages in presidential years because of higher turnout among their core voter groups.