After the Iranian Missile attack, Israel is weighing how to respond
Israeli Launching of a Missile Attack: As Iran Launches Attack, Israel’s Next Move May Determine Course of War (An Analysis)
American officials are assessing how a missile exchange between Iran and Israel could unfold. The most optimistic prediction has been a repeat of what happened in April, when the United States, Israel, Jordan and others intercepted almost all of the hundreds of missiles and drones fired toward Israel.
Afterward, President Biden urged Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel to “take the win,” and Israel’s response was muted: While it fired at an air base in Isfahan, a city surrounded by some of Iran’s significant nuclear facilities, it avoided hitting the facilities themselves. The message was clear: Next time, they could aim for assets from Iran.
The more extreme scenarios being explored this time, according to the American officials, involve Israel striking at the nuclear facilities, particularly at enrichment sites at Natanz, the heart of the Iranian program. It is at Natanz, north of Isfahan, that Iran has produced its near bomb-grade uranium, which American officials said could be converted to bomb-grade in days or weeks. It would take far longer to produce a nuclear weapon.
Israeli officials said in April that the Iranian attack included missiles and drones. Some were fired from Iraq and Yemen, but most were launched from Iran. The weapons used in the barrage were more sophisticated than anything Israel had encountered during the first six months of fighting against Hamas in Gaza.
A 7-year old girl from a Bedouin community was seriously wounded in the attack, which caused minor damage to a military base.
Source: As Iran Launches Attack, Israel’s Next Move May Determine Course of War
Israel Does Not Want a Nuclear Weapon in the Light of the Tuesday Night Hezbollah Masses and Attacks in the Middle East
Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Iran would likely replicate the April attack with a combination of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Iran wanted to avoid the failure of April by using missiles that travel much faster, and can overwhelm an air defense system.
The Tuesday attack was only hours in the making, and unlike the April attack where Israel had days of warning, this time they only had hours to prepare.
“Israel has more freedom in the Iranian context compared to April, because there is no threat that Hezbollah would join,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.
Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to retaliate, in which case Hezbollah in Lebanon would be thrown into action.
But after launching a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has weakened Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran.
The Israel response may be urged by the Biden administration. With American elections coming up, the U.S. officials are unlikely to have as much sway as they did in April.
Mr. Citrinowicz said that the end of this escalates is hard to predict. The action by Israel will almost certainly result in a response from the Iranians. We appear to be at the start of forceful confrontation between us and the Iranians.”
Even an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — long a source of fear for Israel, which worries about Tehran gaining a nuclear weapon — “should be considered,” General Amidror added.
Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, wrote on social media that Israel was facing “the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years” to change the face of the region.
Mr. Bennett said that Iran needs to have its nuclear project destroyed and its major energy facilities destroyed. The tentacles of that animal are wounded and now is a good time to aim for the head.