6 political observations from Biden’s decision to step aside
The First Day of The Biden Exit Debate: Democratic Donations During the Pre-Demarch and after Trump’s Convention
Jon Meacham, who has helped to write speeches for Biden, told NBC News on Sunday that “very, very few people do this.”
Many Democrats are calling Biden’s concession patriotic and selfless, in part an attempt to draw a contrast with Trump. This would be a hard decision for any president, especially for someone who has been around as long as Biden has.
This has not happened since 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson decided against running for reelection. There was an announcement made in March, not July. Like Biden, LBJ did so because the writing was on the wall. He had health concerns, and he was unpopular because of the Vietnam War.
All politicians want to be the top dog, but the numbers can move things — whether it’s polls or money. The two exert a lot of pressure on Biden to reconsider. He was in the throes of a money crisis after the June 27 debate and was falling in swing states.
Biden indicated in an ABC interview that only the “Lord Almighty,” polls showing his party losing or maybe some combination of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, current House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina could get him to step aside.
Pelosi, one of the most savvy political operators in the Democratic Party, appeared to lead the charge. She pays very close attention to the polls and listens to the swing state Democrats who saw their numbers plummet. Eventually, Biden got past denial to acceptance.
This has been among the worst three-and-a-half weeks of any presidential campaign — from the debate to former President Donald Trump’s convention to Biden contracting COVID-19.
But with this announcement, Democrats are smiling and seem energized for the first time since before the debate. It doesn’t mean they’ll win the race, but this has injected them with much-needed enthusiasm — and money. ActBlue is the largest website that processes Democratic donations and it processed $4 million in donations in the hours after Biden’s withdrawal. This is the largest day of Democratic donations since the election.
Republicans are already running their campaign as if Harris has won the nomination, even though she still has to. Trump’s campaign has dubbed her the “enabler in chief,” tying her to Biden’s biggest woes, including immigration and inflation.
They claim that Biden was too old, didn’t know where he was, and his son was likely corrupt and have enriched themselves.
She has tremendous strengths and weaknesses. Harris is younger than Biden and can (likely) prosecute the case better than he can, though she is going to have to prove that in the court of public opinion. Harris has the potential to fire up key portions of the Democratic base — Black voters and younger voters, two groups with whom Biden was struggling. She seems to have a voice when she talks about abortion rights.
Rejected the Election Map: What Are The Candidates Who Can Win the 83-Year Electoral Campaign? An Analysis of Candidate Sarah Biden
It’s not often that Democrats get to troll Republicans, but soon after Biden’s announcement, many were trying to flip the script, saying the country can’t have a president who would be 83 at the end of his term.
For someone to challenge Harris at the convention they will need the signatures of at least 300 delegates to get on a ballot. For context, Biden has some 3,900 delegates. Someone could challenge Harris, but who?
Harris is endorsed by many of the big names mentioned as a Biden replacement, including the governors of Pennsylvania and California.
First, throw out the polls. We are starting from the ground up. Before Sunday, polls had shown Harris polling about the same as Biden. The latest national NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, for example, had Biden up 50% to 48% over Trump, within the margin of error. Harris and Trump were both tied, 50% to 49%.
People were thinking of her as a hypothetical candidate. Now that Harris is the actual nominee, he’s going to face a lot of scrutiny.
She was not a very good candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2019. She struggled to convey her core values, instead saying she saw herself as a problem solver. She has faced criticism on the left and right as being too tough on crime to be California’s attorney general. She’s struggled with messaging at times as vice president, including on immigration, one of the areas Biden put her in charge of early on.
Harris will be the next president, according to a former communications director in the administration. “She’s a better candidate than she was, with a great position on the most important issue to the Democratic coalition and a majority of Americans who are anti-MAGA.”
And she has the opportunity to rejigger the electoral map. There are dangers and rewards with each of these candidates, but there are some moderates floating around like Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
Shapiro, 51, is a popular pick in Democratic circles because he’s generally well-liked, has handled thorny issues competently and is from Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has seen more ad money than any state this election. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are blocks out of the Blue Wall for the Trump campaign. They’ve targeted Pennsylvania more than any other swing state, and, as of Sunday morning, were holding onto a narrow lead there in an average of the polls.
A popular Democrat is Beshear. He has been praised for his work with both parties but he is a Republican.
Kelly, 60, is also from a swing state. He’s an astronaut married to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was shot in 2011 at a constituent event; he’s shown he can raise a lot of money for Democrats, and he could help, to a degree, blunt Republicans’ immigration attacks since he is from a border state and has separated himself some from Biden on border policy. He isn’t from a swing state with as many delegates as Pennsylvania or North Carolina, though.
In 1972, Biden was elected to the U.S. Senate as a 29-year-old. He wasn’t even old enough to serve in the Senate at the time. He turned 30 two weeks after his election.
He has always wanted to be president and has been told by plenty of people in his life that he couldn’t do a lot of things. Democrats credit him with saving democracy, after he defeated Trump in 2020. But now, reality set in that the path forward was narrowing, or potentially nonexistent.
Up First: A Psychological Update on Biden’s Race Exit and Trump’s Attempt on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Good morning. You’re reading the Up First newsletter. You can subscribe and listen to the Up First radio show for all the news you need to start your day.
It’s been a rollercoaster for U.S. politics lately. With a presidential election in just four months, keeping up with the headlines can feel like an impossible task. Before Biden’s exit from the race and the attempt on Trump’s life, psychologists said it was normal for people to feel a negative emotion in this political climate. If you are feeling sad, worried, or depressed for a long time, it could be time for an intervention. Some strategies are available according to psychologists.
