During the week of June 26-28, the week in Ukranian: When Prigozin turned Wagner’s tanks on Russia

The “Putin’s Chef” and “Wagner Group” Mercenaries of Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia and the ‘Momentum has Arrived’

The mood in Russia appeared to be calmer on Sunday, a day after the Wagner Group halted its advance toward Moscow and averted a possible confrontation with the Russian military.

The mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin marched to the outskirts of Moscow before Prigozhin warned that “the moment has arrived when blood could be spilt” and ordered his forces to turn back.

The “Putin’s chef” and the “Wagner Group” were once close allies of Putin and have been an indispensable part of Russia’s military engagements in Africa and South America.

What will become of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group mercenaries who marched into Russia on Saturday? How will their aborted mutiny affect the war in Ukraine? These are some of the many questions swirling after a bewildering weekend of developments in Russia. The Kremlin said Prigozhin would go to Belarus without charges, but Russia’s state media reported a criminal case against him is still open. In an audio statement Monday, Prigoshyn said that the group was acting in protest of the alleged plans to destroy the church, and that this was not a coup.

Meanwhile, it’s unclear whether the Wagner Group will be disbanded and what impact such a move could have in Ukraine and other conflict zones where Wagner mercenaries have been operating.

Prigozhin accused the Russian military’s top brass of bungling the war effort in Ukraine and claimed that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and others withheld ammunition from Wagner fighters out of bitterness.

What Next Explained Putin? What Does Shoigu’s Order Really Tell Us About the Russian War? The Case of the Wagner Group

Earlier this month, Shoigu announced that members of private military companies, including the Wagner Group, would be required to sign contracts with the military by July 1.

Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank, told NPR that Shoigu’s order likely motivated Prigozhin to organize the march on Moscow.

“Prigozhin said that he would not obey it, and clearly as the clock was ticking toward July 1, he was desperate to try to think of ways to stop that order,” Alperovitch said.

Russia experts believed that Prigozhin’s ploy was to gain more resources for his fighters and increase his influence over the military strategy in Ukranian.

The theatrical uprising threw the Russian leadership off balance. Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NPR that they were not expecting anyone to challenge Putin’s authority.

Wagner forces that took part in the march would also not be prosecuted, and Wagner forces that didn’t participate would sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Kremlin added.

Others say the Wagner Group gives Putin and other officials deniability, and turning a blind eye to the losses suffered by the mercenaries allows Russia to hide the true costs of war.

The organization has faced sanctions in the past and was dubbed a “criminal organization” by the US Treasury Department.

Weiss described Putin as a “monster” for himself in theWagner Group, a group that is defacto fighting force for the Russian state but with more independence than the military.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/25/1184237150/russia-wagner-putin-whats-next-explained-prigozhin

Prigozhin and the Ukranian War: What he’s saying about the mercenaries that fought against the Ukrainian military in Ukraine

Prigozhin’s spokesperson told the Russian media outlet RTVI on Sunday that he “says hi to everyone” and would take questions once he got better cellphone reception.

The mercenaries have been conducting operations against the Ukrainian military in the war in Ukraine, and Weiss said they could continue to play a role.

After the march on Moscow, Alperovitch said that the war in Ukranian was having “minimal impact”. Prigozhin himself said that operations would continue despite his spat with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

“Prigozhin is still there. Wagner still exists. They have a lot of weapons. They’ve shown themselves to be highly capable, and the Russian Ministry of Defense have shown themselves to be incapable of defending Russian territory,” he said.

It’s important for us to be aware of where Prigozhin is going to go and how he will react, so that we can make informed decisions over the coming days.

State of Ukraine: A Radio Report from NPR’s ‘Peace Mission’ to Ukraine and the United Nations, U.S., and Russia

You can read the recaps on this page. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to NPR’s State of Ukraine for updates during the day.

A group of African leaders traveled to Ukraine and Russia on what they described as a “peace mission,” but their meetings with leaders of both countries ended without any visible progress.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said after visiting the Zaporizhzhia that the situation is “very fragile” after the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The United Nations put Russian forces on its list of shame for killing 136 children in Ukraine last year, as well as injuring hundreds more kids and attacking schools.

Allies pledged several billion dollars of non-military aid to Ukraine, including the U.S. announcing $1.3 billion, for rebuilding the country last Wednesday. And on Monday, the European Union’s foreign policy chief said the bloc will donate about $3.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine.

The Pentagon said it miscalculated how much weaponry it sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the actual value, a sum a spokesperson said would go toward future weapons drawdowns.

Nine villages have been taken back from the Russians by Ukraine so far this month. Russia says it has been foiling Ukraine’s attacks. British military officials are estimating high casualties on both sides.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1181901001/russia-ukraine-war-news-prigozhin-wagner

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Estonia on Monday and Tuesday – a preparation for a NATO summit in Lithuania

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg visits Lithuania on Monday and Tuesday in preparation for an upcoming NATO summit there. On Wednesday, Stoltenberg is due to hold talks with Estonia’s prime minister.