Where the GOP primary stands with Trump still front and center

The First Day of the Republican Primary: The Case for a Probable Alternative to the Reionization of the Second Order in the United States

Republican presidential hopefuls are still more than four months away from their first official contest — the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024 — but, in many ways, the first phase of the race is already over.

It’s clear who the major candidates are and how they are positioning themselves, thanks to the first primary debate, as well as months of campaigning and fundraising.

Despite skipping this week’s debate and going through criminal processing in Georgia on state charges tied to his effort to subvert the transfer of power, the former president remains the near-prohibitive favorite to secure the Republican nomination.

“You see the polls have come out, I’m leading by 50 and 60 points,” Trump said in an interview with broadcaster Tucker Carlson about his decision to sit out the debate. “And some of [my opponents] are at one and zero and two. And I’m saying, ‘Do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it’s going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn’t even be running for president? Should I be doing that?

Many of the expected obstacles to his campaign — namely, the four long-looming criminal investigations — are now public. The former president is facing a variety of trials.

The federal cases, both under the purview of special counsel Jack Smith, are related to allegations that Trump retained classified documents after leaving office and to the former president’s actions leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

With trials not likely to start in any of the cases until next year, the former president has more time to think about his comeback bid.

Chris Christie vs. Asa Hutchinson: Defending the Constitution in the epoch of re-election

Only Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson demonstrated some respect for the rule of law by opposing the election of a criminal. Mr. Hutchinson said that Mr. Trump was disqualified from being president for inciting an insurrection because of the 14th amendment. Mr. Christie said the country had to stop “normalizing” Mr. Trump’s conduct, which he said was beneath the office of president. Though he was accused by Mr. Ramaswamy of the base crime of trying to become an MSNBC contributor, Mr. Christie managed to say something that sounded somewhat forthright: “I am not going to bow to anyone when we have a president of the United States who disrespects the Constitution.” Mr Christie and Mr. Hutchinson were roundly booed.

Christie said that it was important to say that the president said it was OK to suspend the Constitution. The oath you take is to preserve, protect and defend. I will always stand up for our Constitution, regardless of the political pressure.”

Suffice it to say that this was not a popular position to hold in the auditorium where the debate was held — both candidates were booed heavily. It’s not very popular in the Republican primary electorate.

In a July NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 58% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would support Trump as their standard-bearer, though there are early signs that support may be softening, at least among independents.

While Christie is more popular with general electorate than Hutchinson, both men have low poll numbers and must fight their way to the nomination.

Though Trump himself elected not to appear at the debate, Trumpism was very much present — 38-year-old businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s combative tone and embrace of far-right staples and baseless climate conspiracy theories was reminiscent of past Trump debate appearances.

“Let us be honest as Republicans. I’m the only person on the stage who isn’t bought and paid for, so I can say this — the climate change agenda is a hoax,” Ramaswamy said during a characteristic interruption. The anti- carbon agenda is a wet blanket on our economy. The truth is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change. (This is inaccurate. Fossil fuel pollution kills thousands per annum, particularly vulnerable populations like infants.

Source: Where the GOP primary stands, with Trump still front and center

DeSantis’s support crater left by the loss of a close Senator, Ron Ramaswamy, and Mike Pence

DeSantis, who is still running a distant second behind Trump, has seen his support crater since February. The Governor has cut back on his staff and his campaign chief, and is likely to confront significant money challenges in the coming months.

It is not yet time to declare the DeSantis campaign and those of Trump’s other opponents beyond saving. The candidates have nearly a year until the Republican National Convention — and there is still a lot of race left to be run.

There was no doubt that Vivek Ramaswamy’s hand would shoot up first. But even Nikki Haley, though she generally tried to position herself as a reasonable alternative to Mr. Ramaswamy’s earsplitting drivel, raised her hand. Ron was looking around to see what the other kids were doing. And Mike Pence’s decision to join this group, while proudly boasting of his constitutional bona fides for simply doing his job on Jan. 6, 2021, demonstrated the cognitive dissonance at the heart of his candidacy.