How the Middle East could be changed by the revolution in Syria

Syria is the kingmaker of the United States, and the U.S. should not be involved in Syria, but the American help group is helping the Syrian emergency task force

The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. Turkish construction companies can rebuild Syria, which was ravaged by more than a decade of war.

“Turkey can become the kingmaker,” said Tol. “Turkey will stand to benefit both domestically and regionally from a new and, potentially, a very friendly government in Damascus.”

“Those who are against the Assad government are returning to Syria, but others are getting displaced. She says Assad supporters are coming to her village and that they are receiving some of them.

U.S. forces have been battling the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and largedly defeated the group five years ago. The troops are there to prevent a resurgence of the organization. Most of the Americans are in northeastern Syria and some in the far south.

President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He called Assad’s ouster both a moment of risk and opportunity, adding that the U.S. would work with Syrians as they try to put together a new government.

However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He said the US shouldn’t get involved in Syria, and should let the events play out.

The American aid group the Syrian Emergency Task Force says that the U.S. forces have given humanitarian assistance to the people who have been displaced from their homes.

“If you spoke to any of these people and you asked them about the United States military, and you asked them about the relationship between the two, those Syrians love the American military,” Moustafa said.

Tehran’s crisis in the Syrian civil war: Assad’s latest blow and the fate of Russia’s air bases in the Middle East

Assad’s downfall is the latest in a series of major setbacks for Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the “axis of resistance.” But in the past year, they’ve been tumbling like dominos.

Iran was critical to Assad as he battled to stay in power during the country’s civil war that erupted in 2011. Ahead of rebel advances, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards withdrew from Syria last week. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syria and Israel are two of the fronts of the war. On the same day that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire and a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon, Syrian rebels started making advances against the Assad’s forces on the other side of the border.

Losing Syria will hurt Iran and its allies in the region. And that’s why I think right now the leaders in Tehran must be feeling quite anxious,” said Gonul Tol, with the Middle East Institute in Washington. Iran’s regional strategy was dealt a huge blow, and at a time when millions of Iranians are questioning the regime at home.

As Assad’s regime crumbled, Russia only carried out a few airstrikes, showing how little it was willing or able to support him.

Russia has an air base and naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. They are Russia’s only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia’s previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence.

The Battle of the Golan Heights Between Hezbollah and Lebanon: Israel, the Damascus War and the War on the Sunni Groups

Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame.

Israel will be faced with a highly unpredictable Syria where Islamist groups could play a prominent role. Over the past year, Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Hamas in Gaza. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria.

Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed the strategic territory. Regardless of who is in power in Damascus, Israel’s continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of tension.

Fatima Salah picked through the rubble of her family home to read a verse from the Quran in the village of Younine. A month ago, an Israel airstrike reduced the house to a mess of bricks, mangled metal and children’s toys.

The group’s rapid advance threatens to displace thousands of Syrians loyal to the ousted regime and sever a supply chain from Iran to Syria, where Tehran supported Assad’s regime, and to Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah is based. The surprise HTS offensive gave little resistance from the Syrian military, which was destroyed by the rebel onslaught.

“The day it stopped over here, it started over there. It’s not a coincidence. It’s the same war,” Salah says. Speaking of the Sunni groups such as HTS, she says: “They are next to us, they are on our borders … Aleppo, Hama, Damascus, and then us.”

Her fear is real. The rebels who recently took over cities in Syria crossed into Lebanon a decade ago. They were part of Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS’ predecessor.

The insurgents unleashed a reign of terror in some areas, sending a message to Hezbollah, whose fighters were battling alongside Assad’s forces in Syria. Hezbollah and the army had to respond to the incursions because they drew Lebanon into the Syrian conflict.

For people like Ali Zgheib, the consequences of this violence are personal. An international law student, Zgheib balances his academic pursuits with his family’s tradition of shepherding. Like his father and grandfather before him, he herds sheep along the Lebanon-Syria border — a terrain that has become a fault line in a wider regional war.

That alliance came at a cost. The road leading to his village is lined with craters from Israeli strikes. This border is used by Hezbollah to send weapons across Syria and into Lebanon. Israel has been targeting the supply lines.

He says that he’d make a deal with the devil if it meant protecting his village. “But Hezbollah is not the devil. They’re our neighbors, the kids we grew up going to school with.”

For Nasrallah, the border beyond his village of Ras Baalbek is more than a line on a map. It’s a place of memory and pain. Looking toward Syria, he recalls crossing the hills as a boy to attend Boy Scouts there.

A decade after a revolution in Syria, Lebanon has welcomed 1.5 million refugees in the last two years and has hosted 200 million refugees according to the United Nations

A revolution in Syria is almost done after a decade of civil war. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — a jihadist group once linked to al-Qaida — has stormed across the country in recent days, capturing Idlib, Aleppo, Homs and Damascus in less than two weeks.

“The situation is not scary,” Nasrallah says. “There is no bloodshed or executions. We don’t need to worry if it stays like this in Syria. But, if the groups want to come to Lebanon, we will be prepared.”

In the mountains of Lebanon, near the border with Syria, the wind is blowing cigarette smoke from the hand of Mr. Nasrallah as he gestures toward the horizon.

Nasrallah’s Christian village sits between two wars. A fragile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel is only barely holding in Lebanon. Another, in Syria, where rebel Islamist insurgents have swept across the country, defeated government forces and toppled the dictatorial regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

According to the United Nations, Lebanon has hosted the most refugees per capita since 2012 with estimates suggesting 1.5 million Syrian refugees have resided in the country. The influx has put a strain on Lebanon’s resources and infrastructure.