Voters are split on whether Harris will fulfill her promises

The Growth of the Latino Electorate in the Last Two Elections: Implications for the Demography and the Pre-election Education Gap

In each of the last four presidential elections Latino voters have voted for the Democratic candidate by a 2-to-1 margin. Republicans came closest in 2004 when President George W. Bush was running for reelection.

Trump did not go the same way. He created a nativist and nationalist message that was similar to what has been successful for right-wing strongmen in other countries.

“[W]e must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform,” the RNC’s “Growth & Opportunity Project” stated in 2013. “If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”

The former Texas governor was stymied by Congress in his own party as he embraced comprehensive immigration changes. It’s been a similar story with every immigration push since.

Black voters may be only 13% of the vote nationally, but they are crucial to Democrats’ chances in the swing states, particularly in Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, which all have Black eligible-voter populations that are higher than the national average.

Latinos are the largest-growing group in the country. They have increased as a share of the electorate in each of the last seven presidential elections and have increased substantially as a share of the electorate in each of the seven swing states.

The race is even though Harris leads former President Donald Trump among likely voters, fueled by white, college-educated voters and Black voters. With just one day left before the final votes are cast, she continues to lag behind younger voters compared to how the Democrats have performed with the group.

There is a lot of attention paid to the fact that Trump wants to take young black men out of the Democratic Party. It’s tough to tell how real that is from pre-election polling because of how large the margins of error are with subgroups in national polls.

The education divide is prominent here. The gap is widest with women who have a college degree and men who don’t. Biden won college-graduate white women by 9 points, while Trump won white women without degrees by 27. Trump won college graduates by 3 points, but he lost to non-college men by large margins.

The gender gap could be the widest in a presidential election because of Trump’s support with men. The last two elections had wide gaps. The latest NPR poll showed it was a whopping 34 points.

Democrats hope that number NationMaster NationMaster will go even higher this year, due to the party’s focus on women’s reproductive rights and the fact that this is the first general election since the overturn of the Wade decision.

Despite rural voters making up a larger share of the electorate in 2020 than 2016, Biden also cut into Trump’s margins with rural voters, something Harris wants to do again. But if Trump blows out those margins, that could be a major reason why he becomes the 47th president.

White voters without degrees, many of whom live in rural areas, are declining as a share of eligible voters in the country. In certain states, they make up a greater percentage of eligible voters than whites with degrees. That’s true, for example, in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. White non-college voters made up a greater share of the electorate than in the previous year in swing states.

On election night, these groups should pay close attention to a story that might explain how former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris won.

If the polls are to be believed, this presidential election is expected to be tight. But beneath the closeness of the head-to-head numbers, there have been some important shifts happening in American politics.

One of the hurdles Harris has had to overcome in this campaign is her promises from her 2019 presidential bid, when she tried — and failed — to appeal to progressives to win the Democratic nomination. She has been running a more moderate campaign this time.

The suburbs have shifted to Democrats and Trump has increased Republicans in rural areas. In 2020, Biden won the suburbs by a small margin and in 2008, he won the election.

Something else to keep an eye on, though: Union voters are changing. White working-class voters of the 1960s were stereotyped of being younger and more white-collar.

Over the years, Democrats dominated with union voters. They are protected by that in the Blue Wall states, where there are high concentrations of white, working-class voters.

Drilling down into the states, one place to spotlight is North Carolina. Harris needs a big win with young voters in order to win there. There was a change in support for young voters from the Democratic party.

Young people broke for Obama by almost 50 points compared to Biden. The electorate turned out at a higher rate in 2008 than they did in 2020.

Harris is lagging behind the group in polling. This is a group that turns out at lower rates than others, and polls have indicated that they are among the least likely to say they are definitely voting in this election.

It is questionable if derogatory comments about Puerto Rico and President Donald Trump will hurt him in places like Pennsylvania. This is part of the argument that the Harris campaign has made to Hispanics that they should vote Democratic.

Respondents in a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll aren’t convinced Vice President Harris, as president, would carry out the proposals she’s put forward during this campaign, in a sign of what may be preventing her from closing the deal with voters.

The split on this question of which candidate will carry out their policies mirrors the gender divide in this election. The majority of men and women think Harris is sincere in her proposal, while a few think it’s more about politics.

She may also be holding up well because the poll found the narrowest gap between Trump and Harris on who likely voters said would be best to handle the economy, with 50% saying Trump and 49% saying Harris. Trump had previously led on beliefs about his handling of the economy.

But Harris hasn’t quite been able to seize the change mantle as part of the Biden administration, as voters were split on who most represents change: 50% said Trump, 48% chose Harris.

The results of a survey of over 1,500 adults were released on Sunday. It includes 1, 377 people who are either registered voters or likely voters. With registered voters, the survey has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error. With likely voters, it’s a 3.5 point margin of error, meaning results could be 3.5 points higher or lower.

A majority of respondents said they have already voted — and most early voters selected Harris. A majority of those who said they have not yet voted, but intend to, said they would cast their ballots for Trump.

While most of the people who voted for a candidate said they should accept the results of the election, over 4 in 10 Republicans said Trump should challenge them if he is the loser and over 7 in 10 said they were concerned about violence after the election.

The Harris campaign said that there were more than three million doors knocked on over the weekend. Trump has ramped up his events, with four rallies planned across three states on Monday.

Trump, meanwhile, continues to do best with those who identify as white evangelical voters, those who live in rural areas and those without college degrees, particularly men.

But there’s a 72-point gap between white women with degrees and men without them. white women with degrees said they believe that Harris plans to carry out what she says she will do, by a 35-point difference.

The Women Who Preserve Democracy are the Most Important Candidates to Vote: Why is Inflation, Immigration, and Abtreasure Rights Important?

Harris has been targeting Republican women, such as the daughter of a former Republican Vice President.

3 in 10 voters said preserving democracy is what they are most interested in when casting their ballot. Inflation, immigration, and abortion issues followed.

Trump voters said immigration and inflation are most important. Inflation and immigration are second and third most important after the preservation of democracy according to independents.

When voters were asked, what their second choice would be, abortion rights was second behind inflation. That was especially true for Democrats, showing just how salient and motivating the issue is for them.