The opinion is that we are not prepared for fires like this

The California Wildfires That Went: Weather Forecasts and the Impact of Climate Change on California Wildland Fires on 2005 Santa Ana Wind

On Tuesday, Santa Ana winds swept seaward through Southern California, scattering embers and then fanning flames of a growing wildfire. The situation became dire when residents received text alerts of potential 100 mph gusts at night. There were new fires in dry brushlands that hadn’t seen significant rain in over eight months as the winds howled.

Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles at the time, told me there wasn’t a single helicopter or truck that the city could buy to put out the fires. “The only thing that will stop this is when the earth, probably long after we’re gone, relaxes into a more predictable weather state.”

The fires turned catastrophic so quickly because of unusually dry and windy conditions: “Any little spark, whether from a lightning strike or a person or a campfire is going to quickly, quickly escalate,” says Jennifer Marlon, research scientist and lecturer at the Yale School of the Environment and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. “Once a fire starts in these conditions, it’s very, very hard to get under control,” adds Kaitlyn Trudeau, senior research associate of climate science at the nonprofit news organization Climate Central.

However, while the winds aren’t unseasonal, climate change is increasing the risk of late- or early-season wildfires in California. The wind event is a particularly strong wind event, but also a dry season which begins in the beginning of January. After one of the driest springs on record, Southern California has seen record low precipitation during the wet season. As precipitation is more variable due to climate change, the overlap between the windy season and the dry season is increasing. “We’re seeing a significant amount of more, hot, dry, windy days, especially in Southern California,” says Trudeau.

While this wind event seems extreme, NoahDiffenbaugh, professor and senior fellow atStanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment, said it might be due to natural weather variability, and more research is needed to know whether it is caused by climate change.

Santa Ana winds events aren’t uncommon. It is seen by the senior meteorologist at AlertMedia every single year. These downhill winds, which originate inland, are caused by a dry high-pressure system coming from the northwest, and a low, humid pressure system from the south. It is like folding a hose in half to get rid of the water. Trudeau said that if you get a hole in the side you have a lot of pressure to get out. “That’s basically what’s happening with the air.”