China reports 4.9% GDP growth in the first quarter

Implications of a New Trade Envoy for China’s 2025 Growth: The Property Problem and the U.S.-China Trade War

Amid the heightening trade war, China has filed a number of complaints to the World Trade Organization. On Wednesday, the new trade envoy was named as Li Chenggang, a former assistant commerce minister and China’s WTO ambassador.

China exports more to the United States than to any other country — $438 billion worth in 2024. The staggering tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed and that Beijing has matched in retaliation will hurt, coming at a time of weak Chinese consumer demand and investment and a struggling real estate market. But China is in some respects better prepared today to hold its ground than it was during Mr. Trump’s first term.

On Monday, UBS downgraded China’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.4%, assuming current tariff hikes remain and China rolls out additional stimulus, noting high margins of error due to uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.

“Though we expect Beijing to significantly step up its efforts to replace the loss of exports to the US with domestic demand, this will likely be quite challenging,” Ting Lu, an analyst at Nomura, wrote in a research note. China’s economy is facing two drags simultaneously: the ongoing property problem and the U.S.-China trade war.

Beijing has so far resisted the U.S. tariffs, but analysts think growth in China will slow down in the current quarter.

The new tariffs on Chinese imports came from the Trump administration. President Trump also talked up his upcoming “reciprocal tariffs,” which were unveiled in early April.

The first three months of 2006–2003 China’s Gross Domestic Product, Growth, and Implications for the Economic and Trade Interplay

The growth in the first 3 months was driven by industrial activity and exports. The government said policies to stimulate domestic demand also helped boost growth.

Gross domestic product grew 5.4% in the period from January to March, compared to the same period last year, official data showed. A Reuters poll had growth expected at 5.1%.

Last year the value of direct Chinese exports to the US was roughly the same as 10 years ago, but the value of Chinese exports to the European Union soared. China also has reduced its overall reliance on trade: Exports as a percentage of China’s gross domestic product declined from 36 percent in 2006 to 19.7 percent in 2023, according to World Bank data.