The Election is in 10 weeks
The Times Opinion Project: Bringing Out the Kids Out of the White House for a Fun and Holographic Study of the 2020 Presidential Campaign
Times Opinion started a project this summer to follow a group of undecided voters through the election, and they began it just before the Democratic National Convention with a wide-ranging discussion about the presidential candidates. The group had very specific opinions about Mr. Trump. The January 6, 2020 attack on the Capitol was traumatic for a lot of them, some of whom were teenagers at the time. They called him a liar and traitor. He was worried he would lose an election.
When we asked them to rate Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump on a scale of 0 to 10 (with zero being extremely negative), Ms. Harris got mostly threes — she did no better than a five. Mr. Trump got fours, fives, and a seven.
If Ms. Harris was losing the battle against Mr. Trump in our first discussion, I thought she had a chance to win the war. When presidential races get down to the wire, the candidate who is less well-known and running as an agent of change often has the better chance to make a persuasive impression with a larger share of Americans who are on the fence or just tuning into the race — I think of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and the 2016 version of Mr. Trump in this regard — rather than the candidate who has a cemented negative image among many voters.
After dinnertime on Sunday, my husband got a call that he wanted to take part in an election poll. I was in the middle of getting my toddler ready for bed when he rushed into the room, holding our baby in one hand and his phone in the other, now on speaker so I could hear the questions.
When you see how other pollsters ask voters in your field, you get a real thrill as a pollster. It reminded us of how messy social science can be. Here was my husband, telling this very nice interviewer what he thought about, among other things, immigration and Tim Walz, all while pacing the hallway bouncing a bedtime-bound infant. I can only imagine what others are up to while answering survey questions.
As we near Election Day, Americans’ interest in polls will only increase. Election forecasting models are being heavily scrutinized and debated by commentators and reporters. Small shifts in polling results can trigger big headlines. As we start this post-Democratic convention week, when analysts will be combing for any hint of a bump for Kamala Harris, it’s worth keeping in mind that there are lots of things that make polling art as much as science.
