The course of war may be determined by Iran’s attack on Israel

The April 2004 Israeli Attack on a Nuclear Base in Isfahan: An Example of How the U.S. and Israel Can Exchange Machetes

In recent days, American officials have been assessing how a missile exchange between Iran and Israel could unfold. The most hopeful prediction is that it will happen again in April, when hundreds of missiles and drones were shot at Israel.

After the President urged Netanyahu to take the win, the Prime Minister of Israel did not hit the nuclear facilities in Iran but rather the air base in Isfahan. The message, though, was clear: Next time, they could aim for assets Iran prizes.

The more extreme scenarios being explored this time, according to the American officials, involve Israel striking at the nuclear facilities, particularly at enrichment sites at Natanz, the heart of the Iranian program. American officials said Iran may be able to convert its bomb- grade nuclear fuel into bomb-grade in a few days or weeks. It would take far longer to produce a nuclear weapon.

In April, Israeli officials said the Iranian attack involved 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles fired toward Israel. Most were launched from Iran, but a small number were fired from Iraq and Yemen. The weapons used in the barrage were more advanced than anything Israel had seen during the first six months of fighting.

The attack caused minor damage at one military base and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from an Arab Bedouin community in southern Israel.

Tehran’s latest strike in April was designed to show restraint to Israel, and the United States is downplayed, according to Rumley

Grant Rumley is a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He said that this time, it was clear that Iran wanted to avoid the failures of April by using ballistic missiles, which travel much quicker and can overwhelm an air defense system.

Unlike the April attack where Israel had days of warning to coordinate defenses with their allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack came with only hours of advance notice.

Peter said it would only be a matter of time before Israel hit back against Iran. “One ballistic missile is an unacceptable reality for any sovereign state,” he told reporters. There will be consequences if you count one hundred and eighty.

NPR wanted to know how many casualties or damage were caused by the strike. The Israeli military does not wish to tip off Iran, according to Lieutenant colonel Peter Lerner. Our air force and air force bases remain operational.”

Lewis says he believes Iran’s latest strike was designed to show some restraint. The warheads fell on air bases that may have been used in the last attacks on Hezbollah’s leadership. He believes that it is common for Iranians to pick military targets that are linked to a military strike.

In this latest attack, Iran used new solid-propellant missiles that are more accurate, he says. Lewis and other researchers say at least some of the missiles used appear to be Iran’s newest design, the Fattah, a medium-range ballistic missile that may have a degree of maneuverability as it enters the atmosphere, allowing it to alter course and avoid interceptor missiles.

Lewis said that the images of missiles being fired out of Iran, along with pictures of debris that fell in Israel, suggests that more sophisticated missiles were used.

This time, Iran launched around 180 ballistic missiles, putting more strain on the Arrow system. “The job for the Arrow was much easier [in April],” he says.

The missiles from Iran travel much faster than those from Lebanon or Gaza. The missiles fly into space before they come down on their targets. Arrow has less protection than Iron Dome, but it is able to intercept missiles in the air or in space.

Both the U.S. and Israel downplayed the strikes. Jake Sullivan, the National Security advisor, said that the attack appeared to have been defeated. In order to counteract the Iranian assault, the U.S. navy fired about a dozen missiles from warships.

Videos posted to social media and found by NPR and Bellingcat show multiple warheads landing in the area around two Israeli air bases, one in the south of the country and another in central Israel. One video filmed near Tel Nof shows secondary explosions, which indicates that something may have been struck by a missile.