Los Angeles, America’s most fire- ready city, became overwhelmed by flames
The Palisades Fire, Eaton Fire, and the Restricted Valley Fires During the Last Three Months: Prediction Center Results
That’s not to say we may not see opportunities for rain in the coming months. The region is going to be very dry through at least the middle of January because of the lack of rain. The ongoing risk for new fires and additional fire growth will hinge on bouts of low humidity with gusty winds—and any additional Santa Ana wind events could prove dangerous in the coming weeks.
Forecasters expect a weak La Niña to stick around through the end of winter, with decent odds that the pattern will fade in time for spring. It could coincide with the start of Southern California’s dry season.
Right on cue, the predominant storm track across the Pacific Ocean will remain up near the Gulf of Alaska through the middle of January, providing few opportunities for rain to make it as far south as Southern California.
There are two more moderate Santa Ana wind events in the near term, one early in the day on Sunday and the other on Tuesday. These gusts could encourage the spread of existing fires and the ignition of additional blazes.
There is a difference between the pressure of the Great Basin and the pressure of the coastal communities around Los Angeles.
The risk of fire is going to remain elevated across Los Angeles heading into this weekend according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Fire crews have been able to control the fires with the help of out-of-state reinforcements, water in the hydrants being reloaded, and wind speeds dropping. (As well as helping the fires spread rapidly, the high seasonal Santa Ana winds earlier in the week at times prevented firefighting aircraft from working to control the blazes with water and fire-retardant chemicals.) The bad news is that those winds may now be about to pick up again—and that on all other fronts, conditions aren’t likely to be in firefighters’ favor anytime soon.
Favorable fire weather requires dry vegetation, low humidity, and stiff winds. The combination of these ingredients allows fires to easily spark and rapidly spread; it was this dangerous mix that allowed the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire to expand beyond any crew’s ability to control them earlier in the week.
Officials reported five major blazes across the Los Angeles area as of Friday morning. The Pacific Palisades and Malibu area has been ravaged by the Palisades Fire which has grown to over 20,000 acres. Ten people have been killed and at least 10,000 structures have been destroyed in Los Angeles.
The L.A. County Sheriff’s Department said that at least fifteen thousand people had been forced to leave as of Saturday. On Saturday, Los Angeles County officials said they changed the county’s alert and notification system to partner with the state’s alert center while they investigate the cause behind the false evacuation alerts sent to more than 10 million Angelenos last week.
Red flag warnings have been issued through Wednesday, with 30 to 50 mph wind gusts expected and 50 to 75 mph wind gusts in wind-prone mountains and foothills through at least Tuesday, according to the NWS.
Los Angeles’s Most Fire Ready City became Overloaded by Flames: A Tale of Two Fires, One Associated with Two Wooden Houses
“There was a three story wood structure house right there between there,” he says, pointing to a neighboring property, “and that went up like a Roman candle.”
That’s clear even along the posh coast northwest of Los Angeles, where mansions mingle with older, funkier, modest homes, like in Clayton Colbert’s neighborhood, an eerie shell of its former self.
She mentions that there was less extreme conditions and less people in the time when infrastructure and development was being built.
Further complicating things are all the wooden homes here, relics of early 20th century construction that focused on earthquake survivability.
The extreme is being accelerated by climate change. The past two years have been extraordinarily wet here, building up vegetation — but this year? There’s not a single rainy season so far.
“You have embers flying miles apart, fire ignition is extremely difficult to predict or control and it’s happening simultaneously in so many places,” she says.
L.A. is a city built out into flammable wildlands, from its famous coast to rugged, densely populated canyons with one way in and one way out roads, to mountains as high as 10,000 feet.
From the beach here, the view is extraordinary — those planes, flying in pairs, skim the Pacific Ocean filling tanks in their bellies and then fly directly over the Santa Monica Mountains to douse flames. They circle back to do it.
Clayton Colbert, the Los Angeles Fire Chief, and the Los Alamos (Lasinia) Fire (1924-2005)
“We did exactly what we could with what we had,” she said. “If I had a thousand engines to throw at this fire, I honestly don’t think a thousand engines at that very moment could have tapped this fire down.”
“Listen,” he says, “if you look and see what happened in the Palisades and everywhere else, there could be 6,000 firefighters and it wouldn’t be enough.
There is a debate about whether more could have been done sooner. Some training and disaster preparedness were hampered by the recent budget cuts, according to the L.A. Fire Chief.
You hear this in the fire zones, when fire hydrants go dry. But Colbert isn’t sure anything would have mattered, given the hurricane force Santa Ana winds in the L.A. Basin.
“I’ve been doing this for 48 hours or more,” Colbert says. “There was a period here for 24 hours where there wasn’t a fire truck or firefighter or anybody actually.”
Colbert has black rings of ash under his eyes. He’s relieved his home is still standing. As we speak, his neighbor’s home is engulfed in flames. Two firefighters can’t save it.
Clayton Colbert has good perspective on that. He was a Malibu resident for 45 years and decided to stay behind when the fire exploded to be in a position to douse the flames.
