Does the US really want to expel Palestinians from Gaza?
How long will Israel and Gaza break the cycle of violence? The Pentagon’s worst postwar plan in Iraq has been rejected by the White House
Plan for the length of time you will need to bring about the fundamental changes that will break the cycle of violence Israel and Gaza have inflicted on each other over the past 50-plus years — not the time politicians think you will need. One reason the State Department’s best postwar plan for Iraq, which has still never been made public, was rejected by the White House was that Pentagon officials argued that a three-year timeline was too long. Decision makers opted for the siren song of one year or less and vastly inadequate physical or political reconstruction money, without regard for the reality that fast and cheap was doomed to fail. Instead, the United States expended more in blood and treasure from 2003 to 2011 and ended up strategically worse off than if a better postwar plan had been given the resources and time needed upfront. A repeat of Israel’s 15-year occupation of south Lebanon is not realistic nor desirable, but the more recent pattern of quick ground incursions and withdrawals is.
Israeli forces have attacked Gaza six times from 2006 until the recent siege, killing well over 4,000 people. According to the Jerusalem-based human rights watchdog B’Tselem, that figure includes 405 in 2006, 1,391 in 2008 and 2009, 167 in 2012, 2,203 in 2014, 232 in 2021 and 33 in 2022. The Palestinian civilians have taken the majority of casualties each time.
The First Five Years of War in the United States: How It Affects America’s First War, How It Failed to Win, and How to Follow It
The self-defeating mind-set that took hold in the United States not long after Iraq’s occupation was that the decision to invade Iraq was an original sin — something so wrong that it could never have come out better than it did. That mentality cuts off serious efforts to understand what went wrong in the first place.
The label of forever wars that has been firmly attached to America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan fails to acknowledge that poor planning and scant resources will always fail to secure postwar peace. It’s unbelievable that anyone could be surprised by this. But the lessons of postwar Germany and Japan that led to their prosperous democracies today, including well-resourced physical and political reconstruction and the time to succeed, were utterly misunderstood and misapplied by Washington in 2003 and 2004. Israel has been at war for the past 67 years. Poor planning is also an enemy of yours.
Finally, remember that military victory is an asset whose power decreases over time. Use the limited time wisely if Israel succeeds in defeating Hamas. What you decide to prioritize may be all you get done, so it has to lay the groundwork for constructive steps, not chaos, to follow. Recovery from disastrous decisions is almost impossible, like the U.S. decision to fire tens of thousands of government employees in order to create the Sunni insurgency in Iraq.
