Europe’s attitudes towards refugees were tested by the crisis in Ukraine

Geopolitical Analysis of the EU Refugees Crisis: Results from a Multi-Wavelength Study of the European Demographic Margins

Each survey wave uses a different method to match the demographic margins from the populations of each country. For all main analyses, we also provide unweighted results and results based on an alternative set of weights that also account for political ideology, all of which are similar to the main weighted estimates (Supplementary Figs. 1–10). There is a summary of the sample, design and statistical analysis in Methods and Supplementary Information.

Europeans are growing wary of the number of refugees. The growing public perception that the boat is full and therefore Europe should take fewer refugees can be enhanced by the Ukrainian crisis. In light of growing concerns about soaring energy prices and inflation across Europe, we may expect the public to turn away from refugees and towards policies that first and foremost support the local population. Given the rise of populism across Europe17, we might also expect greater polarization in attitudes across the ideological spectrum, with support for refugees decreasing particularly among right-wing voters. Furthermore, even if there is increased sympathy towards Ukrainians among some segments of the European public, this might come at the expense of public support for other refugee groups, in particular refugees who are seen as culturally or economically more distant from the European host countries4. With its concentration of wealthy host nations and proximity to hotspots of political volatility, Europe is the nucleus of the global asylum regime, and the underlying support and generosity of the European public is a key component. The resilience of that regime may then be threatened by instability at Europe’s doorstep if that instability diverts Europe’s attention away from the rest of the world.

In both years, participants were more likely to favour younger refugees over older ones, women over men, and Christians over agnostics and Muslims. Being Muslim, moving for economic opportunities and not having a language skills of the host country were some of the least liked characteristics.

“There is an inherent bias in the manner in which people who are not used to otherness perceive other groups,” says Michelle Pace, who studies forced migration at Roskilde University in Denmark.

At the start of the Ukrainian refugee crisis in 2022, critics said that European politicians were more sympathetic than those fleeing other humanitarian crises. Boris Johnson stated that the UK would be very, very generous towardsUkrainians seeking refuge. At the same time, he backed a heavily criticized plan to relocate most other people seeking asylum in Britain to Rwanda. The prime minister of Bulgaria said these are not the refugees they are used to.

When studies talk about asylum seekers but they are not talking with them, it is also an issue. She says the general attitude of support in these findings isn’t reflected in the experiences of refugees she works with inDenmark.